“Trading in the Zone” Is a bible in the trading world written by Mark Douglas. Some principals :
Anything can happen – expect only that something will. The market will move or express itself in some way. At any time of any day something may happen that will have an adverse effect on the behaviour of the markets. Whether it’s a news release, natural disaster or big trader reversing a position, you need to be at peace with the reality that at any time, anything can happen in the markets. Nobody knows what will happen. All we know for sure is something will.
I don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money
Just because we can’t know for sure if the market will go up or down, it doesn’t mean we can’t make money. Why? Because successful traders put the probabilities in their favour.
The odds are in my favour before I put on a trade; based on the market’s past behaviour the odds are good or at least acceptable of it moving in the direction of my trade. If you create a trading system (model) that has an “edge” over the market, then executing your trading plan with discipline gives you the best chance of keeping the odds in your favour. All I can lose is what it’ll cost me to find out if the trade is going to work. A loss is purely the cost of doing business – the amount of money I need to spend to make myself available for winning trades.
If you manage your risk effectively, all you can lose is the cost of finding out if your trade will be a winner. One of the costs of doing business for a restaurant owner is buying food. For a trader, spending money on losing trades, to ensure you’re there for the winners, is your cost of doing business.
There’s a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge; every loss puts me closer to a win.
This means it’s impossible to know which trades will win and which will lose. If your trading model wins 6 out of every 10 trades, you can never know which of those 10 trades will be winners or losers before you put them on. So even if your first 4 trades are losers, you should continue to trade the model with confidence. If the model’s working, your winning trades are coming.
An edge is nothing more than a higher probability of one thing happening over another. It’s not about being right, avoiding being wrong or proving anything. It’s about listening to the market when it tells me when my edge isn’t working or it’s time to take profits. Completely accept what the market is offering and wait for my next edge.Understand that just because you’ve had a few winners, it doesn’t mean you were right. It simply means the probability was in your favour…or you were lucky. Conversely, a string of losing trades (within parameters) doesn’t mean you were wrong, it’s simply part of the reality of trading. Losing trades are unavoidable.
Every moment in the market is unique.If you win a trade and the next setup (eg. price pattern) looks identical, it doesn’t mean it will win too. Every trade has a 50:50 chance of winning or losing. It’s only when you batch trades together that you demonstrate an edge over the market – a higher probability of winning over a number of trades.
Get intimate with these fundamental truths and ensure you understand the reality of trading…not just what your emotions might lead you to believe is happening…