Technical Analysis on Nifty

[rajpersonal]

Some of the lines which can be important for next few hours :

" Lay Investors dont sell in LOSS they sell only in PANICs"

" Venturing out in rough weather can be fruitfull in market"

Suddenly one can see a panic and pessimism equivalent to the euphoria which we were seeing in January 2008 . The capitulation and panic may have brought in such unimaginable and dirt prices in many stocks to the extent of 80-90 % of the peak price but such a fall may create a short term or even a very important long term bottom zone after which markets could consolidate. Like in Novemeber to January Sensex dint make very big highs or crossovers but continued to stay at higher levels we may see Sensex and indices continue to stay at lower levels and consolidate before deciding the next move.

All global markets have turned highly oversold in the current state and quite a lot of economic news might have been already discounted in the near term and a decent bounce should be in the offing. There is a lot of blood on the street but thats when the real opportunities come in and also the greed of lower level buying may dissuade investors the same way greed dissuaded investors from selling in January. So even if one is panicky and wants to get out he may get little better chances in coming days!.

 

[pokrate]

http://marketsunwinded.blogspot.com/2008/10/nifty-prediction-for-october-november.html

 

[pokrate]

http://marketsunwinded.blogspot.com/2008/10/cnx-nifty-intraday-head-and-shoulders.html

 

[rajpersonal]

Is this a reversal pattern of descending broadening formation taking shape???
A lil more pain and then can we see a consolidation pattern formation
Acc to Bullwoski such patterns are reversal pattern but it is too steep to convince me
lets see and all the experts r invited to post their valuable comments...

 

[renu daga]

very nice pok rate

renu

 

[rajpersonal]

Hi renu cud not get what is pok rate??

 

[vjmbcfa]

Hiii there are a lot of short poistions in the market which will be covered this week so there should be a relief rally coming soon it might not last long but should be big and would give traders a chance to short at a little higher levels.
all indicators both EOD and RT are showing that the market's are extremely oversold but then markets can be that way for some time
Tough time ahead for traders coz once the bear fase ends the consolidation fase would be difficult to trade or that's what I think.
Please comment...

 

[columbus]

Hiii there are a lot of short poistions in the market which will be covered this week so there should be a relief rally coming soon it might not last long but should be big and would give traders a chance to short at a little higher levels.
all indicators both EOD and RT are showing that the market's are extremely oversold but then markets can be that way for some time
Tough time ahead for traders coz once the bear fase ends the consolidation fase would be difficult to trade or that's what I think.
Please comment...

Despite having such a drastic fall in market ,lot of stocks
are getting accumulated at this lower level.
(http://www.traderji.com/equities/21175-weekly-roundup.html#post237751)
Now RSI is at 20,which clearly shows market has bottomed out.
Perhaps the consolidation phase has started.Better to
wait on sidelines ,to look for a rally.Now definitely odds are
in favour of BULLS .Let us see.

 

[rajpersonal]

Sensex Technical View:
Oversold Oversold but it can stay for quite long. None of the small bounces are holding up and the simplest thing to do is to wait and watch whether a bottom holds for more then 5 sessions before taking any call in the short term. Also we need to see a bounce cross recent small tops to confirm some strength like yesterday it could not break 11200. Although indicators look oversold we have still not seen a decent reversal sign, though in my previous post I hav seen that descending broadening wedge formation and further supports are at 8800/9700 so wait for the range to come or a reversal.
Sensex and Nifty Observation Charts :
The charts attached above are elaborate enough and some major points considered for Sensex and Nifty are :
1) 61 % correction ---------- 9700 and 2950-3000
2) Trendline Support --- 9600-9800 and 2800
3) Previous important lows and tops --- 8800 and 2600.
So ideally we could see some consolidation to come in this band which may be a little different on both the indices. As technicals is more an art then a strict science we cant expect it to be a hard and fast rule. Out here we cannot expect a strict following of levels but on a sustained closing basis we could see some respite and consolidation coming in the above zones which may not reach exact levels or even breach by a margin in extreme short term.
Below 8500-8800 and 2600 the next important support is way below and all the long term structure gets out of place technically. As the next major technical levels are at 6200 and 2000 although 7650 and 2300 could be intermediate ones but not major .
So technically below 12500 many supports may have been broken but none of the levels (11900/10900) gave decent enough bounces which implies this could be the last wave of correction which is painfull in price as well as time and then a sideways consolidation could take place. A fall below 8500-8800 on weekly /monthly closing would negate the last wave assumption. Also after a bottoming out formation and consolidation technically we need the index to get into a higher top-higher bottom pattern (discussed previously as big signal) . Till the higher top pattern is not in place we cannot assume a comfortable bull rally to emerge.
Ideal strategy technically would be to buy as closer to 8800 with a stop of 8400-8800 on closing basis it self. Also the out of index components are almost quoting at 2003 low levels in cases which does give lot of long term opportunities but would like fundamental analysis with a view of current scenario!! . As i have been saying before below 11k -12k levels i do become comfortable for going long term which i continued to refrain from after Jan. (have maintained not to commit more then 50 % at 11k though also reduction in case of bounces also, further would look at 9k or in reversal to commit more but purely long term and be ready to see erosion to extent of 15-40 % in short run from start and buying through it).

 

[renu daga]

i menat teh site ref by pokrate,,,, sorry!!