Food for Thought........!
- Thread starter S S
- Start date
Hi!
It is better to check and try to ensure that food does not lead to food poisoning, but sometimes the seasonal changes spoil the intentions.
Likewise is the case for the markets. With the US markets taking a nose dive and yet the US $ becoming strong, has led to un-precedental things.
Usually, when the stock markets are on the rise, the Gold and crude do otherwise. But currently, it is surprising to note that while the stock markets are falling, the Gold is also falling. US$ is becoming strong.
With the Indian Economy getting strengthened, it is becoming one of the lucrative place for investment. It would be NOT wrong, if one expected a better inflow of foreign exchange in the country for the time to come, especially during the current calendar year.
But the US$-INR chart is showing otherwise, and Rupee is expected to fall to it’s earlier all time high above 50. These two things cannot be matched. Which makes it more difficult for one to understand.
Friday 5th Feb 10 was a bad day. But it gives two reference levels. It’s high of around 4827 and it’s low of around 4692. Now we must wait and see, where the market decides to move. In the event the spot Nifty goes to close above 4827, market may turn upwards. But if it closes below 4692, the current downtrend may continue.
For the moment, I am not specifying any targets, unless I am doubly sure. The fall in Gold prices may make the Commodity market lucrative some day in 2010, and possibly many of the traders from the stock markets may get tempted to move to the commodity market.
For the next two weeks is the time for information to get leaked from the govt departments. One can depend on the persons connected with the Finance ministry, to play in the stock markets with the inside information, to make a fast buck.
Although the Rapo and Reverse Rapo rates have been kept unchanged and only the Cash Reserve Ratio is hiked to reduce the liquidity from the market, all the three may once again get tampered sooner than one expects it to happen. In which case, investing in Bank stocks would be one of the wiser thing.
Market also is becoming more and more stock specific, based on the performance of individual companies. The fresh IPOs are getting a cold shoulder from the investors. Pranab has to induce some vigour in the market, but has extremely limited capacity as a Finance Minister, unless PM himself becomes a back-seat driver to drive the economy vehicle safely, possibly with the help of Chiddu.
That is what my opinion is, and I could be wrong.
I would wait for some signals in this regards, and shall write if and when I notice one.
Cheers!
SS
It is better to check and try to ensure that food does not lead to food poisoning, but sometimes the seasonal changes spoil the intentions.
Likewise is the case for the markets. With the US markets taking a nose dive and yet the US $ becoming strong, has led to un-precedental things.
Usually, when the stock markets are on the rise, the Gold and crude do otherwise. But currently, it is surprising to note that while the stock markets are falling, the Gold is also falling. US$ is becoming strong.
With the Indian Economy getting strengthened, it is becoming one of the lucrative place for investment. It would be NOT wrong, if one expected a better inflow of foreign exchange in the country for the time to come, especially during the current calendar year.
But the US$-INR chart is showing otherwise, and Rupee is expected to fall to it’s earlier all time high above 50. These two things cannot be matched. Which makes it more difficult for one to understand.
Friday 5th Feb 10 was a bad day. But it gives two reference levels. It’s high of around 4827 and it’s low of around 4692. Now we must wait and see, where the market decides to move. In the event the spot Nifty goes to close above 4827, market may turn upwards. But if it closes below 4692, the current downtrend may continue.
For the moment, I am not specifying any targets, unless I am doubly sure. The fall in Gold prices may make the Commodity market lucrative some day in 2010, and possibly many of the traders from the stock markets may get tempted to move to the commodity market.
For the next two weeks is the time for information to get leaked from the govt departments. One can depend on the persons connected with the Finance ministry, to play in the stock markets with the inside information, to make a fast buck.
Although the Rapo and Reverse Rapo rates have been kept unchanged and only the Cash Reserve Ratio is hiked to reduce the liquidity from the market, all the three may once again get tampered sooner than one expects it to happen. In which case, investing in Bank stocks would be one of the wiser thing.
Market also is becoming more and more stock specific, based on the performance of individual companies. The fresh IPOs are getting a cold shoulder from the investors. Pranab has to induce some vigour in the market, but has extremely limited capacity as a Finance Minister, unless PM himself becomes a back-seat driver to drive the economy vehicle safely, possibly with the help of Chiddu.
That is what my opinion is, and I could be wrong.
I would wait for some signals in this regards, and shall write if and when I notice one.
Cheers!
SS
Hi!
Let us start with the Monthly chart for Spot Nifty. Candles for last six months appear to be keeping the market sideways and range bound, and the last two months have the markets trending downwards.
Even if the markets continue to remain sideways, the move hereafter should be upwards. In all these six months, markets have closed above 10 Month EMA Red line.
If the Cup & Handle Pattern is to be believed, then the cup formation has taken 13 months. 13 is a Fibonacchi number, and therefore retracing to the top of around 6357 should also take 13 months, of which we are in the sixth month. So, we could expect the top around Aug-Sep 2010.
The Weekly chart for Spot Nifty also has the Cup & Handle formation. After the Cup was completed, every time the market has come down since July 2009, the ‘Low’ has moved higher and higher.
In fact the candles for last two weeks are Green, so the markets shall continue it’s uptrend in waves and sub-waves.
With these considerations, the Daily EOD chart does NOT appear to be bearish.
As per a leading business daily, India's industrial production recorded the highest growth for a single month in December 2009, close to three decades. Manufacturing grew by 18.5% Year on Year, propelled by capital goods 38% YoY, consumer durables 46% YoY and intermediate goods 22% YoY.
Even if one discounts for the inflation rate around 10%, the above figures are in positive territory.
So far, there is no CLEAR signal available from the charts for any indications for the forth coming Union Budget. So, let us wait and watch.
My opinion expressed, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Let us start with the Monthly chart for Spot Nifty. Candles for last six months appear to be keeping the market sideways and range bound, and the last two months have the markets trending downwards.
Even if the markets continue to remain sideways, the move hereafter should be upwards. In all these six months, markets have closed above 10 Month EMA Red line.
If the Cup & Handle Pattern is to be believed, then the cup formation has taken 13 months. 13 is a Fibonacchi number, and therefore retracing to the top of around 6357 should also take 13 months, of which we are in the sixth month. So, we could expect the top around Aug-Sep 2010.
The Weekly chart for Spot Nifty also has the Cup & Handle formation. After the Cup was completed, every time the market has come down since July 2009, the ‘Low’ has moved higher and higher.
In fact the candles for last two weeks are Green, so the markets shall continue it’s uptrend in waves and sub-waves.
With these considerations, the Daily EOD chart does NOT appear to be bearish.
As per a leading business daily, India's industrial production recorded the highest growth for a single month in December 2009, close to three decades. Manufacturing grew by 18.5% Year on Year, propelled by capital goods 38% YoY, consumer durables 46% YoY and intermediate goods 22% YoY.
Even if one discounts for the inflation rate around 10%, the above figures are in positive territory.
So far, there is no CLEAR signal available from the charts for any indications for the forth coming Union Budget. So, let us wait and watch.
My opinion expressed, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Hy buddy
It is good to drink only water for a certain time and then to fill up the whole body and brain with vitamins.
Since a few week I do that daily. I already lost a few kg. During the day only drinking water and coffee
and in the in the late after noon get some food.
SS give my friends only enough to survive, so they can lose some unnecessary thought to make not every thing to complicated. :lol:
Take care
DanPickUp
It is good to drink only water for a certain time and then to fill up the whole body and brain with vitamins.
Since a few week I do that daily. I already lost a few kg. During the day only drinking water and coffee
and in the in the late after noon get some food.SS give my friends only enough to survive, so they can lose some unnecessary thought to make not every thing to complicated. :lol:
Take care
DanPickUp
Dear SS'sir,
Your posts are really refreshing....I am talking of the ones without charts about Society,and the one with charts are a delight as well(thanks to murtaza'bhai for directing me here).
:thumb:
Your posts are really refreshing....I am talking of the ones without charts about Society,and the one with charts are a delight as well(thanks to murtaza'bhai for directing me here).
:thumb:
Hi!
Let us start with the Monthly chart for Spot Nifty. Candles for last six months appear to be keeping the market sideways and range bound, and the last two months have the markets trending downwards.
Even if the markets continue to remain sideways, the move hereafter should be upwards. In all these six months, markets have closed above 10 Month EMA Red line.
If the Cup & Handle Pattern is to be believed, then the cup formation has taken 13 months. 13 is a Fibonacchi number, and therefore retracing to the top of around 6357 should also take 13 months, of which we are in the sixth month. So, we could expect the top around Aug-Sep 2010.
The Weekly chart for Spot Nifty also has the Cup & Handle formation. After the Cup was completed, every time the market has come down since July 2009, the Low has moved higher and higher.
In fact the candles for last two weeks are Green, so the markets shall continue its uptrend in waves and sub-waves.
With these considerations, the Daily EOD chart does NOT appear to be bearish.
As per a leading business daily, India's industrial production recorded the highest growth for a single month in December 2009, close to three decades. Manufacturing grew by 18.5% Year on Year, propelled by capital goods 38% YoY, consumer durables 46% YoY and intermediate goods 22% YoY.
Even if one discounts for the inflation rate around 10%, the above figures are in positive territory.
So far, there is no CLEAR signal available from the charts for any indications for the forth coming Union Budget. So, let us wait and watch.
My opinion expressed, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Let us start with the Monthly chart for Spot Nifty. Candles for last six months appear to be keeping the market sideways and range bound, and the last two months have the markets trending downwards.
Even if the markets continue to remain sideways, the move hereafter should be upwards. In all these six months, markets have closed above 10 Month EMA Red line.
If the Cup & Handle Pattern is to be believed, then the cup formation has taken 13 months. 13 is a Fibonacchi number, and therefore retracing to the top of around 6357 should also take 13 months, of which we are in the sixth month. So, we could expect the top around Aug-Sep 2010.
The Weekly chart for Spot Nifty also has the Cup & Handle formation. After the Cup was completed, every time the market has come down since July 2009, the Low has moved higher and higher.
In fact the candles for last two weeks are Green, so the markets shall continue its uptrend in waves and sub-waves.
With these considerations, the Daily EOD chart does NOT appear to be bearish.
As per a leading business daily, India's industrial production recorded the highest growth for a single month in December 2009, close to three decades. Manufacturing grew by 18.5% Year on Year, propelled by capital goods 38% YoY, consumer durables 46% YoY and intermediate goods 22% YoY.
Even if one discounts for the inflation rate around 10%, the above figures are in positive territory.
So far, there is no CLEAR signal available from the charts for any indications for the forth coming Union Budget. So, let us wait and watch.
My opinion expressed, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Hey guys…. I am sorry.
Sultan, Vjay & AW10. I should have made a mention in my last message about the concern you had shown. The words “Hope All is Well with you” said everything. Thanks guys.
DanPickUp & Scion… Thanks for your kind words.
Let me repeat what I have said earlier in some of my messages-
For remaining in the Stock Markets, my guru is “The Wall” Rahul Dravid, also from Bangalore.
Once at the crease, he hates to get out and hence is called “The Wall”
And while he is there, he punishes the bad balls, while blocking the others tactfully.
In my opinion, that is what is his secret, that has finally made him reach to equal the record of the Great Sir Bradman, in scoring 29 Test Centuries.
While at the stock markets, I do NOT play for maximum gains. It amounts to a play of Sahwag & Yuvraj, who flash their bats against the ball. If it hits ok, they get a four or a six, or else, they get caught out. Playing for Maximum gains always makes one Greedy and Greed leads to Fear when the markets suddenly change their trends and/or directions.
Even if one wishes to better the act, one cannot be Sehwag or Yuvraj.
The stock markets have taught me enough to know, which is the bad ball that should be punished and which is a “Doosra” that should be played tactfully to ensure that one does NOT get out
Wishing everyone Happy Trading-Investing.
Cheers!
SS
Sultan, Vjay & AW10. I should have made a mention in my last message about the concern you had shown. The words “Hope All is Well with you” said everything. Thanks guys.
DanPickUp & Scion… Thanks for your kind words.
Let me repeat what I have said earlier in some of my messages-
For remaining in the Stock Markets, my guru is “The Wall” Rahul Dravid, also from Bangalore.
Once at the crease, he hates to get out and hence is called “The Wall”
And while he is there, he punishes the bad balls, while blocking the others tactfully.
In my opinion, that is what is his secret, that has finally made him reach to equal the record of the Great Sir Bradman, in scoring 29 Test Centuries.
While at the stock markets, I do NOT play for maximum gains. It amounts to a play of Sahwag & Yuvraj, who flash their bats against the ball. If it hits ok, they get a four or a six, or else, they get caught out. Playing for Maximum gains always makes one Greedy and Greed leads to Fear when the markets suddenly change their trends and/or directions.
Even if one wishes to better the act, one cannot be Sehwag or Yuvraj.
The stock markets have taught me enough to know, which is the bad ball that should be punished and which is a “Doosra” that should be played tactfully to ensure that one does NOT get out
Wishing everyone Happy Trading-Investing.
Cheers!
SS
Hi!
So the Union Finance Budget is just round the corner, and everyone is busy speculating what it shall include and what it shall NOT. But the markets too appear totally confused.
Let us consider last 6 trading sessions, four from this week and two of the previous. Nifty values are as follows :
Date Open High Low Close
18-Feb-10 4915.00 4922.05 4873.70 4887.75
19-Feb-10 4887.30 4887.30 4805.55 4844.90
22-Feb-10 4849.35 4912.05 4845.90 4856.40
23-Feb-10 4856.60 4881.10 4833.15 4870.05
24-Feb-10 4869.55 4880.55 4834.65 4858.60
25-Feb-10 4859.00 4880.15 4835.60 4859.75
It seems that the highest high was on Thu 18th Feb, immediately followed by the Lowest Low on Fri 19th Feb, and the last four sessions remained within this limit.
Highest Nifty Open for last four days could not cross the open value of 18th Feb, and the Lowest Nifty Close could not touch the close of 19th Feb 2010.
Markets have remained in the 4805-4922 range.
Evidently, after the budget is presented, if the markets shoot up decisively above the high of around 4922, one could go long keeping 4922 as a stop loss. Likewise, if the markets take a decisive dip below 4805, then one could go short, keeping 4805 as the stop loss.
One word of caution though.
It has been observed in the past, that the market trend after the budget presentation gets reversed within a day or two. So, BE CAREFUL.
That is what I think, but I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
So the Union Finance Budget is just round the corner, and everyone is busy speculating what it shall include and what it shall NOT. But the markets too appear totally confused.
Let us consider last 6 trading sessions, four from this week and two of the previous. Nifty values are as follows :
Date Open High Low Close
18-Feb-10 4915.00 4922.05 4873.70 4887.75
19-Feb-10 4887.30 4887.30 4805.55 4844.90
22-Feb-10 4849.35 4912.05 4845.90 4856.40
23-Feb-10 4856.60 4881.10 4833.15 4870.05
24-Feb-10 4869.55 4880.55 4834.65 4858.60
25-Feb-10 4859.00 4880.15 4835.60 4859.75
It seems that the highest high was on Thu 18th Feb, immediately followed by the Lowest Low on Fri 19th Feb, and the last four sessions remained within this limit.
Highest Nifty Open for last four days could not cross the open value of 18th Feb, and the Lowest Nifty Close could not touch the close of 19th Feb 2010.
Markets have remained in the 4805-4922 range.
Evidently, after the budget is presented, if the markets shoot up decisively above the high of around 4922, one could go long keeping 4922 as a stop loss. Likewise, if the markets take a decisive dip below 4805, then one could go short, keeping 4805 as the stop loss.
One word of caution though.
It has been observed in the past, that the market trend after the budget presentation gets reversed within a day or two. So, BE CAREFUL.
That is what I think, but I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Hi!
The fall from the high of around 5310 on 6th Jan 10 to the low of around 4675 on 8th Feb 10, was retraced to cross the 61.8% level at around 5068. In fact this level gave a good support on Friday 5th March 10.
There are now two possibilities.
1. Markets come down here after, if they cannot sustain remaining above 61.8% level.
2. The 5068 level gives good support to push the markets further up.
On Thursday 4th Mar, Nifty had closed at around 5080, after having tested a low of 5049. The candle has a long lower wick, thereby indicating that the selling pressures could not succeed and the markets recovered.
Simultaneously, the OI for Nifty options in the descending order were for –
5000 PE-4800-PE-5100CE-4900PE-5000CE
The odd man out in these five figures is the 5100 CE.
The 5000PE-4800 PE-4900 PE show a strong support for 5000, which is also given by 5000 CE.
The 5100 CE shows a resistance at 5100. This means that while there is a strong support at 5000, there also is a resistance at 5100, and markets may remain in this channel.
But that was as at the close on Thursday 4th March,
On Friday 5th March, the spot Nifty did go only to the low of around 5068, but crossed the 5100 resistance temporarily to go above 5118, only to come back and close at around 5088.
Now the OI for Nifty Options, at the close of Friday 5th March in the descending order is -
5000 PE-5100 CE- 4800 PE-4700 PE-4900 PE-4500 PE-5200 CE-5000 CE.
Of these 8 figures, 5100 CE and 5200 CE show resistance at 5100 and 5200 respectively. But all the rest appear to give a very strong support at 5000. This is an indication that in such condition, a sudden crash cannot take place. Even the volatility shall remain on lower side.
And like the Spot Nifty, which did cross 5100 on Friday, but then came below it, I expect a similar move on Monday 8th March. But once the Nifty is above 5100, and it gets a stronger support, then I also expect the 5100 PE to increase in size considerably, to make 5100 a strong support, and Nifty, then shall move in the upper channel of 5100-5200.
It would then depend upon the condition around the level 5160 and the market reaction as at that time. If the OI for 5200 CE goes on increasing, it shall lead to a very strong resistance at 5200. But if it does NOT, then probably the markets shall manage to cross 5200 and move up.
That is what my opinion is, and I could be wrong,
Cheers!
SS
The fall from the high of around 5310 on 6th Jan 10 to the low of around 4675 on 8th Feb 10, was retraced to cross the 61.8% level at around 5068. In fact this level gave a good support on Friday 5th March 10.
There are now two possibilities.
1. Markets come down here after, if they cannot sustain remaining above 61.8% level.
2. The 5068 level gives good support to push the markets further up.
On Thursday 4th Mar, Nifty had closed at around 5080, after having tested a low of 5049. The candle has a long lower wick, thereby indicating that the selling pressures could not succeed and the markets recovered.
Simultaneously, the OI for Nifty options in the descending order were for –
5000 PE-4800-PE-5100CE-4900PE-5000CE
The odd man out in these five figures is the 5100 CE.
The 5000PE-4800 PE-4900 PE show a strong support for 5000, which is also given by 5000 CE.
The 5100 CE shows a resistance at 5100. This means that while there is a strong support at 5000, there also is a resistance at 5100, and markets may remain in this channel.
But that was as at the close on Thursday 4th March,
On Friday 5th March, the spot Nifty did go only to the low of around 5068, but crossed the 5100 resistance temporarily to go above 5118, only to come back and close at around 5088.
Now the OI for Nifty Options, at the close of Friday 5th March in the descending order is -
5000 PE-5100 CE- 4800 PE-4700 PE-4900 PE-4500 PE-5200 CE-5000 CE.
Of these 8 figures, 5100 CE and 5200 CE show resistance at 5100 and 5200 respectively. But all the rest appear to give a very strong support at 5000. This is an indication that in such condition, a sudden crash cannot take place. Even the volatility shall remain on lower side.
And like the Spot Nifty, which did cross 5100 on Friday, but then came below it, I expect a similar move on Monday 8th March. But once the Nifty is above 5100, and it gets a stronger support, then I also expect the 5100 PE to increase in size considerably, to make 5100 a strong support, and Nifty, then shall move in the upper channel of 5100-5200.
It would then depend upon the condition around the level 5160 and the market reaction as at that time. If the OI for 5200 CE goes on increasing, it shall lead to a very strong resistance at 5200. But if it does NOT, then probably the markets shall manage to cross 5200 and move up.
That is what my opinion is, and I could be wrong,
Cheers!
SS
I completely agree with you SS.. See the image below for the reference of Nifty Options OI from 4700 to 5400. Looking at these figures i think nifty faces strong support @ 5000 and below that 4800 is the strong support. Major Resistance @ 5100 after that 5200 minor resistance and after that clear run to new high.....
However till the time 5100 is not clear we can see nifty touching 5000-4990 series. Looking to see ping pong nifty between 5000-5100 in next 3-4 days before taking its next journey....
However till the time 5100 is not clear we can see nifty touching 5000-4990 series. Looking to see ping pong nifty between 5000-5100 in next 3-4 days before taking its next journey....
Image :
@SS
I am sorry that I have nothing to offer food for thought in this great thread but I can't resist myself to post Thank you.
Your every post offer me to enhance my learning expriance.
Thank you very much for your great contribution.
@itprodeepak
Thank you for your chart of Option OI with strike. It is realy helped me to understand SS above interpretation.
I am sorry that I have nothing to offer food for thought in this great thread but I can't resist myself to post Thank you.
Your every post offer me to enhance my learning expriance.
Thank you very much for your great contribution.
@itprodeepak
Thank you for your chart of Option OI with strike. It is realy helped me to understand SS above interpretation.
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