Nifty 2017

[Tuna]

Nifty Weekly View (From 30th Jan - Till Friday)​

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On the downside, I will be a little surprised if it retraces and sustain below 8550 , even if market paints a sad note on budget day - might offer an entry on the pullback to go long.

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I don't know about those who missed it, I already scored +90 (and still have some open position). My Feb target (200 pips) is already done on 1st of Feb.

I got out a when it was up 90+ pip with 1 lot to get this thread going.

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322.5 + 18 = 340.5, 60 more points to achieve Feb target.
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Current Score = 340.5 + 90 = 430.5 , so got 30.5 points surplus. This (and any additional earning) will be rolled over to March.



Scoreboard:

Very Boring , right ??!! Indeed. That is the whole point.

Trading like any business takes some time to flourish if you have a solid plan and walk the plan.

The fun will begin when the gear starts shifting to next gear as we unlock capability of adding a lot to the trading game as we complete the journey to next 1 lakh and so on.

So till then have fun and trade safe.

Anyone who is seeing the post and thinking what its all about --> here you go:

My Trading Concept # 6​

The Trading Edge​

(This is also to emphasize the need of offscreen analysis and preparation for the week ahead well in time- which I discussed on my recent post on the BTS thread)

 

[Tuna]

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But what is worrying now, already had a winning streak of 7 trades (Nifty), gonna mess something big if I go as per law of average. Lets hope on my upcoming losing trade, I manage to get out quickly.

By the way, Nifty Winning Streak = 8 now. Till date highest was 18 or 23 (don't remember) let see how far it goes.

 

[Tuna]

A standard rule of thumb (very high frequency of success on Nifty Positional),

I am saying this for a bullish position (reverse for bearish).

If Dow Jones and DAX showing bearishness for days (2-3 days) during its uptrend

And

If Nifty is also in uptrend but not showing the closing in bearish note and displaying FA everyday (some 2-3 days) and making spinning stars or hammer with trailing rejection wick

Feel absolutely free to go long. You SL will be somewhere below Day Fractal Band (on future chart, not on spot)

Once DJ resumes uptrends just have a look on SGX to get the indication of the Gap up next session. Does it always holds good? No. But most of the time yes.

The Nube theory behind this:

• Nifty was in uptrend and consolidating and finding resistance, but not giving up
  
• Many shorts (mostly morons) are trying to call the top and building Short OIs both on Future and PE Longs
  
• Nifty is a managed Index (ops driven) like all global indices and loves the harmony of movement (exception exists, but you don't need to focus on those)
  
• Now all it needs to Gap up the current resistance zone and to sustain for that day's closing session above that zone, and then triggering of SLs will do the rest for bulls.

I was looking at SGX a while back and was thinking, why people can not go with the trends. And then realised, well, I was among them for many years.

It is natural - why to buy something costly? So, Short whatever is up, buy what is cheap. A Very Costly decision indeed, in regards to your profitability.

This called G2 theory - Grind and Gap - That is : During the Bullish trend, if we hit resistance, grind around that place, don't give up and on the next impulse Gaps up (or down if Bearish trend). Day trader's might not get much chance of pullbacks in such case, positional mints a lot.

 

[Tuna]

Nifty Weekly View (6th Feb Onwards)​

All the charts and levels are based on Spot price.

So let's catch up from where we left our Off-the-screen work last week. I warned about the early birds on shorts, but they really did well (the times when market reverses and does not come back sharply to retest to give chance to the second mouse). So Contra would have netted a good 80+ odd points as per the hourly BB-CCI signal, but would have got their A$$es royally whipped if stayed longer or did not trail the SL.

As of now Hourly, I don't see a chance of a second mouse in near term. So we have to wait for another early bird to fail before we can short.

Hourly Chart

On Daily, well nothing much on my EMA-STI view, so skipping it. Price is far far away from all the dynamic supports and on real strong trend. However, daily fractal chaos bands gives an idea where we can get some support if pullbacks come:

I am also putting 2 weekly:

1. Showing the STI moving to bullish - real bad sign for bears, STI on weekly does not fake much, can check it for yourself.

2. The extension of the nearest (past) high fractal, shown by yellow dotted line on weekly Fractal Chaos Bands. Gapping up above this (I guess it is already up as per chart) and closing above, PEs will up for pain

To me, there will no brainer mono-directional trades from me, unless Trump Uncle does something funny to spooke global indices or our PM bans the 2000 notes.

Last thing, weekly Pivot:

That's all guys. Happy and Safe trading. Have a nice weekend.

 

[Tuna]

STI is above VWAP since Morning and 7.30 lakhs Sellers (Mostly Morons) are playing with their lady luck. By 3-00 pm we shall know how much they donated to the Nifty longs today.

"Arreee Bhaut upar aa gaya, becho Jaldi" - Keep doing these guys. As long as you are there in the market, Pro can make money. The day all of you realize the mistake, there will be no market.

And it (this realization) never happened in past decades and will not happen in next 100 years to come.

The reason is, market seduces you to believe it is the right time to call the top and at times even work in that way - make sure you believe that on Sabji Mandi whatever negotiation you have on Aloo & Tomato, same things work in Derivatives. But we know retailers are net losers. So watch it from sidelines if you feel too costly to re-enter, but shorts? Sure. Go ahead Losers. 1-2 time it will work the way you are speculating, on a scale of 10. What will happen today? God Only knows. But We know what is the side having the maximum probability and this is a game about being with the higher probable side.

 

[Tuna]

Did you follow what I said just now? Never Mind.

Follow the Price...should be enough.

 

[Tuna]

TSL Hit at 8790, was long since Friday @ 8743 (approx) = neted +47 points. Hmm, DAX why you do this to me buddy.


Overnight position before TSl was hit. Another data point to MAE.

Current Tally 430.5 + 47 = 477.5 (77.5 done will be rolled over to March's Z factor)

Nifty Winning streak = 9

Lost quite a few pips, but not feeling bad.

 

[Tuna]

A swift (and always Sweet) scalp of 16 pips on Nifty Long from 8790 (NF), booked full and out. But counting for only 1 lot here.

477.5 + 16 = 493.5 -> NF Tally since Jan (Yeah Boring - but stay with me plz).

Nifty Winning Streak = 10.

 

[Tuna]

Took 2 trades to earn mere 21 pips total (No overnight position since yesterday, guess need a pullback to charge up the bulls). Not meeting daily Z factor (32 pips) today and not trying hard either. Both were on Long (BB-CCI), switched to one minute due to the narrow range today.

Nifty Winning Streak = 11

493.5 + 21 = 514.5 pips till now (114.5 done for March).

Time to focus on Crude.

 

[Tuna]

Taking a chapter from TD's style: Price action for RBI event today: