Date : 12 dec 2016
Traded Tatasteel today for 2 trades. Both on short side. 1st trade was as per my plan and lost 0.4R. But then 2nd trade was not as per the system.. took it early and lost another 0.6R.
Slowly getting fade off with my performance as since November beginning this has been my story where i make around 1R one day and loose it on next few days overall staying breakeven.. these flat days are really has made me question my beliefs on trading.. loosing interest to even look at a chart after market..
I have had seen worse loosing month than this before but had never felt this way the way i am feeling right now. Now its becoming more tough to keep my thought straight and work.. i feel like there is no more fire left in me.. dnt know how to face this situation..
Streaks happen, since you have tested this on large sample try to stick with it and then maybe review after every 30-50 trades. Is market behaving differently? A big challenge of trading BO system is to stay alive in sideways/choppy markets and then not loose willpower/courage/belief as sideways turn to trend days. I found this very hard and easy to get chopped up and down. Breakeven is an achievement in itself.
If in future you feel need for system review, consider being more selective in your trades.
A very nice way to filter out sideways periods is to wait for clear imbalance in price. When is price in clear imbalance?, couple of simple ways below ( taken from the book that i am trying to implement in future)
1) Wait for strong momentum leg and only then look for entry as a weaker pullback flag turns using BO/Rejection Entries. This means we will give up the preceding leg movement.
Example SBIN 15m today is a good setup leg (taken alone, 1H is less favorable so maybe not good trade but anyway )
Notice strong push to lower band away from MA and also a new recent momentum low in MACD ( Diff of MA10 and MA3 ). A sideways period will have price hanging around MA without a strong push ( TS today - slow DT).
Premise is momentum begets momentum, A strong leg often sets up another push.
2) Another variation that shows market imbalance is a 'High and Tight' Pattern. Price makes a string push and then stays in a tight range. If price is able to stay near extreme after a strong push, it means mean reversion is failing. Eg, TS yesterday, Strong open move, Tight range near Band Extreme and continuation.
Above 2 are basic idea of filtering out sideways, There are more details and HTF considerations that we can add. Maybe you can use them on slow/sideways days with your method or when you are facing a streak.
Anyway, Most people probably wont reach where you are, setbacks are expected in trading, take a break if you feel burnt out.