Nifty 2017

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#41
Always, invariably you will find quite a handful of traders around on each instruments going against the trend, "oh it is too much up, lets short"
Or
“It is way too down, let’s buy”

Guys - calling the Top on the market which is trending up and calling the Bottom on a market trending down, are the most difficult thing, that’s why even experts prefer to miss the first 1/5th of a trend.
And here we want to catch the reversal at ground 0. You will get it someday if you short on each trending up day - but the time you get it, you already would have paid a lot on your losing trades. Stay with the trend, if you feel it’s too late to enter - don't enter, but don't go reverse of the trend for Christ sake!!
 

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#42
Booked 28 points on overnight position (8485 to 8513) and out.



need 4 more for today's Nifty Z Factor.

Jan's Tally:

294.5 + 28 = 322.5 (So in a way already covered +122 / 200 for Feb).
 

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#43
Last trade on Nifty today closed (As Z Factor achieved and now I don't care what happens to the index for rest of day). Will have a final look at market closing minute to decide if I need to do anything for the overnight trades.

Entry was at 8504 and Exit 8522 = 18


Jan's Tally:

322.5 + 18 = 340.5, 60 more points to achieve Feb target.

But what is worrying now, already had a winning streak of 7 trades (Nifty), gonna mess something big if I go as per law of average. Lets hope on my upcoming losing trade, I manage to get out quickly.
 

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#44
This is a post by a person I follow on Twitter - Extremely good trader, but kind of range bound trader/ Dholok Trader (I don't what else to call this kind of trading behavior) - he tends to buy on dip and short on rise - on same day, based on levels of his own (mostly guided by ATP and USD/INR pair value - though don't know what he exactly does).

But he is generally consistent and performs really well. But the drawback, sometime he messes up big time during trend accelerations day like today,
This was the last tweet from him - and don't have to tell why there were no further tweets for rest of the day:

"#NF booked 14 pt n sold @ 8524 SL 8527 bought 8450 PE"

Got Jacked Royally. He posts real time, and it was done approx 12:40 today I guess, as per twitter timeframe)

Oh yes, he does not keep SL at times.

(Bro - forgive me if I am kidding you on this forum , but if you read this, I knew you will find the market getting even with you on days like this. Putting butter on both side of the bread does not work always. You are matured player (surely a profitable one) - but making very basic mistake)
 
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Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#45
DJ 20K , CNBC Going banana


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

travi

Well-Known Member
#46
This is a post by a person I follow on Twitter - Extremely good trader, but kind of range bound trader/ Dholok Trader (I don't ...
(Bro - forgive me if I am kidding you on this forum , but if you read this, I knew you will find the market getting even with you on days like this. Putting butter on both side of the bread does not work always. You are matured player (surely a profitable one) - but making very basic mistake)
There would have been many like him :D:D
I myself was shocked, the OI didn't budge a bit.
There were ppl Shorting Calls, C_OI was going up or holding till 3:15.

I'd read your post yest, about smart money going long.
Am laughing at myself thinking of those who thought Nifty would have turned 100pts :D:D:D
Shouldn't pick tops n bottoms, just follow.
 

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#47
"Trade your chart" - I guess I have taken this too seriously.
Today, I was looking at SGX and thinking- Wow, what gap up opening if that happens, then, wait a min, today is republic day, so market is closed, is it? Checked the NSE holiday calendar - yes it is closed. Hey hang on, if Thursday is closed, we had expiry yesterday. Opened my terminal, found all the Jan series F&Os are off the marketwatch and realized yesterday was the expiry.

You may call me a moron - but yesterday, whole day I traded thinking expiry is tomorrow. I guess I need to add the elements of events on my weekly plan else I will screw it up someday big time. The problem is, earlier I used to do that, that was influencing the trade. Taking that off actually helping. But I guess I cannot afford to miss these out totally. It happened last November and now this month.
 

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#48
Nifty Weekly View (From 30th Jan - Till Friday)

All charts and levels are based on spot price

We had a fabulous rally, which was triggered at # 8440 odd level (Nifty Spot) on 24th Jan based on STI Flip MTF system (60,30,15 mins) - highest timeframe being the last once to flip - not the orthodox entry though. This typically happens when market reverses for good. The ideal entry (15 mins being the last one to flip) will happen during interim pullbacks which we shall see in the coming week. Also,watch out for the Fool's system trigger.

We had almost 230+ odd point rally since that entry, I hardly managed to get 100 odd out of it. Reason being, I was done with Jan's target was playing safe, but no excuse, I missed the meat of the rally. Simply staying in the game would have been more rewarding instead of multiple entry-exit I made. But as I told as long as I am reached my Z factor, I risk less.

Anyways, let start with weekly, We see some resistance at 8705 level, but holding above it will make the bull run more convincing.



On the Daily , Well it was almost 3 White Solders, but we are in resistance zone (8660-8740) - lots of grinding ahead to chew up the premiums of the longs on CE and PEs.



On the downside, I will be a little surprised if it retraces and sustain below 8550 , even if market paints a sad note on budget day - might offer an entry on the pullback to go long.

However, the hourly showing a sign of a slowdown - but remember 2 things we discussed:




  • if something is appearing too obvious, you are not alone watching that
  • Early bird gets the worm, the second mouse gets the cheese

I would let it go little down, cash on the pullback by going long (If I trade and get a level at pivot) and on the second attempt on hourly bearish signal (may be next 1-2days, I will short) - Again, theoretical. What I will do it real will be posted live.


Last chart - Fibonacci - we are well above 61.8% (8562 odd) - another reason I mentioned above, I will be surprised if it sustains below 8550 (the earlier based on daily fractal chaos band, not posting that to avoid confusion).

However, the reason, I posted is the Fibb time-cycle (Vertical lines, not clear enough though, so I put red circles on the milestones). It need not be precise, but we might form a temporary top in a day or two.



So guys, here we are on Nifty. Stay safe on budget day, 1st Feb I guess. Market already discounted any good news and will react violently only if it is too populist - whether I will exploit the short side or will wait for the pullback, I will reveal once I close my trades. But its no brainer to guess my entry, if you have seen my trades for last 6 months, including the live one on my earlier Nifty thread (which I discontinued as flagged non-compliant).


weekly pivot later - Kind of messed up, always happens if the previous weekly candle is a big one. Finding the confluence will be difficult.



So happy trading and make money but only following your rules and setup. Else it will come and will go away with extra pound of flesh, as it happens to all the rules-breakers.
 
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Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
#50
M short on Nifty since today morning.
lets see
Good Contra - if you got out today around 8550 spot, should have made good bucks. I don't prefer contra much on a positional trades though. But everyone has their own niche.
 

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