Technical Analysis on Nifty

[rajpersonal]

As on 20th Nov 08
Open High Low Close P/E P/BV Div%
8,400.88 8,540.46 8,316.39 8,451.01 10.72 2.24 2.12

Pls refer to the graph of sensex and PE attach herewith, I don't see any reason for the sensex to go below 7500 levels, bcoz at the end of Q3 v hav the earnings of SENSEX around 788 rupees, moving ahead for Q4 with worst case the earnings dropping by 10% to 15% brings it to 700 to 690 level and keeping the pe multiple of 10 may take the sensex levels of 7000 to 6900 and in extreme case 6500.

I personally feel that SENSEX is a leading indicator and it must hav already discounted for all this, probably by Q4 some good news may start pouring in.
RBI may go further to cut rates, inflation already at 8.90%, may head lower, Indian govt not yet reduce the oil price, seeing the voting season coming reduces the prices of diesel wch would further push inflation dwn, so all these r my assumptions for the coming season.

Also now major TV channels has started talking about Bear phase and most of us has already identified that v r in BEAR phase of the market for almost couple of month now, Selling at TOP is now common while covering at Bottom. Remember my first POST and thats what makes me feel that v might be reaching towards the final lap of our BEAR phase.

 

[rajpersonal]

Yeah renu its seems frm 10 min chart very clearly the bullishness with wch NIFTY was heading upwards to fill the gap with higher high and lower high formations on OHLC.
Lets see what happens on 21st Nov.

 

[pokrate]

As on 20th Nov 08
Open High Low Close P/E P/BV Div%
8,400.88 8,540.46 8,316.39 8,451.01 10.72 2.24 2.12

Pls refer to the graph of sensex and PE attach herewith, I don't see any reason for the sensex to go below 7500 levels, bcoz at the end of Q3 v hav the earnings of SENSEX around 788 rupees, moving ahead for Q4 with worst case the earnings dropping by 10% to 15% brings it to 700 to 690 level and keeping the pe multiple of 10 may take the sensex levels of 7000 to 6900 and in extreme case 6500. ............

Sensex already made history by breaking 12,500 which was crucial support according to P/E ratio logic, i forgot the exact number. History tells us that such break has never happened. Anything can happen my dear friend. October has given us many surprises. November too wont be diff. World has changed a lot, because of too many market participants. World stock markets created history during oct2007-dec2007 in the blind bull run. Stocks more than doubled in that time frame, which never happened earlier. This is worst crisis in US the mankind has ever seen !
Watch for 1612 in nifty !!!

 

[renu daga]

raj,,, and pok rate

what mkt is,, today hence all arguements have showed what actuakly it shaped too

three cheers!!!

renu
not at all trading but keeping surely some track, just to check though how i am improving with the indicators

 

[kkseal]

As on 20th Nov 08
Open High Low Close P/E P/BV Div%
8,400.88 8,540.46 8,316.39 8,451.01 10.72 2.24 2.12

Pls refer to the graph of sensex and PE attach herewith, I don't see any reason for the sensex to go below 7500 levels, bcoz at the end of Q3 v hav the earnings of SENSEX around 788 rupees, moving ahead for Q4 with worst case the earnings dropping by 10% to 15% brings it to 700 to 690 level and keeping the pe multiple of 10 may take the sensex levels of 7000 to 6900 and in extreme case 6500.
...

Excellent Raj Where did u get the chart from?

Btw, my worst case for FE is 665. I was wondering how low the PE discounting can go Your chart provides some answers.

Regards

 

[kkseal]

raj,,, and pok rate

what mkt is,, today hence all arguements have showed what actuakly it shaped too

three cheers!!!

renu
not at all trading but keeping surely some track, just to check though how i am improving with the indicators

No goddamn gall bladder can keep Renu down.

Cheers

 

[rajpersonal]

Hi, to everyone today definitely today mrkt probably cheered everyone, it seems, but one thing I wud like to emphasize on Charts do not predict,they only reveal and its upto us to draw inferences, sometime we may draw correct inference and some time we may fail, its based on statistical science, I don't claim to be right all the time but I try to give u all the broader picture with an unbiased picture and upto my limitations and capabilities.

The only difference where I found myself with most of u all boarders is that by profession I'm not a stock trader or analyst, I'm simply a Physics teacher, who spend 12 hrs with students teaching physics interpreting charts drawing conclusions etc. so probably this gives me an edge when on interpreting the charts. I feel i hav still more to learn and miles to go before I sleep....

But I hav one dream for all my fellow Indians traders and small investors that they shud not waste their hard earned money in getting tips frm big brokerage houses and analysts, bcoz some how I feel that their analysis somehow is biased, and this hav been proven right in this carnage, refer to my first post in Sept, wch I wrote. I hope this thread will atleast be able to help some of my fellow traders, though it is very limited, but atleast a beginning has been made.

In the last I wud like to share one saying (frm Vivekananda) with u all wch I keep reminding to myself...
"If I love myself despite my infinite faults,
How can I hate anyone at the glimpse of few faults?"

Thanx to all the boarders to keep this thread running and don't forget to take part in the polls and do also rate the thread...

 

[pokrate]

CNX Nifty is more or less tracing the earlier moves, but this time it's sideways move didnt last longer, and nifty bounced off a DOUBLE BOTTOM STOCK CHART PATTERN.

It tested the last lowest close 2524 and bounced back sharply. The base which it formed yesterday was probably because of that double bottom testing. Other indicators are not at all in sync clearly showing its a trap again. Market breadth remain subdued to the order of 1:1, nifty november futures closed with a premium of 11, and sensex november futures closed with a discount of 5. But though volatility decreased, but it decreased by only 1%. Chances are monday could see a gapup opening with nifty touching 2776 which is the 38% retracement level which should act as strong resistance, as 2700 - 2750 is a very strong confluence zone too.

 

[pkamalesh]

CNX Nifty is more or less tracing the earlier moves, but this time it's sideways move didnt last longer, and nifty bounced off a DOUBLE BOTTOM STOCK CHART PATTERN.

It tested the last lowest close 2524 and bounced back sharply. The base which it formed yesterday was probably because of that double bottom testing. Other indicators are not at all in sync clearly showing its a trap again. Market breadth remain subdued to the order of 1:1, nifty november futures closed with a premium of 11, and sensex november futures closed with a discount of 5. But though volatility decreased, but it decreased by only 1%. Chances are monday could see a gapup opening with nifty touching 2776 which is the 38% retracement level which should act as strong resistance, as 2700 - 2750 is a very strong confluence zone too.

Thanks pokrate...would be great if u can define the range or post some charts for this months expiry

 

[pokrate]

I cant get Nifty futures charts. If you know where to get, I will be obliged.

Todays markets couldnt really hold the levels forecasted (2770) in my previous post. Markets rose like the deadly tide rose in mahabharatha episode to touch lord krishna's devine legs, and then subsided.
Volatility has decreased today, despite nifty long jumps whole day which saw its moves as down 2%, then up 1% and closing somewhere in between. Still its bearish and nothing special has happened, except that Weekly STOCH crossover has ocurred. Rupee too closed above 50.
Nifty Index range remains : 2750 , 2825 , 2858 on the upside and 2528 on the downside.