Posting today's nifty Futures 3 min chart with swings marked.
1) We opened with gap down on bad news and in first 3 bars we made a bottom and a small rally started. This rally we have no idea where it will end...it could be at 8245-55 or 65 or higher.
2) It is my experience that when such gap down happens, the market after a rally goes back to the bottom and most likely breaks the bottom and makes a new bottom. But if the gap down is after sustained and steep fall lasting for 2-3 days or more then there is a chance of V shaped reversal. The downmove had just started on Friday so V shaped reversal on the first bottom was not expected but still we have to guard against that.
3) After the rally, the market broke the red line and that was the first indication that the rally is probably over. So the good place to short was below 8231 and we had a well defined 15 points stoploss at black line shown.
4) By this time the market had distributed for number of bars. If it was to give V shaped reversal, the market would have covered lots of distance in first few bars...that did not happen so V shaped reversal at this point was ruled out.
5) Market broke the low it made in first 3 bars and It was expected that the downmove will accelerate. But market came back above the pivot low it broke...this was certainly a bad news for bears. Bears should have taken some profits at round figure of 8200 and then balance short position should get covered at any of the blue dotted lines marked.
While shorting, our attempt should be to catch it as high as possible but after it turned down with clearly defined stops.
Smart_trade