Mistakes I made in the Flow Method

ravalsb

Active Member
#76
Hi All,

Today I made a big blunder in mini flow trading....mother of all mistakes.

I went long at break of 11.45 15min bar @ 3118.20(considering it as WRB reversal), only to realise later that i was looking at 15mn chart instead of 30min chart.

That put me in panic mode as what to do on this trade... to square off immediately or wat? Then, kept SAR at low of 11.45 bar as its negation would be my stops in this case. Didnt reverse to short positions 'cos lot of things were going thru mind.

Once stops were hit, took a coffee break, relaxed a bit and came back fresh and shorted at days low @ 3049 and covered @ 2980.

Think the problem was last two days runaway rallies were playing at the back of my mind and that was continously prompting me to look for reversals which were never there.

One more learning for me is reversals on WRB better be taken on 30min chart.

Regards
 
V

vvvv

Guest
#77
Hope you guys dont mind me posting here... Segul..you were saying something about MP.. I will love to know more.

For those who use Amibroker, I have written this AFL.. which shows the MarketProfile levels where there is more congestion...(Its not MP AFL)...You can use this to identify major support/resistance level.

warning : Use this just as a reference... nothing can replace the visual pivot and congestion zone identification

I call this AFL MudPuddle
========================================================
_SECTION_BEGIN("MudPuddle");
SetBarsRequired(1000,1000);

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// Global Variables
weekly = ParamToggle("Weekly","off|On");
zoneCol = ParamColor("Congestion Zone", colorGrey50);
Days = Param("Days",2,1,300,1);
style = ParamStyle("Style");

NewDay =Day()!= Ref(Day(), 1);
if ( weekly )
{
NewDay =DayOfWeek() > Ref(DayOfWeek(), 1);
Days = 1;

if ( LastValue(DayOfWeek()) < 3 )
{
Days = 7;
}
}
DH =LastValue(HighestSince(NewDay, H, Days));
DL =LastValue(LowestSince(NewDay, L, Days));
Range = DH - DL;

start = LastValue(ValueWhen(NewDay, Cum(1), Days));
end = LastValue(Cum(1)) -1;

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// Congestion Zone Calculation and Drawing
profile = C - C;
procedure caclulateCongestionZone()
{
for ( pos = 0; pos < Range; pos ++ )
{
profile[pos] = 0;
Location = DH - pos;
bars = 0;
for ( i = start; i <= end; i ++ )
{
if(H >= Location AND L <= Location)
{
bars ++;
}
}
profile[pos] = bars;
}
}
procedure drawCongestionZone()
{
caclulateCongestionZone();

// main array with the profile
top = LastValue(Highest(profile))/Param("Sensitivity",1.2,1,100,0.05);

for ( pos = 0 ; pos < Range; pos++)
{
if ( profile[pos] >= top)
{
Plot(DH - pos,"",zoneCol,styleNoLabel|style,0,0,3);
}
}
}

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// Main program
drawCongestionZone();

_SECTION_END();
==========================================================
Settings (right click and parameters)
Days : default is 2 ... You can increase the number of days but it will Hog the CPU
Sensitivity : it shows the higest congestion zones... default is 1.2 .. increase to get less levels .. decrease to get more levels
Weekly : Instead of using days .. can use weekly ..if its monday or twesday then it will use friday,etc .. in calculation

If it gives error.. reduce number of days...(if in weekly, come back to daily and reduce days)

Enjoy,




didnt know u were into MP...thnks for the stuff...i hope im able to understand this one....
for those who dont know, pramod is 1 of the master afl programmers here...
 

niftychance

Well-Known Member
#79
Hi
Can any one post a screen shot for the marketprofile.
A bit confused what are we talking about...

Would like to know from alex and others if this thread needs to be only for Flow Methods or "anything goes as long as its about trading" kind ...

No offence plz ...

Thanks
 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#80
Deja vu of 3/11/08

Posting chart of 5/11/08 with similar situation:



this is the 30min flow method, with an eye on 60 min as overall reference
we come down to 15/20 if we dont have any pivots in 30

not all pivots in 15/20 are "reversal" pivots... we have to confirm its importance with 30/60 chart...

in 15/20 we have a pivot high at 3133
let's see 30min - 5 completed sideway bars, none threatening the high of the 1st bar (with high 3145.50)
in 60, it's also apparent that reversal only on break of that WRB with high 3145.50

so, my SAR is 3145.50+7

we are looking for a reversal of the flow; not scalping longs
So, even till the end of Bar 15 in 15min chart, the SAR remains fixed at high+room of Bar6(15min) / Bar4(30min) / Bar 3(60min)
ie 3145.5+7
 

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