Food for Thought........!
- Thread starter S S
- Start date
Hi!
On Sat 2nd Aug 2014, I was in double minds, whether to post this message or not to post it. Safely, I delayed the decision and finally decided to post it now.
While NaMo’s “Acche Din Aayenge” I had a chat with an Auto driver, who was complaining that the prices have not come down after Namo has taken over. After knowing that he was driving the auto for over 25 years, my simple explanation to him was the following :
I said, suppose you are given an auto where all tires have become useless, the carburetor has conked off, silencer is making a lot of noise, and the worst, the petrol pumps, where CNG is made available are mostly out of order.
He thought for a while and said, I need to get the auto and the petrol pumps repaired first.
But that will cost you money and others shall be looking up to you as an expert auto driver, when you will not be driving but shall only be doing the repairs essentially needed.
He agreed.
That is what has happened to the country’s economy. Time is needed to get it repaired first, without bowing to the pressures from the US and the European nations. And, THAT, is what exactly NaMo is doing. Give him time.
But till then, the Nifty chart s on the closing of Fri 1st Aug 2014 shows that the correction is inevitable and for the correction to be healthy, it needs a 61.8% correction.
That means the Spot Nifty needs to go to the level as low as around 6660.
This could be a great opportunity for all to wait for the spot Nifty to go to that low and once it turns upwards, buy. Till then only short with proper safety.
Only caution is that the Nifty may NOT go for 61.8% correction and may turn upwards either at 38.2% around 7110 or at 50% around 6885. So anyone shorting needs to watch for these levels to ensure that they are not caught on the wrong foot after shorting the Nifty and waiting for the 6660 level.
This is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
On Sat 2nd Aug 2014, I was in double minds, whether to post this message or not to post it. Safely, I delayed the decision and finally decided to post it now.
While NaMo’s “Acche Din Aayenge” I had a chat with an Auto driver, who was complaining that the prices have not come down after Namo has taken over. After knowing that he was driving the auto for over 25 years, my simple explanation to him was the following :
I said, suppose you are given an auto where all tires have become useless, the carburetor has conked off, silencer is making a lot of noise, and the worst, the petrol pumps, where CNG is made available are mostly out of order.
He thought for a while and said, I need to get the auto and the petrol pumps repaired first.
But that will cost you money and others shall be looking up to you as an expert auto driver, when you will not be driving but shall only be doing the repairs essentially needed.
He agreed.
That is what has happened to the country’s economy. Time is needed to get it repaired first, without bowing to the pressures from the US and the European nations. And, THAT, is what exactly NaMo is doing. Give him time.
But till then, the Nifty chart s on the closing of Fri 1st Aug 2014 shows that the correction is inevitable and for the correction to be healthy, it needs a 61.8% correction.
That means the Spot Nifty needs to go to the level as low as around 6660.
This could be a great opportunity for all to wait for the spot Nifty to go to that low and once it turns upwards, buy. Till then only short with proper safety.
Only caution is that the Nifty may NOT go for 61.8% correction and may turn upwards either at 38.2% around 7110 or at 50% around 6885. So anyone shorting needs to watch for these levels to ensure that they are not caught on the wrong foot after shorting the Nifty and waiting for the 6660 level.
This is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Last edited:
Hi!
I am attaching WEEKLY Chart for Bank Nifty for the week ending Fri 8th Aug 2014. You would notice that the two large candles which have moved the Bank Nifty from the 50% level to 100% level are during the first fortnight of May 2014, when the election results for the Loksabha Elections were yet to be declared.
And like I always say, the chart is “Kundali” of the things to happen. The sudden surge itself was indicating the confirmation of NaMo wave before the counting was done. The stock markets knew it in advance, as always.
Since then the Bank Nifty has been a kind of range bound. Every time the news of likely reduction in the rates by RBI flares up, there is an upward or downward surge, but still keeping the Bank Nifty range bound.
It is evident that if there a correction in the overall market, then with the Nifty falling to the levels specified in my previous message a week ago, shall take the Bank Nifty also down. But to what level, and why?
Recently, there were two news items. One was about the Syndicate Bank CMD getting apprehended and other was about the IDBI Bank giving loan to Kingfisher Airlines when the later was sinking.
I believe that there is a strong chance of some such large Golmal getting unearthed, leading to the fall in the overall markets and also in the Banking Sector.
This is my opinion based on my reading of the charts and I could be (hopefully) wrong.
Cheers!
SS
I am attaching WEEKLY Chart for Bank Nifty for the week ending Fri 8th Aug 2014. You would notice that the two large candles which have moved the Bank Nifty from the 50% level to 100% level are during the first fortnight of May 2014, when the election results for the Loksabha Elections were yet to be declared.
And like I always say, the chart is “Kundali” of the things to happen. The sudden surge itself was indicating the confirmation of NaMo wave before the counting was done. The stock markets knew it in advance, as always.
Since then the Bank Nifty has been a kind of range bound. Every time the news of likely reduction in the rates by RBI flares up, there is an upward or downward surge, but still keeping the Bank Nifty range bound.
It is evident that if there a correction in the overall market, then with the Nifty falling to the levels specified in my previous message a week ago, shall take the Bank Nifty also down. But to what level, and why?
Recently, there were two news items. One was about the Syndicate Bank CMD getting apprehended and other was about the IDBI Bank giving loan to Kingfisher Airlines when the later was sinking.
I believe that there is a strong chance of some such large Golmal getting unearthed, leading to the fall in the overall markets and also in the Banking Sector.
This is my opinion based on my reading of the charts and I could be (hopefully) wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Hi!
I am attaching WEEKLY Chart for Bank Nifty for the week ending Fri 8th Aug 2014. You would notice that the two large candles which have moved the Bank Nifty from the 50% level to 100% level are during the first fortnight of May 2014, when the election results for the Loksabha Elections were yet to be declared.
And like I always say, the chart is “Kundali” of the things to happen. The sudden surge itself was indicating the confirmation of NaMo wave before the counting was done. The stock markets knew it in advance, as always.
Since then the Bank Nifty has been a kind of range bound. Every time the news of likely reduction in the rates by RBI flares up, there is an upward or downward surge, but still keeping the Bank Nifty range bound.
It is evident that if there a correction in the overall market, then with the Nifty falling to the levels specified in my previous message a week ago, shall take the Bank Nifty also down. But to what level, and why?
Recently, there were two news items. One was about the Syndicate Bank CMD getting apprehended and other was about the IDBI Bank giving loan to Kingfisher Airlines when the later was sinking.
I believe that there is a strong chance of some such large Golmal getting unearthed, leading to the fall in the overall markets and also in the Banking Sector.
This is my opinion based on my reading of the charts and I could be (hopefully) wrong.
Cheers!
SS
I am attaching WEEKLY Chart for Bank Nifty for the week ending Fri 8th Aug 2014. You would notice that the two large candles which have moved the Bank Nifty from the 50% level to 100% level are during the first fortnight of May 2014, when the election results for the Loksabha Elections were yet to be declared.
And like I always say, the chart is “Kundali” of the things to happen. The sudden surge itself was indicating the confirmation of NaMo wave before the counting was done. The stock markets knew it in advance, as always.
Since then the Bank Nifty has been a kind of range bound. Every time the news of likely reduction in the rates by RBI flares up, there is an upward or downward surge, but still keeping the Bank Nifty range bound.
It is evident that if there a correction in the overall market, then with the Nifty falling to the levels specified in my previous message a week ago, shall take the Bank Nifty also down. But to what level, and why?
Recently, there were two news items. One was about the Syndicate Bank CMD getting apprehended and other was about the IDBI Bank giving loan to Kingfisher Airlines when the later was sinking.
I believe that there is a strong chance of some such large Golmal getting unearthed, leading to the fall in the overall markets and also in the Banking Sector.
This is my opinion based on my reading of the charts and I could be (hopefully) wrong.
Cheers!
SS
OMSAI,
Thank you for your comment. But I see a contradiction in your comment.
I may be wrong, but this is how I interpret your comment :
If you agree with my posting, then you have to agree that the overall trend for the markets in the near future could be downwards. And yet, you point out that the Festival season may rescue the markets.
This tells me that you want the markets to go upwards in spite of my analysis indicating a likely downward movement for the markets. This could be wishful thinking, which is extremely dangerous.
Ideally, on each day, one needs to see the market trend after about an hour or more from their opening and then decide if one needs to go long or short. But while doing so, one has to keep the likely trend of the market at one’s back of the mind.
If one agrees with the analysis of the downward trend and yet has a wishful thinking for the markets to go up, one goes long and tries to dictate the markets to go up, which is Hara-kiri. Majority of the traders loose only because they stick to their own wishful thing, ignore the actual market trend and try dictating the markets.
Like I said, I may be wrong. So, you think and take your proper decision, so you could claim the credit/discredit for your own decision.
I just analyse the chart as I see them, I could be wrong, and hence advise readers NOT to follow what I write, but to think and take action for what they think is correct.
Good luck!
SS
Thank you for your comment. But I see a contradiction in your comment.
I may be wrong, but this is how I interpret your comment :
If you agree with my posting, then you have to agree that the overall trend for the markets in the near future could be downwards. And yet, you point out that the Festival season may rescue the markets.
This tells me that you want the markets to go upwards in spite of my analysis indicating a likely downward movement for the markets. This could be wishful thinking, which is extremely dangerous.
Ideally, on each day, one needs to see the market trend after about an hour or more from their opening and then decide if one needs to go long or short. But while doing so, one has to keep the likely trend of the market at one’s back of the mind.
If one agrees with the analysis of the downward trend and yet has a wishful thinking for the markets to go up, one goes long and tries to dictate the markets to go up, which is Hara-kiri. Majority of the traders loose only because they stick to their own wishful thing, ignore the actual market trend and try dictating the markets.
Like I said, I may be wrong. So, you think and take your proper decision, so you could claim the credit/discredit for your own decision.
I just analyse the chart as I see them, I could be wrong, and hence advise readers NOT to follow what I write, but to think and take action for what they think is correct.
Good luck!
SS
Hi!
Usually, it is the Friday when the profit booking takes place, which brings the markets to lower level. But last Friday, everyone felt more an Independent Citizen of the country than earlier. That is because slowly, the mindset of a common man is changing, and is changing for better.
And yet I keep writing that the markets may go down, when most of the others look at the current scenario as a perfect bull market, which has to go up.
And today’s news item in the newspaper gave me the clue. I believe that the RBI may RAISE some of the critical rates, which may have an adverse effect on the markets to take them down. If one checks all the individual stocks which are currently the index stocks, or were the index stocks in last couple of years (and were replaced) one would get surprised to note the fall in the stock value so far.
One such stock is Colgate Palmolive. The specialty of this company is that the company keeps giving interim dividends, so the annual dividend gets spread over the whole year. And yet, there is a significant fall in the stock prices, the reason for which I have NOT tried to find. But it is evident that the stock price could go to the low of around 1385 (at 61.8% correction) or even to the recent double bottom lows on 20th/23rd May 2014 around 1325.
If one watches this stock, it could be a very good long term investment. In real terms, it should hereafter be the policy of ‘buy on dips’ in small quantities, till it bottoms out and turns upwards.
As far as the Nifty is concerned, I still maintain that there could be a minimum correction of 38.2% to bring the spot Nifty down to around 7020 level.
One must remember that when I write a lower target, it does NOT mean that the price fall is in a straight line. Market price shall go in it’s usual up-down zig-zag fashion.
But that is my opinion, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Usually, it is the Friday when the profit booking takes place, which brings the markets to lower level. But last Friday, everyone felt more an Independent Citizen of the country than earlier. That is because slowly, the mindset of a common man is changing, and is changing for better.
And yet I keep writing that the markets may go down, when most of the others look at the current scenario as a perfect bull market, which has to go up.
And today’s news item in the newspaper gave me the clue. I believe that the RBI may RAISE some of the critical rates, which may have an adverse effect on the markets to take them down. If one checks all the individual stocks which are currently the index stocks, or were the index stocks in last couple of years (and were replaced) one would get surprised to note the fall in the stock value so far.
One such stock is Colgate Palmolive. The specialty of this company is that the company keeps giving interim dividends, so the annual dividend gets spread over the whole year. And yet, there is a significant fall in the stock prices, the reason for which I have NOT tried to find. But it is evident that the stock price could go to the low of around 1385 (at 61.8% correction) or even to the recent double bottom lows on 20th/23rd May 2014 around 1325.
If one watches this stock, it could be a very good long term investment. In real terms, it should hereafter be the policy of ‘buy on dips’ in small quantities, till it bottoms out and turns upwards.
As far as the Nifty is concerned, I still maintain that there could be a minimum correction of 38.2% to bring the spot Nifty down to around 7020 level.
One must remember that when I write a lower target, it does NOT mean that the price fall is in a straight line. Market price shall go in it’s usual up-down zig-zag fashion.
But that is my opinion, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Hi!
I am giving below the monthly chart for spot Nifty from July 2012 till date. The low was 4720 on 26th Aug 2012, and from there, it had risen to the high of around 9119 on 4th Mar 2015.
On 12th Feb 2016, the spot Nifty had fallen to a low of 6869, whereas the 50% level (in yellow dotted line) is around 6823. What does it mean?
Will the Nifty touch 6823 in the near future or even go marginally below it and then will recover? A Billion Dollar question, especially with the negative sentiments being observed in the world stock markets.
Theoretically, it is also said that a fall of 61.8 % is considered healthy, which probably means that the fall may continue to touch / cross the 61.8 % level , which is around 6280.
But are these two levels of 6820 and 6280 on the Monthly chart for spot Nifty, would have any importance at all?
To understand it, let us see the daily chart for spot Nifty :
We start from the low of around 7724 on 17th Oct 2014, to the high of around 9119 on 4th Mar 2015. You will see that the entire gain has been wiped off and spot Nifty has further fallen to the low of around 6860 on 11th Feb 2016, which is a level at 161.80 % of the above fall.
Theoretically, there should be change in the direction and spot Nifty must start gaining it’s value, which in fact it did marginally on Fri 12th Feb 2016.
So…. What it is going to be like, for the week starting from Mon 15th Feb 2016? Up or Down?
In my opinion, we are at a Cross Roads. The spot Nifty, theoretically, should now gain strength and should move upwards, irrespective of the negativities in the world market.
But what if these negativities in the world market over power the Nifty to make it fall more? Possible, but not essential. Moreover, the whole of market is expecting the Nifty to have a pre-budget rally. Will it be in the next week?
I don’t know. Just think and take proper decisions.
These are my opinions based on my own analysis of the market, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
I am giving below the monthly chart for spot Nifty from July 2012 till date. The low was 4720 on 26th Aug 2012, and from there, it had risen to the high of around 9119 on 4th Mar 2015.
On 12th Feb 2016, the spot Nifty had fallen to a low of 6869, whereas the 50% level (in yellow dotted line) is around 6823. What does it mean?
Will the Nifty touch 6823 in the near future or even go marginally below it and then will recover? A Billion Dollar question, especially with the negative sentiments being observed in the world stock markets.
Theoretically, it is also said that a fall of 61.8 % is considered healthy, which probably means that the fall may continue to touch / cross the 61.8 % level , which is around 6280.
But are these two levels of 6820 and 6280 on the Monthly chart for spot Nifty, would have any importance at all?
To understand it, let us see the daily chart for spot Nifty :
We start from the low of around 7724 on 17th Oct 2014, to the high of around 9119 on 4th Mar 2015. You will see that the entire gain has been wiped off and spot Nifty has further fallen to the low of around 6860 on 11th Feb 2016, which is a level at 161.80 % of the above fall.
Theoretically, there should be change in the direction and spot Nifty must start gaining it’s value, which in fact it did marginally on Fri 12th Feb 2016.
So…. What it is going to be like, for the week starting from Mon 15th Feb 2016? Up or Down?
In my opinion, we are at a Cross Roads. The spot Nifty, theoretically, should now gain strength and should move upwards, irrespective of the negativities in the world market.
But what if these negativities in the world market over power the Nifty to make it fall more? Possible, but not essential. Moreover, the whole of market is expecting the Nifty to have a pre-budget rally. Will it be in the next week?
I don’t know. Just think and take proper decisions.
These are my opinions based on my own analysis of the market, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Last edited:
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