My Crude Oil positional trades.

[ScorpionKing]

Was long since 09.10.2018 from 5550. Did not exit @ yesterday's downward cross over @7.00pm. I was waiting for some recovery to exit with reduced loss but it did not recover till end. In night it further went down. Expecting 150 point loss in the morning.
Shall we exit at exact cross over or to wait for some recovery in future?
Strategy works well in trend. We have to be extra careful in sideways action on hourly timeframe.
My humble opinion.
Suggestions, comments are welcome.
View attachment 29430

hi umeship,

just a suggestion - i am new too raw/untested to offer advice. but lets try and address the problem head on.

you are sure that your strategy works in a trend. simple - use it only in a trend.

now, the tough part is - how do we identify a trend. a pullback may look like one at times too, correct. so we address this by going to renko which is clearer on this count.

from what i see you seem to use an 1 hour chart. now, i do not have any basis for this but i treat a 15 min renko as the equivalent of a 1 hour candle stick chart. (do not trust me on this one though - i could be wrong - just that visual similarity is what i based it on)

now how does your chart look to me with an overlay of 20 EMA (short trend), 50 EMA (mod trend) and 200 EMA (long trend) - again, the ema values are just kind of hit and trail because they are popular among traders and by default significant - you may use any that you feel are better.

so this is how your chart looks to me now -

short term and mod term trend down for now with the long trend still up, but kind of weak (200 ema getting kind of horizontal slowly)

200 ema breach has not occurred yet - may be tested shortly.

so now - were you in the trade for a long term, mod term or short term?. that will answer the time of your exit.

but watch out since crude is one hell of a volatile commodity. today inventory will be the key. if 200 is breached or if 200 rejects the Price bars.

just give this a thought and do not trust my words - i am on the learning curve too - just my renko logic here, lol

good trading to you

 

[umeshlp]

Thanks Scorpianking. It might help to be alert before hand.[/QUOTE]

Just thinking can we use heikin ashi on 15 min instead of Renko?

 

[imfine]

Hi all

My current position is crudeoilm oct 2018 sold at 5513 CMP 5540 (-27 Points)
View attachment 29219

As said patience pays. I sold it on 6th oct and the CMP is 5132 (+300 points)

 

[imfine]

Was long since 09.10.2018 from 5550. Did not exit @ yesterday's downward cross over @7.00pm. I was waiting for some recovery to exit with reduced loss but it did not recover till end. In night it further went down. Expecting 150 point loss in the morning.
Shall we exit at exact cross over or to wait for some recovery in future?
Strategy works well in trend. We have to be extra careful in sideways action on hourly timeframe.
My humble opinion.
Suggestions, comments are welcome.
View attachment 29430

I can suggest you only to blindly follow a system. If its crossover then its means the market has violated the price for last 50 trades don't let your baseless emotions stop you to trigger the stop loss. You can see my previous trades where in my trade goes 90 + points against but as it was no cross over i kept it and then it moved back and leave good profit at the end. Market runs on it own.

Positional trades requires patience and discipline.

 

[ScorpionKing]

I can suggest you only to blindly follow a system. If its crossover then its means the market has violated the price for last 50 trades don't let your baseless emotions stop you to trigger the stop loss. You can see my previous trades where in my trade goes 90 + points against but as it was no cross over i kept it and then it moved back and leave good profit at the end. Market runs on it own.

Positional trades requires patience and discipline.

well said and i really love the discipline you follow.

you are one of the few positional traders i wish i could be like someday but i know i never will.

when i look at your trades i realize you need just one win to easily beat ten wins of a scalper like me. lol, its not fair - i feel at times, . but when i see the amount of patience and discipline behind each trade as a swing or a trend trader - i realize - yes, ok - these guys work so much harder than me.

just keep beating yourself with each trade and getting better. that is the road to discipline i guess - a path that leads to success eventually.

keep inspiring others and showing us how to make the impossible a possibility.

good trading to you like always

 

[umeshlp]

I can suggest you only to blindly follow a system. If its crossover then its means the market has violated the price for last 50 trades don't let your baseless emotions stop you to trigger the stop loss. You can see my previous trades where in my trade goes 90 + points against but as it was no cross over i kept it and then it moved back and leave good profit at the end. Market runs on it own.

Positional trades requires patience and discipline.

I agree, sir!

 

[hames]

As said patience pays. I sold it on 6th oct and the CMP is 5132 (+300 points)

View attachment 29695

Is the short position closed now at crossover on 1 hr at 4934 ?

 

[imfine]

Is the short position closed now at crossover on 1 hr at 4934 ?

No my short position is not closed. Sold at 5513 CMP 4954 (559 points). See pic. Though have carried to new expiry. Crossover has not happened.

 

[timepass]

Hi,

I shall be posting my trades in Crude Oil here. They are not Intraday but positional so there will be no SL and no Target and very few trades. Mostly these will be trend following system.

I had tried Equity and have got taste of success but due to lack of time i cant continue with it. I was looking for a something where in I can give minimum input (time ) and need not to be in front of system all day long. So lets cut it short I found one system which is not 100% accurate but wherein the loss is few and profit is more.

the system is

1. Use of EMA, MA
2. RSI
3. Candlestick Chart 1HR only. 4HR/Daily (if required).

The performance. This is in Crude oil mini.
View attachment 26122

The best point for me in this is that it gives you time to think and react and also if you are wrong then loss is very low as compare to profit. Some will say that it will work only in trending market which to some extent is right thats why crudeoil which is highly liquid and hardly stays in range (max one week). As I said not SL and no Target we will trade the trend and be ready to give (Stop loss) to market what it takes and be ready to take from market (profit).

As 19th june was expiry so I am out of trade and will post my trade once got signal as per my system.

thanks.

What are the moving averages you are using ? Also, what is the role of RSI ? Do you take the trade when the RSI is in oversold/overbought zone or crosses 50 ?

 

[imfine]

What are the moving averages you are using ? Also, what is the role of RSI ? Do you take the trade when the RSI is in oversold/overbought zone or crosses 50 ?

Ema 20 Ma 50
RSI confirms how strong the trend is if 20 crosses 50 from below then buy with confirmation of RSI above 50 and vice versa.
No target No stoploss.
You will get many minor losses which can be covered by few big moves and will leave profit atlast.
Last three trades
1. -60
2. -78
3. 500 + and running.