$$my success story and my live tread[nifty&option]$$

Do you think my system is profitable ?


  • Total voters
    49

sumitdasjoshi

Well-Known Member
#81
MACD Crossover

Because there are two moving averages with different speeds, the faster one will obviously be quicker to react to price movement than the slower one. When a new trend occurs, the fast line will react first and eventually cross the slower line. When this crossover occurs, and the fast line starts to diverge or move away from the slower line, it often indicates that a new trend has formed.

From the chart above, you can see that the fast line crossed under the slow line and correctly identified a new downtrend. Notice that when the lines crossed, the histogram temporarily disappears. This is because the difference between the lines at the time of the cross is 0. As the downtrend begins and the fast line diverges away from the slow line, the histogram gets bigger, which is good indication of a strong trend.

There is one drawback to MACD. Naturally, moving averages tend to lag behind price. After all, it's just an average of historical prices. Since the MACD represents moving averages of other moving averages and is smoothed out by another moving average, you can imagine that there is quite a bit of lag. However, it is still one of the most favored tools by many traders.
 

desifxtrader

Well-Known Member
#82
MACD Crossover

Because there are two moving averages with different speeds, the faster one will obviously be quicker to react to price movement than the slower one. When a new trend occurs, the fast line will react first and eventually cross the slower line. When this crossover occurs, and the fast line starts to diverge or move away from the slower line, it often indicates that a new trend has formed.

From the chart above, you can see that the fast line crossed under the slow line and correctly identified a new downtrend. Notice that when the lines crossed, the histogram temporarily disappears. This is because the difference between the lines at the time of the cross is 0. As the downtrend begins and the fast line diverges away from the slow line, the histogram gets bigger, which is good indication of a strong trend.

There is one drawback to MACD. Naturally, moving averages tend to lag behind price. After all, it's just an average of historical prices. Since the MACD represents moving averages of other moving averages and is smoothed out by another moving average, you can imagine that there is quite a bit of lag. However, it is still one of the most favored tools by many traders.
Hi Sumit,

This is a very good job you're doing. Hope readers would benefit immensely.

However, please keep in mind: Try to analyze your charts with the least number of indicators. Using 100s of indicators doesn't necessarily give good signals. Watch & be focused on the actual price action!!

You might get a clue of what I'm talking about by going thru this:


http://www.traderji.com/forex/39166-vdo-no-need-using-technical-indicators.html

Trading is buyers (DEMAND) versus sellers (SUPPLY). When there is 10 buyers and 5 sellers what happens after the 5 sell orders are filled and there is still 5 buyers left?? Price must move higher and it naturally does. Demand exceeds Supply. Indicators and everything else clouds amateur trader's minds from this simple truth. It doesn't matter if something is overbought or oversold, if Demand & Supply are imbalanced, price reacts accordingly. Also, do remember that indicators lag!! If two moving averages cross each other, it doesn't mean the price would react to that. The Truth is actually the inverse. The key is to use 1 or 2 indicators (that you understand well) for secondary or tertiary analysis only after you've already analyzed the actual price action.


Sumit, sorry for the interruption. Anyways guys,

happy trading
 
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vssoma

Well-Known Member
#83
dear sumit,
is it really useful to use MACD in real time trading with NF. if so, pls. give me example of your real trading tomorrow(27th of April) if you use this. because, i am following your thread since long time. you are consonstantly winninig NF points. really iam very curious to know your system.
may be iam asking more. but pls......as a newbee....try to understand and help me to find one good system and to develop a system which suits me.
thank you,
 

sumitdasjoshi

Well-Known Member
#86
well vssom first thing i want to clear is that if you are looking for day trading then this indis will not work but you are a swing trader than macd will realy help you to take a winig trade.so as you notice i use difrent pair of indicater they are custom made. for very uniqe perpose.but if you change you style and trade with eod data than all of this indis will help you.i will sugest you to stop day trading and go for a swing trade.and in between learn i persanly do this and in just this month i start day trading. best of luck.
well i think so i dont have to post chart because i dont do swing trade, and in day trading i dont use macd.
 

sumitdasjoshi

Well-Known Member
#87

meet ram
ram is a professional trader.

He makes all his money trading the Forex market. He has been trading for five years.

He is patient, disciplined and, in his trading, he is fearless.

Meet shyam


shyam is a newbie.

He barely manages to break-even with his trading. He has been trading for six month shyam takes unnecessary risks as he is undisciplined, and he panics when he takes a trade.

Let's imagine we have a super profitable system. On paper, traded mechanically, this system has an average of seven wins from ten trades. Now, let's imagine we give both ram and shyam this method and they trade it.

What do you think will happen?

ram will take the system, take the trades, and make a lot of pips. In fact, ram will probably improve the efficiency of the system and bump it up to eight winners out of ten.

shyam will take the system, take the trades, and pretty much screw it all up. As I said, trading it mechanically will give shyam an average of seven out of ten winners. However, shyam will be lucky to get five out of ten winners.

Why does it work this way?

It all comes down to two things; psychology and experience.

There isn't much you can do about experience. So let's take a look at some of the dangerous psychological pitfalls. Hopefully, after reading this, you will be able to see them coming and stop them, before they destroy your account.
4 Psychological Pitfalls
1. The Desire to be Rich
The desire to be rich manifests itself in many ways. The main ways are fear and greed and they inevitably lead to other problems. If you think about it the majority of the issues newbie's have stem from the desire to be rich. Things such as:

1. Over trading
2. Poor money management by risking too much

trading will not make you rich in the short term. It will likely take years before you're trading well enough to leave your day job. trading is a career and in the long run, if you're successful, it can give you a very relaxed life. However, if you started trading last week and you plan to quit your job in six months, because you anticipate being rich enough to buy a Ferrari, you are delusional.

This is a career, not a get rich quick scheme. If you want to be rich quick hit the casinos. You have a better chance of winning there.
2. Fear of Losing

From a young age, we are taught that money is important. That without money you have no real value. We are conditioned into believing, that to be successful when we grow up, we must have lots of money. This in turn causes people to be afraid of losing money. This is because the reverse is also true. If you lost money then you are a failure as it is the opposite of making money. This in turn leads to some newbie traders being afraid to pull the trigger and actually taking a trade.

Some newbie's trade demo accounts for two years, never summoning the courage to open a live account. Some newbie traders with live accounts panic whenever they enter a trade and, in turn, make rash decisions.

Take a look at people like Richard Branson, Donald Trump, Alan Sugar and Warren Buffet. These guys are all billionaires (or close enough to it) and each of them has failed many times. Richard Branson has spearheaded many failed ventures. Did those failures set him back though? Hell no! The man is going to start flying people to space at $200k per head, next year, with Virgin Galactic.

I think losing some money to the markets is actually beneficial. It teaches you some very important lessons. What is damaging is the fear of losing money. The fact that you think about it puts you at much greater risk of it actually happening. You have to trade with a positive attitude. So get rid of those fears and worries, they will not do you any good.

The truth is you are going to lose money to the markets, it's unavoidable. Every professional trader has lost money. Not every trade will be profitable. The market simply doesn't always work in your favour, and there are times, especially as a newbie, that you will be stung. If you end up blowing your first live account... so be it. As long as you pick yourself up and try again, you will be a better trader for it. I blew two accounts before I started trading profitably.
3. The Need to be Right
This is a good one. shyam opens his platform and enters a dumb, baseless, long trade. He targets 100 points and has a 50 points stop loss. The trade goes against him immediately.

It goes down, first ten points, then twenty points, and then thirty points. When it reaches forty points, Tom decides he doesn't want to lose another trade and moves his stop loss down.

The price keeps falling and Tom continues to move his stop.

100
120
150......

Eventually shyam closes out his trade and he has lost a huge portion of his account.

shyam was not able to accept that he has taken a losing trade. He kept pushing the stop down in the hope that it would eventually turn around. The need to be right is an account killer.
4. Being Undisciplined

I saved this one for last because, even though it is one of the most common and dangerous pitfalls, it is rarely discussed. A trader who lacks discipline can never make it in this business. Many traders are guilty of lacking discipline for many different reasons.

The main culprits are what I like to call 'System Jumpers'. These are traders that are constantly tweaking and changing their trading methods. These traders do not realize that learning to trade a system efficiently takes time.

System Jumpers are traders who lack the discipline to stick to, and learn how to trade, a system. They try it for a week and when it doesn't work they jump to the next system or method.

Another common action of an undisciplined trader is abandoning a perfectly good trading method. Every trading method has periods in which it performs below average. No matter how versatile a method is it cannot perform, at peak efficiency in all market conditions. A true trader has the discipline to stick it out through the hard times.​
 

sumitdasjoshi

Well-Known Member
#88
hello freinds my position so far as i dont wana loose money i have two position in option which i think give me some money i have
sold 5100 put
sold 5500 call
prize around 2500 i will take this position till expery so i can gain hole premium.
as you can see it will not give me big money but the probeblity is high that nifty will stay in this range so no need to worry for me so far.
well friend as if you know that i have two position in nifty 5100pe sold
and 5500 ce sold the premium i get it 2500 now the value of the premium is 127.50 rs .
 

sumitdasjoshi

Well-Known Member
#89
well i am looking for option stratgy for 4 to 5 days i will post the result every evenig
well streatgy is
5200ce short=180
5200pe short=70
5100pe long=46
5300ce long =114
max profit is =85
max loss=14
well this will give as good risk reward ratio 1:6
well we see how this trade progres.
premium recieved =250
premium paid=160
cast of the trade =90
 
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