1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Logic and Trade.

Both sides appear to have shown their limits. 6000 - 5600 is expected to be the range for the month.

Currently, smaller TF Trend seems to be up. So if price reaches near 6000, then I shall purchase OTM PEs not further than 5700. This will give me an RR of 1:3 hence making the trade comfortable.

Jamit, it's better not to be biased. If Nifty breaks 5920 and 5970 the trades on longer side will be profitable. 5700 for all you know might become the base and ideal for option writers. The pair I wrote 5700-6000 is already in 11 points profit.
Better trade for buying based on levels would be 5800pe when Nifty touches 5900 for a stop loss of 5920, provided 5800pe does not form base

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

09-Jul-13 Option Analysis.

Was out of station Yesterday. Came back just now.

Was thinking this over the week end. One important thing one has to observe is at what strike the MAX CHG in OI is?

For example today NIFTY Trading aorund 5850 But the MAX CHG in OI right now at 5700 PE and 6000 CE, which does not indicate any Strong Bull or Strong Bear. If the Bulls and Bears have to fight, the MAX CHG in OI, needs to be at 5800PE and 5900CE.

So clearly it is a Rangebound market.

The broader the Range where the MAX CHG in OI - The more it would be RangeBound. On Friday CHG in OI was going all over the places and for most of the time it was in 5600PE-6000CE. So after a 100-150 point run in one direction, if the positions are taken at the 5600Pe-6000CE pair for example, it should be taken as a Reversal.

For the morning Session it seems to be BULL and for the afternoon session would be decided based on positions on 5800 PE and 5900 CE.

So during this Rangebound days it is better to be safe and do the Pair Trading.

The 5700PE-6000CE Pair SOLD at around 88 trading now at 79
The risky pair 5800PE-6100CE pair SOLD at around 98 now trading at 86

Just an observation on the 5600PE-6000CE Pair : We sold this pair around 95 and close the positions around 65. Now the pair is trading around 61. Hope the next target for this pair would be 35.

Probably if market goes to around 5880-5930 levels - Should try and close the Pair with 20-25 points profit.

The Key observation : For you to be able to buy Naked Call or Put, the Fight (MAX CHG in OI) should be at the ATM Pair and not at the OTM pair.

Good analysis. Though I would urge to look at booking profits in pair. In 5700-6000 pair the profit points of 20 is still some way. If it takes more than a week we may not be able to take multiple trades lowering overall returns

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Jamit, it's better not to be biased. If Nifty breaks 5920 and 5970 the trades on longer side will be profitable. 5700 for all you know might become the base and ideal for option writers. The pair I wrote 5700-6000 is already in 11 points profit.
Better trade for buying based on levels would be 5800pe when Nifty touches 5900 for a stop loss of 5920, provided 5800pe does not form base

What is your SL for the sold pair. How do you plan to manage the trade when it goes into a loss?

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Jamit, it's better not to be biased. If Nifty breaks 5920 and 5970 the trades on longer side will be profitable. 5700 for all you know might become the base and ideal for option writers. The pair I wrote 5700-6000 is already in 11 points profit.
Better trade for buying based on levels would be 5800pe when Nifty touches 5900 for a stop loss of 5920, provided 5800pe does not form base

Well said. I shall take this trade based on a trading system then. With exit near 5600.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

What is your SL for the sold pair. How do you plan to manage the trade when it goes into a loss?

Stop loss would be when Nifty beaches either levels. The idea is to have multiple trades in a month. Exit for a 25 points 4times a month to give a return of 15% per month. This is just in theory phase, need to see operational can characteristics

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Is base forming at 5800pe? 840k is chgoi @5800.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Option update at 2:00 PM

MAX CHG in OI still at 5800Pe-6000CE Pair

5800PCE- 8.57L 6000PE-8.17L.

The trend is mildly Bullish with 5894 as the Resistance.

With NIFTY making low 5842, 60 points would be around 5902.
So at 5902, if there are not huge positions at 5900 PE, it would be a SELL.

This morning we also mentioned 5877 as the Pivot. so those who want to take fresh long should buy above 5877

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Is base forming at 5800pe? 840k is chgoi @5800.

As long as the positions at 5700 and 5900 are not confirmed, we cannot confirm the positions in 5800.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5800-6000 pair available @95

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5800-6000 pair available @95

It is little bit risky. But I hope it is worth taking because of the following PCR

5600 - 5.9
5700 - 3.4
5800 - 1.6
5900 - 0.5
6000 - 0.2

At EOD it was available @ 105.