Technical Analysis on Nifty

What do you expect the Sensex level by the end of December 2008?


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  • Poll closed .

pokrate

Active Member
#31
NIFTY DAILY CHART NIFTY MONTHLY CHART CNX IT DAILY CHART
Nifty made a high of 3240.55 as against the prediction of 4000 made after touching the low of 2240. The pullback was in accordance with wolf wave pattern, but hasnt touched the projected target.
The worry sign now is Nifty has changed its short term course to down, as in weekly and monthly charts inverted hammers has formed from the important level of 3166 which is the important 38.2% retracement from the low of 2240. CNX 100 ended the week with a bearish engulfing candle clearly indicating testing of lows. Same is the case with CNX IT, which is forming a symmetric triangle stock chart pattern, the move of 10 November 2008 wasnt able to lift it above the resistance line as shown in the accompanying chart. STOCHASTIC momentum indicator is telling me a new sharp low for IT. Such STOCH patterns creates sharp lows. And the symmetric triangle stock chart pattern is known to give massive breakouts in the prior trend.
NIFTY monthly chart is showing a negative divergence and again a deadly STOCH crossover escape giving further worrying signs as shown in accompanying charts.
It looks certain to me that, at least now we are going to retest the lows, with a heavy possibility of further downfall.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE monthly charts have at least given a STOCH crossover but there too a negative divergence indicates further weakness. Only positive is seen in inflation which has fallen drastically by over 1.5%. So, all in all negatives outweigh positives for Indian stock markets.
Be ready for a test of 2000 in nifty
 
#32
Technical Comparisons and Possibilities:

The strategy we have been using is to react then to predict of late . As a matter of fact its simple either markets will go up or go down , but all the technical views in the market -men have been one day up and down the other day with quick conclusions.

The consensus at 10500-10700 was of 12500 and at 9000 it goes towards 7500. So our simpler/watchful strategy and analysis of waiting for confirmations has been more fruitfull, less risky and on the mark.

As we see in the chart above there is a possibility Sensex may form a flag pattern. This has been compared to a similar one before. The major trigger though remains a breakout from the flag and the sloping trendline. So we will continue to track this pattern over next 2 weeks as a back drop to any market move. A fall below 8500 on closing basis would negate this possibility.

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Boarder's pls also take active participation in the poll, so it will hav a general consensus to be formed.

Thanx for ur active support on this thread and if u had found it useful plz do rate the same, so that it can help others to take active participation on this thread...:)
 

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pokrate

Active Member
#33
#34
Sensex Technical View

Sensex Technical View
Couple of days back had put this chart of comparison to earlier pattern COMPARE FLAGS.
Again we will list down a few technical points.
1) GAPS Filled
Sensex has filled all the 3 gaps which we had been discussing since markets were nearing 10700 zones. The last gap at 8740-8900 is finally filled. Its a preferred thing that gaps dont remain unfilled. Also the 3 gap ups gave the ideal opportunity to book and generate cash in exhaustion.
2) Flag Pattern
Yet again we are seeing a flag formation similar to what was seen after March lows as shown in another chart. The characteristic of such a pattern is declining volumes in this period which we are seeing now. Followed by that we need to see a breakout with larger volumes to confirm. The levels on higher side for break out are roughly 9400-9700. So continue to wait for a breakout on upside to decide next move till then wait .
3) Retracements.
The 61 % fibo level is done at 8900 and markets are trading below it. The fibonacci levels are not strict technical support zones. Although in such corrections markets can correct to 75-85 % also in some cases. Generally markets are found to retrace uptill 61 % but that is not the only Consideration for trading decisions:
In simple words the strategy remains the same to wait and watch , look for stock specific trades. Since the decision to book out/generate cash at 10500-10700 the view has been to look for selective trades on either short or long side. Continue to keep the above chart as a reference to catch the next direction.

 
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pokrate

Active Member
#35
This pattern of today in intraday charts is just opposite to what we saw while market rallied earlier after making new lows.

This is the first time I am seeing this intraday buildup in a down move. If symmetry is to be believed, we should see sharp aggresive down moves from tomorrow onwards.
 
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#37
This pattern of today in intraday charts is just opposite to what we saw while market rallied earlier after making new lows.

This is the first time I am seeing this intraday buildup in a down move. If symmetry is to be believed, we should see sharp aggresive down moves from tomorrow onwards.
To the contrary to ur opinion I hav notice altogether different intraday graph and if u notice nifty has manage itself to close above 2518 & it has tested the lows of 2518. So I feel tommorow it shud be either more or less flat or shud end up with some green??? Lets see...:confused:

 

renu daga

Well-Known Member
#40
just watched the data ,,, after mkt hours,,

u are abs rt raj...
posting chart just based on 10 min,, whihc figures out buy toady abs,,,!!!

teh blue arrows,,,, and the first tgt the gap of today.
it was not at all in consolidain phase today rather some upward ,,, and corrective moves
 
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