Food for Thought........!

[Cactus]

first you have to give reasons, as to how and why the Nifty shall go below 2428.... defying the Elliot Wave Theory...? .... as I understand it...!

Sunil,

I was in little hurry in the morning......couldn't answer........

I don't understand E-Wave.........anyway......., have a look at nikkai......
it was trading near 39 K .......if u calcuate 61% at comes to 24000 means it should never go below 15K but now it is trading at 8500.

Another example.........adlabs........few months back it was trading near 1800 now after reducing 61% you find a level of 700 but it is trading at 300.

Few more examples can be traced. Now what happened to fibonnaci/eliot or gann theroies.......?


No matter I don't understand EW/Fib/Gann but what I understand is "When market is driven by news/emotions/manuplations.......it don't respect any support or resitance."

BTw.........every natural number......the the base of fibonnaci......starts and end on zero.

I don't say it will break but ......why it can't go below 2478.......?

Cheers.

 

[Cactus]

Sunil,

Sorry forgot to give the link......... it is here :

http://tudaaldalmainpaatpat.blogspot.com/2008/10/i-return-to-my-1st-post.html


Nothing new.......same I posted in my thread here at traderji also.

I still do NOT see or get the reasoning for the various figures below 3000 mentioned by you in your message here

 

[Cactus]

Oct low( 7782) might not hold........
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/business/19fund.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

 

[S S]

Hi!

I have no idea, whether Oct low shall hold or not, although, as per my initial calculations, the view should have reversed by end Oct 08. One needs o wait and watch.

Inspite of such a bad condition in the US markets, I find that even the Elliot Wave Internaional is staying away from strongly commenting anything in any direction. The articles available on the website are too vague and do not guide anyone to even think to get a proper direction. If that is their condition, what could one say about the rest of us.

Like I said in my message of 18th Oct at 9.49 a.m., one needs to wait till all the markets bottom out and THEN do the post martem of the correction. There is no other go.

The analysis hereafter is just a guess work.... working out for one lower target and when that fails, re-work for yet another target lower than the first.... and keep continuing, as if it is a bottomless pit.


Most important message from the markets is.... please continue as a trader, keeping away the fear and the greed.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

The condition of American Economy is precarious. Sometime ago, when China was going through a similar stage, then, in spite of the very good foreign exchange balance, China was being pressurised for devaluation of it's currency. China turned out to be smarter than was expected.

But now, will the Americans consider devaluation of the US $...?

UnThinkable.......! Crazy…….!

But what if some day it actually happens? Being un-thinkable, no one has ever given a thought about what should be the line of action thereafter.

The World shall be in a total MESS.

We are much better off now.... in spite of the Stock Exchange turmoil all over the world.

Which also is about to end,,,, may be.... we are almost near the bottom, or have managed to come above it.

Time shall tell.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

End of Wishful Thinking!

Earlier, I had been consistantly talking about the Nifty bottom around 3235. Now, if I ignore the charts and still keep harping, that shall be 'The Ego' and usually, the Ego leads to nothing but Losses.

Attached weekly chart for Nifty shows the slopes for all the lines, down and down alone. The Keltner Bands have been well exceeded by the Bollinger bands, which are still in the mood to open up further, there by indicating a continuity in the fall. The bottom appears to be away.

The 10 weeks EMA Red line is sloping downwards and it has just crossed the 200 weeks EMA Green line. Bad.

Bad because the Red line is sloping more than the Green line, and appears to take the markets further down reasonably [though, I do NOT understand how it could be reasonable ]

There is no point in forecasting the new bottom. Let's hope that the bottom is reached this week, so that the markets turn upwards from next week onwards, to celebrate Diwali.

Wishful thinking, though !
Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Obama wins the US Presidency Election

That’s going to be the news for sure, based on following information :

The TRUTH is :

... Each time that the US has the Economic crisis, that the rival party has won the presidency election.

... Currently, almost all the world markets seem to be following US markets.

... Inspite of the reduction of CRR by 2.50% and Cash Credit by 1.0%, no effect has been visualised of the increased liquidity either on Indian Economy or the Indian Stock markets.

... The Indian Stock markets are very much under valued as of date, and still going down by US market effects.


I expect that based on the Presidency election on 4th Nov 2008, the US markets shall starts a strong uptrend well before the results are declared. It could be based on the trends, or even otherwise.

This shall have a gyrating effect on the rest of the world markets, including the Indian markets, which also shall shoot up.

While this shall have no effect on any and every trader, the potential investor needs to think.

Is it possible to guess and catch the exact bottom? Should one wait till the markets completely bottom out and turn upward, and then consider buying?

Possibly so….. but everyone shall think likewise and when everyone jumps in to buy, the prises shall roar.

Is there a risk in buying now, some percentage of stocks [from the total investment amount budgeted] and if so, what is the Risk-Reward ratio likely?

One can THINK and decide for oneself. I just provided the Food for Thinking.

Cheers! Good Luck for a fresh Start of Happy Re-Investing!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

While I had stopped finding the probable bottom for the current down trend, found something, that made me think.

On 14th Jun 2006, the Spot Nifty had reached the low of 2595.65

Does that mean that the target for the current downtrend is around 2600 for the Nifty. See attached MONTHLY Chart for Nifty.

The figure for Sensex works out to be 8799.01 for that day, thereby setting the current Sensex target of 8800?

Appears possible. With both Dow & Nikkei going to 8000+ levels from their original all time high positions, why should Sensex stay behind?

Think!
SS

 

[Czar]

ya then a rally till 12.5K which forms the right monthly shoulder

 

[S S]

ya then a rally till 12.5K which forms the right monthly shoulder

Absolutely