Food for Thought........!

[S S]

Hi!

A Comprehensive Course on the Wave Principle is available Free at the following website :

http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/Default.aspx

Just register with your email address and get the benefit.

Cheers & Good luck !

SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

This posting has three parts.

First : In my last posting, on 2nd Dec 09, I have specified a link for free Comprehensive Course on the Wave Principle. This is going to remain available for a limited time. So, interested readers can make use of it over this weekend. Later, the same info shall cost.

Second : The markets :

3rd Dec candle shows a high of 5181, which is more or less in tune with the high of 5181.95 on 20th Oct. On monthly chart, it is like a double top, thereby indicating that the markets shall come down hereafter.

Charts cannot lie, however……!

If the spot Nifty can manage to go above 5181 decisively in the immediate future, then the double top does not remain in existence and hence there shall be no likely threat. But that is a big if.

The correction that took place on Friday 4th Dec due to profit booking as the spot Nifty went to the low of around 5080. In fact this level was tested twice. First in the morning session and there after in the post lunch session. And yet, there was a smart recovery before the markets closed.

The Dow Jones has remained in the Green on 4th Dec, and is less likely to contribute any negativity.

So, going into the new week, there is a strong probability of spot Nifty crossing the 5181 resistance level and go above it. In fact, there also remains a chance of a gap-up opening, if the Asian markets open in green and remain firm before NSE opens on Monday 7th Dec 09.

Some analysts are of the opinion, that the mini correction today may grow in the next week to test 61.8% correction level at around 4950. The probability does exist, but I have my own doubts, and I firmly feel that there shall be a strong effort to breakout above the resistance around 5180 level.

If that happens, then the next target at 161.8% shall be 5580, as could be seen from the charts, but again, not in a straight line, but in sub-waves.

My opinion expressed, and I could be wrong.


Third : I shall be travelling from early next week, and that to, for a week. And for once, I have decided to stay away from the internet, and shall not carry my laptop.

Needless to say, that I shall not be in touch with the markets, and hence shall not be in a position to post any message next weekend.

I request that one of the readers, could possibly help me, by providing proper food for thoughts of other readers when I am away. Thanks.

Cheers!
SS

 

[debdeeps]

From where I can delete this message?

 

[dr_sreenivas]

Last week Markets traded in a tight range between 5050 and 5190. Markets seem to be getting consolidated in this range!
Trade the range with positive bias,expecting breakout above 5190 with a target of 5500[Offcourse, not in a straight line,but in waves] in the days to come,as SS mentioned!
Any decline to 5080 levels,one can Buy with a tight stoploss 5037.

If i am wrong,There is a tight stoploss 5037!
Hence enjoy trading

 

[S S]

Hi!

Last week we saw the Spot Nifty had a high of around 5157 and a low of around 4979, and the week’s close was near the low, almost near the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, there are sell signals, and if we see the weekly chart, we find that the symmetry is building up fine. Although there may be a spike next week that could take the spot Nifty to the lows of 4840 or even 4800, I expect the markets to recover thereafter, and stay in Green for days to come.

If the symmetry continues to hold, then in the next week, all the losses of last week should be covered in the next week and the close should be near the High of the last week.

That would be the time, when the Christmas vacation for schools and colleges shall be on, and many may choose to stay away from the markets to take a vacation.

As a result, the last week of 2009, which is also the settlement week, may remain sideways to give a Doji candle on the charts, but both the open and the close for that week may remain above the close of next week.

The Open Interest for the Nifty Options on Friday 18th shows the diminishing order of

5100 CE-5200 CE-4900 PE-5000 PE-5300 CE-4800 PE- 5000 CE.

This is a bit confusing, and as the next week progresses, I expect the considerable change in 5000 levels for both CE & PE.

I am NOT worried of the Nifty going below 5000, that was supposed to be a strong support. I look at it as an additional opportunity for buying futures as it bottoms out in next two weeks to head and capture the major resistance level around 5181.

This shall be the third attempt of the Spot Nifty to break 5181, and this time it shall have to go above it, as the results for last quarter of 2009 start pouring in.

And during all this time, it will be interesting to watch the US$-INR rates and also the Gold prices.

My opinion and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

The Spot Nifty did close above 5181 on Thursday 24th Dec 09, but the average close from NSE has come below at around 5178. Fine.

The weekly chart shows the next resistance level to be around the channel 5368-5388 and we could possibly see Nifty reaching those levels in Jan 2010 in the rally, generally known as “Pre-Budget Rally”

Therefore, if someone wishes to invest, the next week is the best chance to choose scrips from Midcaps and Large caps. Market is expected to stay sideways in that week. Likewise, the traders could choose options and also the proper strike rates for calls for Jan 2010 Nifty series, and book profits at appropriate times.

There is also a remote chance of markets and Nifty barging ahead to get into the 5368-5388 channel very fast in early Jan 2010. In such an event, the pre-budget and/or post budget rally, which will be seen thereafter, stands the potential of attempting the previous all time high of about 6357. A remote possibility, but one cannot rule that out.

Therefore, we find that inspite of the problems that the country is facing on famine, heavy rains, a cyclone, water shortage, inflation, etc, none of them would have any impact whatsoever on the stock markets.

It is too early to judge the exact effect of the forthcoming budget in Feb 2010. But as the charts progress, we could possibly find the likely impact of the budget by mid-Feb 2010…. hopefully.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

We all get many unwanted mails in our inboxes and I got one recently. It was telling me to be aware of the 30% fall that the markets shall take early this month.

Reason…? Not known. Basis….? Not known.

Let’s just see the weekly chart for Spot Nifty, as on 8th Jan 2010 :

So far, in the recent past, Nifty has been behaving itself in line with the charts. Many times, we get such un-invited advice and we start wondering about the future. The best way is to follow the charts and reason the things out …..logically? May be.

In some of my previous postings, I have talked about few levels for Spot Nifty. 5181 was one such number, which is still important. As of 8th Jan, the 10 DEMA was around 5210, which ensures the strong support at 5181 region. On weekly charts the 10 WEMA is around 5085, but one need NOT worry about it for few simple logical reasons.

The weekly chart shows that the candles for last 3 weeks are Green candles, and the high for the last week being around 5310, whereas the upper Bollinger Band is around 5317.

The week starting Monday 11th Jan 10, in a way, is important because the results for the quarter ending Dec 09 shall start pouring in. Let us consider the likely chances -

1. The trend for the advance tax for the previous two quarters need not change, as there is nothing that has happened otherwise. So, with the trend continuing, the results for the Dec 09 quarter could be expected to support the current uptrend of the market.

2. The first week of Jan 10 has seen good buying from FII, which is likely to continue. And with the quantity of stocks available for trading starts getting reduced due to delivery based purchases, the prices shall be on the increase.

3. The charts do not show any negativity and the high for the next two weeks is likely to cross and go above the upper Bollinger Band. This is when the 10 Weeks EMA shall also shoot to go around/above 5181 region. And in such event, this region shall be so strong, that any fall below it may become questionable, leave aside 30% fall.

In my pervious message, I have already said that –

“There is also a remote chance of markets and Nifty barging ahead to get into the 5368-5388 channel very fast in early Jan 2010. In such an event, the pre-budget and/or post budget rally, which will be seen thereafter, stands the potential of attempting the previous all time high of about 6357. A remote possibility, but one cannot rule that out.”

which still holds.

The above all is my opinion based on my understanding of the charts and also the stock markets, but I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

So no one can be correct even in analysing things, because something could get overlooked. None of us is God and it becomes difficult.even to find, what has been over looked.

The region around 5181, which did act as a very strong resistance, when the markets were trying to break it upwards, broke downwards literally without offering any support whatsoever. And I am unable to reason it out, in spite of having spent a lot of time, breaking my head.

Let us see the Spot Nifty chart as on the close of Friday 22nd Jan 2010.

The chart does show an up-trending trend line, which appears to have held and has given support on Friday 22nd Jan. Logically, it is less likely to try another breakout in the immediate future. But the next week being a Settlement Week, anything could be possible.

However, even as of date, I look at the scenario positively, and I am of the opinion that the markets may either remain sideways or may remain firm in the next week to close the current settlement.

But that is what I think and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

 

[Sultaan]

S S Sir - Update please

 

[VJAY]

Dear SS sir,
Missing your weekly posts.....hope all well with you.......