1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I think it is genuine correction because of the bouncer at 6000CE - (But 100+ points is due to the RBI bouncer). From my calculation of the Premium using the Options data (not the difference between Spot and Futures) it is around -65. So it is a Heavily SOLD market.... So we might see some bounce back in the afternoon or tomorrow. The CHG in PE would be the indicator. Now it is at -20L. If it goes to positive then we might surely see a bounce. So have to watch on the PE CHG in OI...

I hv noticed that after giving a pullback, like it did today, price often touches the High of the series once before changing trend. High of the series is 6038 Spot. So, I won't be surprised if that is on NF's agenda this week.

Marker makers use all possible tricks to get weak hands into the game.

 

[manishbaba]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

If you get the pair 5800-6000 Pair at around 95 - go for it

OR - Since the there are heavy positions at 5800-6000 Pair and assuming the market would spend some time between 5800-6000. One can sell the Pair 5800PE and 6000PE available now at 99.7. One of them will loose. If market crosses 6000 this pair would be even more profitable.

if not of this month, what about the idea of selling it of next month option. because as expiry approaches, volatility in current month increases too.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

PE - CHG in OI has come down to -11.48L from -23L. CE still remains at 23.5L. Those who want to Short can Sell around 5972. Try for some Last minute profit of some 20 points

12 points for Those who shorted at 5972 Level.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

if not of this month, what about the idea of selling it of next month option. because as expiry approaches, volatility in current month increases too.

I will normally look at Next month only by end of third week. If you want to Trade next month pair. 5600-6200 Pair is perfect choice available now at 97.2

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Go for 5800PE and 6000PE pair - It is defintely not a Neutral Strategy. It is with MAX OI. Available at 100 Now

Max oi was at 5800-5900pe not 6000, not sure how you reasoned this? And moreover it's a completely bullish strategy

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I will normally look at Next month only by end of third week. If you want to Trade next month pair. 5600-6200 Pair is perfect choice available now at 97.2

I have Sold the August Series 5600PE-6200CE Pair for 97. May be the Right time to Sell because NIFTY right in the middle of the pair. But this is the first time I am selling a pair in the next month. The main strategy behind Selling is gaining the premium using the Time decay. Let us see if it works.

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I have Sold the August Series 5600PE-6200CE Pair for 97. May be the Right time to Sell because NIFTY right in the middle of the pair. But this is the first time I am selling a pair in the next month. The main strategy behind Selling is gaining the premium using the Time decay. Let us see if it works.

What is your exit plan?

I understand that, as long as NF remains betw 56-62 you will not make any changed. But, what if NF reaches 6300? Or, one leg becomes ATM and its premium > 97 ? How much loss will you bear?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Max oi was at 5800-5900pe not 6000, not sure how you reasoned this? And moreover it's a completely bullish strategy

When the we MAX OI, I look at it for CE and PE separately.

For CE, the MAX OI at 6000 - 69L
For PE, the MAX OI at 5800 - 91L

So it is like Bulls are saying the market will not cross below 5800 and the Bears saying the market will not cross 6000 - Meaning they might settle down in between say 5900.

May you are talking about the MAX(Sum of the OI).

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

When the we MAX OI, I look at it for CE and PE separately.

For CE, the MAX OI at 6000 - 69L
For PE, the MAX OI at 5800 - 91L

So it is like Bulls are saying the market will not cross below 5800 and the Bears saying the market will not cross 6000 - Meaning they might settle down in between say 5900.

May you are talking about the MAX(Sum of the OI).

You mentioned 5800pe -6000pe pair in your earlier post which confused me. The 5800-6000 pe ce pair is at 67 way below 100 that you are mentioning

Go for 5800PE and 6000PE pair - It is defintely not a Neutral Strategy. It is with MAX OI. Available at 100 Now

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

What is your exit plan?

I understand that, as long as NF remains betw 56-62 you will not make any changed. But, what if NF reaches 6300? Or, one leg becomes ATM and its premium > 97 ? How much loss will you bear?

Amit,

First of all I don't look at too many things. I see the MAX OI and then Sell the pair. Normally the NIFTY OI takes a lot of time to build up. And it won't happen suddenly. And when the Range is crossed then I close the position. So the Stoploss is breaking the Range by 30 points. On upper side the 6230 and on the downside it would be 5570.

It is also a Pair which is very much away from each other and so there won't much movement in the pair.

Looking at the August Series, it looks Bullish - This is my first assumption. So even for a Neutral trade we have to take some direction.

One more thing is the Volatility -

CE Volatility @ 14.5%
PE Volatility @ 22.5%

So even if the market moves UP, the change in CE price would not be that fast.
Since the PE volatility is more, the price it looses will be more.

So net net CE will move UP slowly and PE move down faster and my target is not more than 20-25 points.

I am actually learning. So let me know if there is anything wrong with my approach.