Come into the Trader's Den

[AW10]

Hello Sis, Not all here are white knights. People in the garb of helping you try to pry out your strategy which is profitable.
As yoou are new I am warning you.. be very careful of someone already interacting with you.
All the very best.
-Gautam

Gautam, It seems you have fear/belief that some one can steal other persons system and make money from it. I remember giving u detailed reply to one such query from u in the past on your thread..

http://www.traderji.com/futures/32483-nifty-intraday-need-guidance.html

Dear Gautam, trading kisi ke baap kee jaagir nahi hai. And even if two people have same system, they will get different result from it. Trading is lot more the just a trading system or few rules. If your belief is right, then with so much info available on profitable systems on the net/ in books, why do we have so many loosing traders ?
Have u heard of Turtle Trader's and their trading system. That is a system which is making millions of dollars for some traders.. but why other traders are not following it and making money from it ?

I have written this post so that u can validate your belief and check them against the reality. We don't know how much of false belief we carry with us through out our life.. and never test them for reality.

All the best.

 

[rajputz]

yaar arti annu confuse kar gaye:rofl:....no matter for everyone...including me too... :cheers:

 

[rajputz]

Have u heard of Turtle Trader's and their trading system.

AW sir,

This is the one afl i have and i call it pivots based trading system....i am learning its working yet, as there was no material available for it...So understanding it my way (although i know some tweaks from it)....in the mean time...the person frm whm i took it called it once the turtle trading system. and i found it solid too,thats the reason this line caught my eye. Can you enlighten more about it. Or if you have some particular material about it. Please check the image.

I have the afl and its working, but if some little documentation is available it will be more easy to understand it. It is a trendfollowing system.

 

[trader.trends]

Nice ........Thanks so we can say a move in market is more probably continue for some time ??

Satyen

This year we have had 64 trading days excluding today. In the 64 days, we have had 39 days of positive close and 25 days of negative close. It is roughly the same ratio for a complete year also. As I mentioned earlier amidst the vast randomness, we have trending days which is what gives the market direction and an opportunity for us to trade.

In the following list the number stands for consecutive closes. P stands for positve close and N for negative closes. You can observe how the Ps and the Ns bunch together giving us the short trends.

3P, 2N, 1P, 1N, 2P, 1N, 1P, 6N, 3P, 1N, 1P, 2N, 3P, 1N, 1P, 1N, 2P, 2N, 2P, 2N, 6P, 1N, 2P, 2N, 4P, 1N, 4P, 2N, 4P

I have highlighted 3 or more days of the trend. As you can see there are 8 short term trends there which are tradeable. Yes we can give a higher probability that tomorrow will be a red day since today was a red day. In larger samples of a year or more this bunching together is more striking.

 

[Raghavacc]

1.We go to office late: We get excuse by giving so many reasons like traffic jam, not feeling well etc. Boss excuses. Our ego gets satisfied.Manipulation.

2.We go to shop and the shopkeeper charges more. We shout and accuse him.he agrees for bargain. Our ego gets satisfied.Manipulation.

3.A boss, always is a boss and even if he is at the wrong end he will make sure that people are wrong and he is right.Again his big ego gets satisfied .Manipulation.

Day in and out Minute by minute second by second we see this kind of manipulation happening in social life.Anything which gets repeated becomes a habit and then one day becomes our character.

Same people come to market and gets hammered out as their manipulation cannot work in market. Leave alone respect for their ego.

I personally know delivery heads, SSE's who make 1.5 Lakhs in one hour and give back all of that and more next day.The main reason being they feel whatever direction they take, Market will just follow!!.No room for suggestion.
They become part of 90% and they keep the supply intact.

I read in one book that the most unsuccessful traders in the market are either doctors or Engineers or lawyers or Chartered Accountants.The reason:They are successfull in their own profession and it builds either overconfidence or ego. The same brought to market gets burned in to ashes.At the same time the most successful traders are either retired Military personnel or just pass outs.The former is highly disciplined and listens to market and follows rules and policies whereas the latter is humble to learn to make his living.

Regards
Raghav

A must book before we jump in to market are.

1.Trading in the zone
2.The disciplined trader.

 

[columbus]

Satyen

This year we have had 64 trading days excluding today. In the 64 days, we have had 39 days of positive close and 25 days of negative close. It is roughly the same ratio for a complete year also. As I mentioned earlier amidst the vast randomness, we have trading days which is what gives the market direction and an opportunity for us to trade.

In the following list the number stands for consecutive closes. P stands for positve close and N for negative closes. You can observe how the Ps and the Ns bunch together giving us the short trends.

3P, 2N, 1P, 1N, 2P, 1N, 1P, 6N, 3P, 1N, 1P, 2N, 3P, 1N, 1P, 1N, 2P, 2N, 2P, 2N, 6P, 1N, 2P, 2N, 4P, 1N, 4P, 2N, 4P

I have highlighted 3 or more days of the trend. As you can see there are 8 short term trends there which are tradeable. Yes we can give a higher probability that tomorrow will be a red day since today was a red day. In larger samples of a year or more this bunching together is more striking.

Hi trader.trends,

Good info.In all we have either 11 Positive or Negative SINGLE days in total sample.
So the chances of RED is likely tomorrow.

 

[trader.trends]

Hi trader.trends,

Good info.In all we have either 11 Positive or Negative days in total sample.
So the chances of RED is likely tomorrow.

Columbus

Some misunderstanding in interpreting the data at your end. We have 39 positive days and 25 Negative days in the sample of 64 trading days not 11 of each day as you mentioned. At the beginning of the list 3P, 2N means January 4,5,6 the three days were positive close (3P) January 7,8 the two days were negative close (2N) and so on. The probability of a green day following a green day or a red day following a red day is greater but not certain.

This data is to highlight how or why trends are certainly going to exist. That is the nature of the markets.

 

[columbus]

Columbus

Some misunderstanding in interpreting the data at your end. We have 39 positive days and 25 Negative days in the sample of 64 trading days not 11 of each day as you mentioned. At the beginning of the list 3P, 2N means January 4,5,6 the three days were positive close (3P) January 7,8 the two days were negative close (2N) and so on. The probability of a green day following a green day or a red day following a red day is greater but not certain.

This data is to highlight how or why trends are certainly going to exist. That is the nature of the markets.

Hi trader.trends,

Yes ,the wordings in my post were wrong but not my interpretation.
I have edited the post accordingly,Just one word changed the meaning.
According to your data we have 17% single day rise/fall against 83%
continuation.So we can see a fall tomorrow also.

 

[AW10]

AW sir,

This is the one afl i have and i call it pivots based trading system....i am learning its working yet, as there was no material available for it...So understanding it my way (although i know some tweaks from it)....in the mean time...the person frm whm i took it called it once the turtle trading system. and i found it solid too,thats the reason this line caught my eye. Can you enlighten more about it. Or if you have some particular material about it. Please check the image.


I have the afl and its working, but if some little documentation is available it will be more easy to understand it. It is a trendfollowing system.

Rajputz, Turtle system is very simple 20day breakout system with trailing stoploss at 10day Low. I.e
Entry - go long if price breaks above highest high of last 20 days
Exit (inital stoploss or trailing stop) - set at the lowest low of last 10 days

This system never talks about target cause they believed in getting max from the trend. So exit is only at 10days low else keep trailing/chasing.
The strength of system comes from money mgmt rules..
Just google on it.. and you will be able to find nice pdf on the net with all rules clearly written on it.

Regarding so called turtle AFL - even turtle trader will get shocked by looking at so many lines. Someone has overloaded it with lot of non-turtle system info and forgot that there is someting called KISS (keep it simple stupid).

Have enjoyable trading

 

[AW10]

Satyen

This year we have had 64 trading days excluding today. In the 64 days, we have had 39 days of positive close and 25 days of negative close. It is roughly the same ratio for a complete year also. As I mentioned earlier amidst the vast randomness, we have trending days which is what gives the market direction and an opportunity for us to trade.

In the following list the number stands for consecutive closes. P stands for positve close and N for negative closes. You can observe how the Ps and the Ns bunch together giving us the short trends.

3P, 2N, 1P, 1N, 2P, 1N, 1P, 6N, 3P, 1N, 1P, 2N, 3P, 1N, 1P, 1N, 2P, 2N, 2P, 2N, 6P, 1N, 2P, 2N, 4P, 1N, 4P, 2N, 4P

I have highlighted 3 or more days of the trend. As you can see there are 8 short term trends there which are tradeable. Yes we can give a higher probability that tomorrow will be a red day since today was a red day. In larger samples of a year or more this bunching together is more striking.

Nice observation TT and thanks for sharing it.
Am I correct in interpreting it that has has been 28 instance (all , in yr series) when bar of day differ from prev day. (i.e. 28/64 = 43% time)
And remaining 64-28 = 36 days next bar had same colour like prev.. (i.e. 57% times)

If I am correct, then probably I will discard this hypothesis cause it is just slightly better then 50/50 coin flip system in predicting the colour of next bar. (until I am missing something). Generally I look for atleast 65%+ predictablity of any hypothesis before spending further effort on it.

But what exites me is this obsevation (probably I am not going to get sleep tonight).
Your observation gives me another clue, only 5 times, in this series the trend has gone beyond count of 3.. (i.e. 4x,5x,6xs).. That is out of 28 instances of trend changes, only 5 times trend goes above 3 days. i.e. 5/28 = 18% time. That means, there is 82% chance are in my favour that after 3day trend, I am going to see opposite colour bar tomorrow. Great contrarian entry system with 82% odds stacked in my favour.

What it needs it now to define few rules around it and backtest it..