1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[prabhsingh]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

The big differnence between Nishant Vs Raj is that Raj's excel tool are all opensource and he has always given the password of his excel files to everybody even on open forum so that if anybody wants to tune the application at his/her need with It knowledge can easily do whereas i am not sure whether Nishant's tool are open source or not.

 

[Vikas Korde]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

http://www.4shared.com/office/hjbDm56B/nishant_trading_system_for_nse.html

Here the Excel, it may help this thread. so i think Raj ji will not mind if i share..

I have get the both v27.1 and v 31 uplod on screen but they give diffrent signal 27.1 give buy signal for nifty and v 31 is showing sell signal how can is show diffrence. and also v31 gives only future call not given option call .

 

[Vikas Korde]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I have get both the files v27.1 and v31 of the nishant trading system but they gives both different signals. are shown in pictures . this are at the same time means which is correct call for us .check bank nifty price it shows different value .

 

[maneverfix]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Just downloaded your Excel Sheet, yet to use it, one thing is sure your programming skills in Excel are awesome.

 

[rajak1981]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Testing period 18-July-2002->20-July-2012
I tested a file which I downloaded from this forum
http://search.4shared.com/postDownload/4ujFBdWE/positional_trading_-_nifty_-_b.html

With nifty spot total cumulative profit for 10 years was 490 crores

I tested the data with nifty futures
the total cumulative profit dropped from 490 crores to 190 crores

I added round trip commissions (including STT and all of 0.045%)
and the profit dropped from 190 crores to
Rs. 1.28 crores

I then added round trip impact cost of 0.015%
and the total profit dropped to Rs. 1.3 lakhs in 10 years
http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/cnx_nifty.htm

Just to get a quick double check
Can someone else confirm or refute my findings?

The conclusions I can come to are as follows
1) the house always wins... that 490 crores of frequent trading profits goes down to 1.2 crores just by adding 0.045% round trip commissions (house=broker+nse+govt (stt))

Also I used to be an active trader 2005-2008
I am pretty sure that nifty ohlc on eod basis never showed gaps properly.
the gaps started showing up properly much later

I have nifty intraday data which shows lots of huge 1 min bars for the very first bar of the day. The opening price is artificial because it used to be derived from the previous day's closing price and you would almost never see more than 0.05% volatility on the first reported nifty open price.
However if we trade after 1-2 minutes
a) the reported opening price might not be tradeable
especially in periods of strong trends which the trading system in this post is trying to catch

Nifty futures opening has been cleaner because the nifty futures opening tick is based on actual trades.
However even there I suspect trying to trade this system could result in lots of slippage during fast moves.
The only way to test what price can be achieved is to test using intraday data.
We can assume lets say either the end of 1 min or 5 mins into the opening as the tradeable price.

If anyone wants to test using intraday data and post the results here I think that would be a great help for everyone.

I'll post a picture to show what I am talking about regarding extreme volatility in the opening 1 minute on strong trend days in nifty spot.

 

[rajak1981]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

If someone can summarize all the buy/sell rules out here in one place
then I can run a test in amibroker with the intraday data that I have
for example
BUY=condition A and condition B and condition C

Short=condition A and condition B and condition C

Also this excel file seems like a ridiculous amount of work....
Why not use amibroker or metastock or any other charting package?

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Testing period 18-July-2002->20-July-2012
I tested a file which I downloaded from this forum
http://search.4shared.com/postDownload/4ujFBdWE/positional_trading_-_nifty_-_b.html

With nifty spot total cumulative profit for 10 years was 490 crores

I tested the data with nifty futures
the total cumulative profit dropped from 490 crores to 190 crores

I added round trip commissions (including STT and all of 0.045%)
and the profit dropped from 190 crores to
Rs. 1.28 crores

I then added round trip impact cost of 0.015%
and the total profit dropped to Rs. 1.3 lakhs in 10 years
http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/cnx_nifty.htm

Just to get a quick double check
Can someone else confirm or refute my findings?

The conclusions I can come to are as follows


I'll post a picture to show what I am talking about regarding extreme volatility in the opening 1 minute on strong trend days in nifty spot.

You have a lot of catching up to do. The Otp trading was debunked a while ago when I did back testing on Nifty futures a while back. You have come to the same conclusion as I had long time back. The forum has moved on to incorporate flow methods, not sure of it's efficiency,to the recent analysis on options. Option rules have been laid out from posts 175 onwards, have a look.

 

[amitava roy]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

SIR I M NOT ABLE TO DOWNLOAD.MAY U KINDLY SEND ME UR READYMADE CHARTS WITH BUY\SELL SIGNAL.I M LOSING ONLY WITHOUT PROPER GUIDANCE.MAY U KINDLY GUIDE ME.MY EMAIL ID [email protected] 4 ur kind response.

 

[rajak1981]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

You have a lot of catching up to do. The Otp trading was debunked a while ago when I did back testing on Nifty futures a while back. You have come to the same conclusion as I had long time back. The forum has moved on to incorporate flow methods, not sure of it's efficiency,to the recent analysis on options. Option rules have been laid out from posts 175 onwards, have a look.

Ya I was actually wondering whether the whole thread had been wrapped up.
I just didn't have the patience to go through 652 pages of posts!!!

Not sure on which post the whole theory got debunked. I think it might help casual browsers of the forum if the topic/first post of ridiculously long threads could be updated to include the key points of discussion. Just a thought.

 

[rajak1981]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

So what are the other threads I should visit which are related to this thread?