Food for Thought........!

[S S]

Hi!

As per Elliot Wave Analysis, 61.80% correction is considered to be healthy. Therefore, it would be better for the spot Nifty to correct till around 7698, before starting it’s upward move.

The high of 7991 on 27th April may be a resistance level, but in case the spot Nifty corrects till around 7698 and then turns around, it can successfully cross this level to move upwards.

However, as the spot Nifty moves towards 7698, if it does not reverse around this level, then there is a chance that it shall proceed to touch the support at around 7516, and then turn upwards. Less likely, but not impossible.

With the timely arrival of monsoon, the markets are likely move upwards. So, in my opinion, the monsoon is likely to arrive in time, if the spot Nifty turns upwards after touching 7698.

My opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

This Good Boy Spot Nifty has behaved itself. In my posting on 6th May 2016, I ended the message by saying, … and I quote –

“
Notice that the gap between the upper and lower Bollinger bands also has reduced. This may imply two things –

One. Either the spot Nifty will remain sideways for some time and then move upwards, or
Two. The spot Nifty may straight away start moving upwards.

And this time, when the Nifty does that, it shall continue it’s upward move till it hits the upper Bollinger band.

And I could be wrong, but from now on, I am following the policy of “Buy on Dips” for all stocks where I already have some holdings, which I now wish to increase.
”
Unquote.

Then last week I wrote, and I quote –
“
The high of 7991 on 27th April may be a resistance level, but in case the spot Nifty corrects till around 7698 and then turns around, it can successfully cross this level to move upwards.
“
Unquote

What happened on yesterday Wed 25th May and today on Thu 26th May was a massacre. It appears that many were thinking that just because it is the settlement day today, that the markets shall fall and such persons had shorted heavily. Some of them wisely squared off yesterday, which pushed the spot Nifty up rapidly without touching the 7698 level, which had got truncated at around 7715 on 24th May 2016.

As expected, the spot Nifty not only moved to touch the upper Bollinger Band level, but has gone much beyond it. (See the Indigo coloured line, which today is around 8021 level). Now, spot Nifty is expected to proceed to the level around 8172, as seen in the chart above, and surely this move shall NOT be in a straight line, but with some raises and falls. Level of around 7880 is likely to act as a strong support now.

My opinion based on my understanding of the markets and the charts, and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

That was Great! The Spot Nifty was in a real hurry to close at around 8156, beating the levels of the Top Bollinger Band (in Indigo coloured line, not clearly visible, being hidden behind the candle) at around 8097 and the Top Keltner Band (in Golden coloured line, not clearly visible, being hidden behind the candle) at around 8075.

What does this mean?

First, the target of around 8172 appears to have been almost achieved. And because the candle has shot over both these bands, in my opinion, the subsequent candles for spot Nifty could remain sideways, and even could move little downwards.

This sideways movement could be for a week or even two weeks, and the spot Nifty is expected to remain between the resistance at the top at around 8172 and the support at the bottom at around 7880.

The pattern developing out of this sideways movement shall decide the likely pattern thereafter. So, time to relax. In my opinion, there could be no major variations likely, and hence there may not be a charm in trading in F&O 

My opinion based on my knowledge of the charts and the markets, and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi !

I had anticipated the spot Nifty to remain sideways or even move little downwards during the last week. In reality, Nifty was left with some more steam, than anticipated. Therefore, even the sideways movements, as seen from the candles for the last week, did not indicate any downward trending.

In the above chart, the Fibonacci levels can be seen, which are drawn from the high of around 9119 on 4th March 2015 (not visible in the chart) to the low of around 6825 on 29th Feb 2016. Thereafter, the 61.8% retracement is not only completed, but the spot Nifty has somewhat overshot a little.

This shows a positivity, which is likely to get reflected in real life in the near future. There is something happening, which we all do not know, and that something is keeping the Nifty strong. If I am correct, then in the near future, there may be some such news coming out, which may strongly push the spot Nifty up temporarily for a day or two, before starting the downward action.

But if nothing is in the offing, then the spot Nifty shall continue it’s sideways movement for some time, which could take a sudden turn downwards.

Just because the spot Nifty had been going full steam ahead, one should NOT take it for granted. The result shall be devastating, if one does that. For some time, unless the picture gets clear, one should trade purely on the daily moods and clues, which keep getting changed every alternate hour.

My opinion, and I could be wrong.

Cheers & Good Luck.
SS

 

[S S]

Hi !

On 27th May 2016, I had written that the spot Nifty may make sideways movement for a week or two. By sideways movement, I meant that the spot Nifty shall be range bound and without any major moves, up or down.

From the chart, one could see that between the points marked ‘1’ and ‘2’ , the spot Nifty was range bound. Then the strong upward move could be seen by the three greenish blue candles.

In today’s chart at the close of the trading session, one finds that the Nifty has stayed between the two dotted black lines and appears to have taken support from the 10 DMA Red line.

However, after having touched the Upper Bollinger Band and having crossed it, usually the Nifty moves downwards to touch the Lower Bollinger Band. During this time period, it keeps it’s moves sideways but little downwards.

As the Nifty moves sideways that Both the Lower Bands start improving themselves and move upwards. This continues till the spot Nifty hits/crosses the Lower Bands.

Today, both the Bands appear to be between the range 7780-7950, while the spot Nifty has closed today at around 8170.

Now, how fast the two Bands move upwards or how fast the spot Nifty manages to come down, so that both meet and cross each other, is anyone’s guess.

I may be wrong, but in such a situation, going long may be suicidal, unless one is stock specific and knows what one is doing. Better not follow anyone’s suggestions blindly.

Cheers & Good Luck !
SS

 

[S S]

Hi !

Last message I had ended saying that “going long may be suicidal”. The last five candles in the chart below for last week’s spot Nifty show that the said warning was not incorrect.

From this chart, there are few things noticeably clear, which one must remember. The 10 DMA Red line is running through the last three candles. Only one of these five candles has crossed the lower Bollinger Band. The last two candles show that the spot Nifty tried to go up, but failed.

Therefore, it appears that the spot Nifty has found a new range to dance, with the recent low of around 8064 on 13th Jun 2016 and the previous high of around 8295 a week earlier on 7th Jun 2016. Nifty may remain range bound for some time but before that, it can even make an attempt to break the lower black dotted line at around 8064 to make a new low in the near future to enlarge the range.

If the spot Nifty does not break this new range downwards, it may move upwards towards the black dotted line at around 8295 and most possibly rebound from there.

So, in all probabilities, this range of about 230 points between 8065 & 8295 may remain to be Nifty’s domain for the remaining part of the month.

If and only if the spot Nifty breaks either below 8065 (and also closes below 8065), or breaks above 8295 (and also closes above 8295), that the circumstances shall change. If at all that happens, then it would mostly happen due to some unforeseen circumstances no one knows today.

I may be wrong, but I expect the spot Nifty to open on Mon 20th Jun 2016 around the Red 10 DMA line and stay below it for most part of the day. In the event that does not happen and the Nifty soars upwards, it is sure to rebound back to the lower most black dotted line thereafter.

My opinion based on my understandings of the markets and the charts, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS

NB : Remember that if you click on the yellow bar above the chart, the chart enlarges and you can view it better.

 

[S S]

Hi !

In my last posting, I had written :

Therefore, it appears that the spot Nifty has found a new range to dance, with the recent low of around 8064 on 13th Jun 2016 and the previous high of around 8295 a week earlier on 7th Jun 2016. Nifty may remain range bound for some time but before that, it can even make an attempt to break the lower black dotted line at around 8064 to make a new low in the near future to enlarge the range.

If the spot Nifty does not break this new range downwards, it may move upwards towards the black dotted line at around 8295 and most possibly rebound from there.

So, in all probabilities, this range of about 230 points between 8065 & 8295 may remain to be Nifty’s domain for the remaining part of the month.

If and only if the spot Nifty breaks either below 8065 (and also closes below 8065), or breaks above 8295 (and also closes above 8295), that the circumstances shall change. If at all that happens, then it would mostly happen due to some unforeseen circumstances no one knows today.

In spite of the Prime Minister of Britain requesting the British citizens to vote for remaining with the European Union that the citizens voted for an Exit (BRExit). The strength of European currency, the Euro, was in the unity of the European nations. With Britain out, now Netherlands opposition leader has demanded a similar vote to be conducted to decide, whether that country should remain with the European Union, or Exit. Similar reactions are from other European countries too.

It may take a couple of years to practically sort out the BRExit decision and till then, Britain shall be a part of the European Union. The terms and conditions for it’s exit shall have to be carefully worked out by that government along with the rest of the European Union.

This, in my opinion, was an unforeseen circumstances developed, which pushed the markets all over the world in downward direction. And yet, the Nifty recovered to close within it’s current dancing ground between the upper and lower black dotted lines in the chart.

The initial impact of BRExit shall go on diminishing and the markets shall recover. This shall keep the spot Nifty above the lower black dotted line around 8061, and therefore, the spot Nifty is likely to remain in the upper and lower two black dotted line for balance part of the month, as was written in my earlier posting.

The beauty of spot Nifty is that the close on Friday 24th June is very much above the open, whereas for most of the other world indices, they are too much deep in Red. Only the spot Nifty candle is in the green, which means India was better prepared for such and similar situation, than any other country in the world.

I think that the spot Nifty is likely to open Mon 27th June 2016 around 8088, where it has closed on Fri 24th Jun, or a little above it.

My opinion based on my understanding of the markets and the charts and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
S S

 

[timepass]

The initial impact of BRExit shall go on diminishing and the markets shall recover.

IMO, that's pretty iffy. I guess the initial impact will deepen a bit over the next few days (but 30th June is too near) before the markets find their feet and further direction.

What if nifty does not sustain this range and dips below ?

 

[S S]

TP,

No one really knows the exact impact of BRExit on world economics. It is assumed that the BRExit shall trigger the action for disintegration of EU, and as a result, each country shall have it's own currency as it had before EU was formed. Euro shall be non-existent. This shall make the US $ a supreme currency once again, and the global investors are likely to consider moving back to the US from Europe.

Fair enough. It may or may NOT happen, but the impact of all the said action shall be lesser on Asian markets than the European markets. As it is, India is doing far better than the other global countries, and therefore, I expect some of the global investors to sit on fence and observe, than quitting their investments in India.

Needless to say that when the investments do NOT leave the country, there is no outflow of foreign exchange, the Indian markets shall remain stable, comparitively.

My opinion and I could be wrong.
SS

 

[apegaonkar9]

Hello
I would like to add possible perspective , As expected uk pound has crushed like any thing and will be even at worst level against $ compare to € , There is others theret lurking in corner as George Soros is bearish and will manipulate China currency already he satrted playing his cards ( very few will doubt about Soros ability on currency manipulation) , Even China expressed displeasure to US.
If this nightmare comes true in coming months or year it will be disastrous
For Asia region.
One of most important event in November this year US election. If Trump wins ....... My mind is getting numb.
Still Gulf needs lot to revive ...."
In all this uncertainty makes stock market wonderful place , I love .