Come into the Trader's Den

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
Hi oilman5

Oil at the moment has not a good reputation, but this catastrophe may has a reflection of the human lives in the future and I hope it will.

We have other resources for years to power our lives, but the industry is not interested in any way to say, that this is possible in any way, as long as the profit is bigger than the investment they have to make today or the risk award they can make today.

Quick profit anywhere.

If the catastrophe is going to be bigger, they may start to use their brains for other sources than oil. So lets see what is going to happen.

But this is not the reason I am posting here.

My question to you :

"""but i know when not to play """

Could you explain that !

Take care
 
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oilman5

Well-Known Member
"""but i know when not to play """
.....Reply r personal. .....when any problem in office/family/personal health/cocky confidence/when lot of distraction.
When lies r common in economic/govt circle.........u may caught in wrong foot.
.............................
all other its ok........particularly .......buy-buy in market perverse condition and sell-sell in market with momentum divergence
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
"""but i know when not to play """
.....Reply r personal. .....when any problem in office/family/personal health/cocky confidence/when lot of distraction.
When lies r common in economic/govt circle.........u may caught in wrong foot.
.............................
all other its ok........particularly .......buy-buy in market perverse condition and sell-sell in market with momentum divergence
Hi

"""buy-buy in market perverse condition and sell-sell in market with momentum divergence"""

You may also could go more in details here.

DanPickUp
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
when fool/holders on hope can not further can bear cycle condition say around 2 yr in bear trend, mercylessly taunt by media for economic slowdown and gloomy picture...........ideally i saybuy-buy in market perverse condition .
a strong contrarian understand its the confidence barometer,not the real economy.......pumped by media hype of 5yr longterm growth.......i consider .....sell fast and be ready in weekly chart with momentum study.
hope it helps.....i am in touch with indian stockmarket around 20yr........though some time i sleep.
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hello friends,

Just to give the background - I'm struggling with market for now around more than 2 years. Though, I've not lost a lot of amount in last 2 yrs but still its not good. I never felt like coming anywhere near to my ambition of making trading as my only source of income. And this keeps me disappointed a lot. Though, I've spent huge amount of my time in mastering this art of trading.

Just last week, I identified few trades and first time ever, I was feeling so confident & sure that these stocks are exactly going to unfold as i'm expecting them to be. And this is what actually happenned. My entry timing was perfect and even exit was also perfect. I was using a new strategy now.

It was a feeling like this zigsaw puzzle is getting solved suddenly. I was feeling like ---man, I've done it and started dreaming that in a very short time now, I'll achieve my ambition of quitting job and starting full time trading. It was wonderful.

That confident feeling remained there for almost a week or so and actually, charts were looking much easier to comprehend and situation was always looking totally under control. It was like my strategy used was working perfectly.

But, the bad part is that confidence is gone now. I'm stilling using the same strategy but even if i see an entry, that confidence is not coming that surely it will go up after my entry. instead negative thoughts are coming like it can fall also from here and so on....which is making actual entry very scary.

If anyone can relate to this experience of mine, I would be thankful if you can share your experience with me here and let me know how to get that confidence back. Bcoz, I'm desparate to get into that zone of v.high confidence & a feeling that its almost conquered.

Regards,
L2T
L2T, good to see you back. I can share my experience on this. Certainly I have gone thru this.. in earlier days, when I found a system that gave great result in particular mkt condition and it seems like I have cracked the code.. Just to see that in next week, the results were not so great.. This doubt on our approach is quite obvious.. cause some part of the system behavioud that we still don't know, and hence we can't trust the system well enough now.

If I were you, I would take this sytem back to similar chart pattern days in the past and backtest it. For example, check out on Jan-2010/ nov-2009/aug-2009/july-2009/jun-2009 drops and how the system would have behaved at that time. The sytem shd give u almost similar result during those steep drops. And it will also tell u loud and clear how it behaved on following day/days/week etc. Based on that you would know whether to trade this system in next few days, or give it a break (maybe you also take a break to enjoy recent profit). Market will always be there.

You know it well that mkt conditions may not be same always. we may have different factors influencing it at differnt time. but in my view, the price reaction has more or loss similar pattern. It it just that we need to tune our eyes to spot that on chart..and use it for our benefit.

Hope this helps.
Happy Trading.
 
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AW10

Well-Known Member
Hi

There was a thread about : What drives a person become or being a trader.

This post may should be there but now it is here. Sorry

I have seen a lot of very interesting answers from very well known persons of this forum.

What drives me ?

Here is one of my motivations to trade.
Thanks Dan for sharing this video. Amazing and very nice one. It has just moved "Travel to Brazil" task higher in my to-do list. I can see why you want to live there.. What about living your dream for few days/weeks there.
Worldcup is just around the corner, their stock market is rocking, people always rock there and have great time..

Next time I should stay with brazilian neighbour so that I can listen to some nice numbers like this one..

Have fun and have great weekend.
 
For example, check out on Jan-2010/ nov-2009/aug-2009/july-2009/jun-2009 drops and how the system would have behaved at that time. The sytem shd give u almost similar result during those steep drops.
Much thanks AW10. Will try your suggestion of backtesting at different times. But, sometimes, I get a feel that i typically behave like that pigeon which on seeing the cat, closes his eyes. If my system has shown me some good results, my tendency is to ignore/not see bad part of it:)
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
Hi

I guess, some of you know what legging in means when you trade option strategies.

I had lunch with some money managers and the discussion was about back spreads.

There have been different meanings about it and I wondering if you have any comments on that ?

(a) One guy tried to tell me with all his face, he only recommend that by high volatility.

An other one had a big compliance about that and was quit angry that some one could even say or teach such stuff. He told, that this strategy was only working with low volatility and all the rest would be to risky.

He explained it that way :

I will use the Call Backspread as an example. The strategy requires selling 2 calls just out the money, and buying 3 calls further OTM. You can do it with any ratio of short calls to long calls, but try and get a net credit for the position. It is best to get the short call positions first and then leg in with the long calls, because it is always easier to buy options than sell them. (b)
I was surprised by that answer !

I always bought the first leg and then I sold the next leg.

What is your meaning or experience about that ?

DanPickUp
In my view, both trader are right in their own position. that's what they have learnt, observed and developed as belief .. so who are we tell them that they are worng.
Regarding point (a) - we don't get high volatilty enviornment always. So if we wait for that, then almost 60 to 70% of the time, we will be waiting. Though Call BackSpread (CBS) has better return profile in High Vol environment but that should not restrict us from trading them in other mkt conditions.. And IMO, high vol/ low vol etc is relative term.

On point (b) - I try to execute both leg at the same time, if broker provide me quote for complete strategy then. If not then, try to build up the complete position with minimum possible gap between opening both legs. Wider the gap, more I am risking as slippage.. There is equal chance that market may get me better price (by moving favourable) or worse price (by moving aginst me).
To reduce the cost, it is better to built the position in two lots.. i.e first open Credit Call spread and later add 1:2 CBS to it.. which effectively gives u 2:3 CBS. By taking short leg first, we are always carrying the directional risk for some time. And once the directional move develops, quite demand for options of such options also go up which drives the prices up. so I am not sure, if someone will really get the better price when move has gone against them.

In my observation, when market is falling, Puts come in demand and they start getting costly just because of demand/supply equation. And ofcourse call starts getting cheaper. Professionals use this very well to take their position using right instrument thru synthetics.. but mojority of novice option trader don't realise it.. and they construct strategy with put in falling market and with calls in rising market.

Atleast that is what is my view on it..
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
why i dont trade forex/option ? Simply i am ignorant to handle them ......so i know very little on forex/option......all math juglary r greek to me........even portfolio hedging i dont know..........so NONO .(gharka kutta gharme , no fire on me)
Only in extreme case i experiment in future, because of shorting idea[ 40long vs 1short]
so i play in stock cash in long, as i understand speculative strategy ,based on certain fundamental /psychology i buy...........if on sometime frame its showing bullish confirmed by price , i add.
yes i trade independently devoid from all suggestion.........definitely i lose , but its due to me , not by anyone else.
So soon i shall learn portfolio management ........
hope Aw10 may help
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
Much thanks AW10. Will try your suggestion of backtesting at different times. But, sometimes, I get a feel that i typically behave like that pigeon which on seeing the cat, closes his eyes. If my system has shown me some good results, my tendency is to ignore/not see bad part of it:)
So you know exactly how u react to such situations. Keep asking that question when trading, (are u closing your eyes or not ?).. And tune you mind and body to react in different style whenever you find yrself in this situation..

L2T, as a trader, we need to understand ourself first.. our body/thought process gives enough of clue to us.. but we just ignore them and handle them at conscious mind/adult mind level .. So what happens ? our subconscious /child mind takes over and show its colour.

All the best.
Happy Trading
 

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