Beware of Trading Gurus


Active Member
This are interesting extracts from Financial Trading by Alexander Elder who is a psychiatrist cum trader:-

"Whenever a guru introduces a theory-cycles,volume,Elliot wave, whatever-is usually developed several years prior to reaching stardom. At first, the market refuses to follow an aspiring gurus pet theory. Then the market changes, and for several years comes in gear with it. That is when the star of the market guru rises and high and bright and above the marketplace. "

"A gurus fame tends to last from two to three years. The reigning period of each guru coincides with a major bull market in the US."

"A guru continues to use the old methods that worked spectacularly well in the past, and rapidly loses his or her following. When the gurus forecast stops working, public admiration turns to hatred. It is impossible for a discredited market cycle guru to return to stardom."
Examples of Such Gurus:-
Edson Gould
Joseph Granville
Robert Prechter
Jake Bernstein
Peter Steidmayer

W.D.Gann, reputed to be the giant of trading could never support his family by trading alone. His estate when he died was valued at only $1,00,000 instead of the reputed $50 million.

The lesson from all this basically seems to be that the market is the ultimate guru and one should always remain skeptical of market gurus who in turn should not try to perpetuate their reputation artificially. Now I am beginning to understand why some people say that if you want to make money do the opposite of what CNBC says.
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