Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Re: Nifty Today's view

I bought nifty at 5714 5 lots and square off 40 Rs up, expecting a resistance at 5763, which did not happen. It went ahead and broke the high of Thursday. So now what!!

As explained in my previous post, there is a resistance at Fibo levels of 5853. So price should rise till that point. But looking at the 30 minutes indicators, I see some downtrend till the 15ema, which stands at 5777. So we should see a bounce back from this level, with strict stop of Fibo level 5763 - 10 points. I am short 10 lots with this expectation.

By weekly indicators, we still see downside. So I am expecting to short near 5853 (Also tenken of weekly) for target of the intersection shown in the chart.

Let's see!

So far, so good! Price went till 5770 and retraced to 5850. I am short 7 lots at an average price of 5830 with a weekly target of weekly 50SMA, 5725.
Looking at daily, it could go till the cloud top, 5895 or 50SMA, 5902.
Let's see!

 

[trade4putuval]

RCOM touched 75K in my profit book this month! Cheers!!
Now need to check if it is a make or a break! Above 117, aim for the stars, 129.
Downside, any target is possible, but I am not sure when to enter. It is wait and watch!!!

Finally RCOM hit 129!!!

 

[bapu4]

Re: RCOM : Analysis

Fibonacci levels for RCOM shows interesting views.

• RCOM made high of 100, fell till fibo levels, and then you know what happened next. (Check brown arrow). But then fibo levels got created after that. Till then we can say previous top got broken.
• Then it came to 78.6%, broke the levels, but managed to close above it. It went closer to yesterday's levels. Tomorrow being expiry, I can see RCOM closing near this level only.
• Now check the blue arrow. The forecasted arrow shows the trend of chikou span of ichimoku system, aiming to hit the price action. If you know, so long as chikou span stays above the price action, it is bullish. If it breaks through the price action, it is bearish. So we need to watch this closely. The day it breaks, the next target is shown by the blue arrow.
• Third, check the RSI, it is already below 50.

Cheers!

Dear Putuval,
RCOM had come below (103) 78.6% fibo level at 100.9 . I thought , this is the end of its bull run . But probably it made a double bottom and bounced back . If i could understand this before hand ,i would have earned good amount . But i couldnt dare to long because it was closed below 78.6% fibo (103) .

Your comments plz !!

Regards,
Vivek

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: RCOM : Analysis

Dear Putuval,
RCOM had come below (103) 78.6% fibo level at 100.9 . I thought , this is the end of its bull run . But probably it made a double bottom and bounced back . If i could understand this before hand ,i would have earned good amount . But i couldnt dare to long because it was closed below 78.6% fibo (103) .

Your comments plz !!

Regards,
Vivek

Yes, there was a risk in that. But then I checked with one of my colleague. We both agree that once the price moved above the Fibo level, we should have gone long!

We seriously missed this ride because the Fibo levels could have been a better stop for the trades taken. Alas, no point crying over spilled milk! We will now have to rely on the Fibo levels again to do the next trade. Maybe tomorrow morning or wait and watch!!!!

 

[bapu4]

Dear Putuval,

1) There seems to be a hammer / abandoned baby or what it is said i dont know , but the candle at the top seems carrying a bearish sentiment, as the candle body is smaller than the upside shadow and hence shows a small reversal possibility !!

2) The top white candle has also left the 3 EMA .

3) It has also closed outside the upper bollinger band (std. dev. 3).

Now looking this scenario, tomorrow RCOM may close in red .

May come upto 119.1 (38% fibo level ) .

Your comments plz !!
http://chartink.com/stocks/RCOM.html
(plz see the following link for chart . the chart is not uploading as my attachment size limit has exceeded the permissible limit)

Regards,
Vivek

 

[a1b1trader]

(plz see the following link for chart . the chart is not uploading as my attachment size limit has exceeded the permissible limit)

Regards,
Vivek

Hi Vivek
Please go through the following post by Timepass for uploading the image

http://www.traderji.com/equities/47979-canteen-741.html#post591768

 

[trade4putuval]

Dear Putuval,

1) There seems to be a hammer / abandoned baby or what it is said i dont know , but the candle at the top seems carrying a bearish sentiment, as the candle body is smaller than the upside shadow and hence shows a small reversal possibility !!

2) The top white candle has also left the 3 EMA .

3) It has also closed outside the upper bollinger band (std. dev. 3).

Now looking this scenario, tomorrow RCOM may close in red .

May come upto 119.1 (38% fibo level ) .

Your comments plz !!
http://chartink.com/stocks/RCOM.html
(plz see the following link for chart . the chart is not uploading as my attachment size limit has exceeded the permissible limit)

Regards,
Vivek

New Fibo Levels drawn after considering the levels where price stopped and rocked. (See brown arrows).

So the 100% Fibo levels could be our stop loss! First target is 3EMA. Take help of other indicators to make an entry!

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Nifty Today's view

Well, Nifty changed its course. It tried to stay above 5763, and seems it does not want to. When it closed, it was 5765, but settlement came to 5760.

Now let's see today's daily chart.

See the brown arrows. It is pointing to three different locations for the following reasons. All these can be stronger cases for being a support to a falling nifty.

• A tight consolidation before it went further higher!
• A previous fall that got arrested at this price. But I wouldn't give importance to this, because there was an even bigger fall after this that cut through this price.
• Backward Cloud bottom that can give a small support. But the cloud is not flat like a step. If the cloud was a step like formation, we can be absolutely sure that this will be a minor reversal.
• Fibo Level of 23.6%.

Based on this finding, I draw the path with red arrows, followed by green arrows. I stopped the green arrow at the cloud bottom, because it is a very long forward cloud step, and a very thick cloud (5850 to 6080). The thicker the cloud, the higher the resistance to price. From this price, follows a red arrow.

Now let us look at the weekly chart.

Don't we see a similarity here? Since this is a weekly chart, we do not expect to see immediate results. Red arrow till cloud top, followed by an entry into the cloud (I see it touching 100EMA, the blue line), reverse to cloud top. And then fall to the new level (double bottom formation in daily).

Coincidentally, the levels of the weekly and daily are matching. But this is for today.


Alternatively, we look at another possibility in daily. If nifty manages to turn around and keeps itself afloat above the Fibo level of 5765, then we target the next Fibo level 5853. So strategy would be to wait till yesterday's high (5793) to be sure that we are not in a false move, and then enter with multiple lots for target of 5853, with strict stoploss of 10 Rs below yesterday's high.

So strategy would be to go short at whatever high you get today with stop loss of 5793, which if hit go long for target of 5853 with stop loss of 5783. Alternatively, if the fall continues, keep accumulating nifty longs at the 50 SMA in weekly (5714) and even lower based on other indicators, if any.

So far, so good! Price went till 5770 and retraced to 5850. I am short 7 lots at an average price of 5830 with a weekly target of weekly 50SMA, 5725.
Looking at daily, it could go till the cloud top, 5895 or 50SMA, 5902.
Let's see!

Here we are at the Fibo level 23.6% in daily, and almost near the cloud top in weekly. So I am long 10 lots @ 5665, target 15ema of 30 mins, 5700. It could be only 20 Rs profit. Next levels can be seen tomorrow!

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Nifty Today's view

Reposting the same post again with slight modification as per current trend. Nifty managed to close above 5653, the Fibo level, everytime it made a new low.

...

Now let's see today's daily chart.

See the brown arrows. It is pointing to three different locations for the following reasons. All these can be stronger cases for being a support to a falling nifty.

• A tight consolidation before it went further higher!
• A previous fall that got arrested at this price. But I wouldn't give importance to this, because there was an even bigger fall after this that cut through this price.
• Backward Cloud bottom that can give a small support. But the cloud is not flat like a step. If the cloud was a step like formation, we can be absolutely sure that this will be a minor reversal.
• Fibo Level of 23.6%.

Based on this finding, I draw the path with red arrows, followed by green arrows. I stopped the green arrow at the cloud bottom, because it is a very long forward cloud step, and a very thick cloud (5850 to 6080). The thicker the cloud, the higher the resistance to price. From this price, follows a red arrow.

Now let us look at the weekly chart.

Don't we see a similarity here? Since this is a weekly chart, we do not expect to see immediate results. Red arrow till cloud top, followed by an entry into the cloud (I see it touching 100EMA, the blue line), reverse to cloud top. And then fall to the new level (double bottom formation in daily).

Coincidentally, the levels of the weekly and daily are matching. But this is for today.
...
...

 

[trade4putuval]

RCOM: 5 minutes

Hi Smart Trade,

I have done some reading of your post, http://www.traderji.com/day-trading/49521-thoughts-day-swing-trading.html.

I have a query to raise on RCOM yesterday's trade with respect to 5 mins TF. Since the above post is already closed, I had sent a private message to you, hoping that you will find this thread and answer my queries. Traders following the above thread, if you know the answers, can also answer or provide a link in the above post which explains the scenario similar to what happened to RCOM yesterday.

Here I go....

Refer the chart of google finance in 5 mins of RCOM.

At the start of the day, there was a big white candle. Somewhere we read/understood/misunderstood that the length of the candle at the beginning of the day decides the trend of the stock. In other words, if a longer candle is formed at the beginning of the day, it means the price is targetted in the direction of the candle, meaning, upward movement for a bullish candle and downward movement for a bearish candle. Is there any such rule?

I had entered short 10 paise short of yesterday's high, but due to the length of this candle, I had to exit at 1 Rs profit. But then it went on to make a low of 114 before recovering to 120 (Respected Fibo level of 114). I would not like to make the same mistake again, hence the query!!!