Challenge of Trading crudeM with 4k for 30 trading days!!

[vijkris]

Vijay,
For sake of your own good and for people who are watching this thread - can you perform a second round of this challenge? I only can request as it is your money. All I say, do this:

1. Follow same Tukka trading, never bother for any strategy
   
2. Follow same SL and Target
   
   [*]Only thing you have to be consistent - only long, when I am trading only longs (positional or intra) , only short when I am trading only short. I will not tell you entry / exit points, its your ' Tukka' as you said.

On which direction I am trading, it is there on my MCX trade and it does not change overnight as I generally post on possible reversal points. And my trade direction does not change for weeks.

But as it is your money, I only can request.

Or even simpler - Just do this, keep 4X STI (supertrend indicator)

1. If your trading TF is 3 mins, refer STI of 15 mins (approx)
2. If your trading TF is 15 mins, refer STI of 60 mins
3. If your trading TF is 1 hour, refer STI of 4 hours and so on

You trade direction will be the direction of the higher degree STI. And entry /exit - as per same (yes keep it same as challenge 1) Tukka. Avoid the Contra totally.

Do let us know the result after 30 days.

Which thread to follow.. Comedy thread or Crudeoil thread ?

 

[Satya.]

Instead of STI, i used vwap to determine the direction, above vwap only long, below vwap only short.. that was the plan which didn materialise anyway.. :lol::lol:

hw mch iz d win ret wen u tuk vwap bsed trds?
i dunno pratapvb's whle vwap thory,bt vwap=atp
i tuk atp bsed trds n blw 5k 4 tyms cuz it has mny whips

 

[wickedmaverick]

Vijay,
For sake of your own good and for people who are watching this thread - can you perform a second round of this challenge? I only can request as it is your money. All I say, do this:

1. Follow same Tukka trading, never bother for any strategy
   
2. Follow same SL and Target
   
3. Only thing you have to be consistent - only long, when I am trading only longs (positional or intra) , only short when I am trading only short. I will not tell you entry / exit points, its your ' Tukka' as you said.

On which direction I am trading, it is there on my MCX trade and it does not change overnight as I generally post on possible reversal points. And my trade direction does not change for weeks.

But as it is your money, I only can request.

Or even simpler - Just do this, keep 4X STI (supertrend indicator)

1. If your trading TF is 3 mins, refer STI of 15 mins (approx)
2. If your trading TF is 15 mins, refer STI of 60 mins
3. If your trading TF is 1 hour, refer STI of 4 hours and so on

You trade direction will be the direction of the higher degree STI. And entry /exit - as per same (yes keep it same as challenge 1) Tukka. Avoid the Contra totally.

Do let us know the result after 30 days.

Tunaji

I'll try this for next 30 days.
My starting capital is 14k.. only crudemini, will follow higher 4x STI, no contra, tf 30 mins, only positional

Maverick

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

 

[Tuna]

Vijay,
(Caution Long post ahead)

I have no clue the way you are trading. Going purely my the trade stat you shared, I posted my view on my previous post on this thread.

Typically, what I am saying is very basic - However, I bet, it takes a decade of trading for most of us to realise that in our real trade.

• A win rate > 50%
  
• A RR > 1 (1.5 is considered pretty good for intra)

As per last year data:

Now my highest winning streak on Nifty Fut was somewhere around 28 I guess (intra), on crude it was around 14.

Losing streak on NF was 7, Crude it was 4 (again on Intra).

My effective RR on Crude (Intra) - 2.7 approx (due to multilot + trail + part booking)

Now before talking about crude, lets speak about trading - very basic things:

What we are trying in trading?

We are betting on random lines (based on some logic, which we call our strategy) and expecting it to move in our direction. If it does, we make money.


Why do we need a strategy?
Because we are logic driven human being. The problem is market is not. It does not (and need not) follow logic of my or yours trading strategy. It is a pure game of probability.

So, how we win?

Good question. We can not win - yeah, you read me right. We can not win a game of probabily unless we rig it in our favour.


How?

First is RR (Risk / Reward) - we need to win more points when we win, compared to the points we lose when we lose a trade. Suppose your RR = 3, essentially, being only time right out of 3 time actually still ok.

Second is identify the wave?

No I am not talking about EW here. Simplay plain the daily tick wave. Is there a wave (clear trend) - yes? Good.

Third, the TF?

This is where most of us mess up. 1 min TF is good, but that is F1 race. 3 min is balanced. The issue is, during intra, it is easy for market manipulator to let the market move in opposite direction of a trend for lower TF with much more ease compared (the Money X Vol) doing so in a higher TF (1 hours, 1 day).

A simple EMA crossover can make one profitable, only thing - you skip the trade against the daily tick trend.

Most of us fall for the frequency of trading - 'oh no trade today, let's do something different'. Yeah, even I was there (once upon a time). The point is - the objective is not more frequent trading, but more frequent win



Now have a look at this chart of crude - a simple logic, on day 2 you see a trend on daily tick, if you just follow a simple strategy - Sell on break of VWAP (or near DH or PDH) and hold for sometime - what is your probability of winning the trades? higher, right?

The issue is, we focus on the ripples (1min,15mins ) - not on the larger wave. This is a fallacy of intraday - and the solution is also there on the big picture.




The Physics of wave movement is : A wave cannot move down unless higher number of the candles of the wave can close below the previous close - that is in a downtrend of 20 sessions, more than 15 sessions have to be closing in red - so why do not use this nature provided win-rate (15/20 = 75%) in your favour.

Same applies for a Bullish wave as well.

There is another factor (Gap) - which is used by market mover, not to give you chance in intra, unless you stay invested. As an the intra candle could be (DH = DO) but Gap let the wave move higher (that's why I preffer positional, as I want both = Gap + Trending candles)

But still, with this exception - limiting one with direction of trend, is way better option.

What if it is not trending ? Find another one (zinc, Silver etc), or wait for few days.

So, if you want to rig the game - rig it with the cheat code of trend. Trust me, all trading system will start yielding if you only add this filter.

 

[Tuna]

Which thread to follow.. Comedy thread or Crudeoil thread ?

Commedy. Or the daily candle trend as visible on chart.

 

[Tuna]

Ideal trade frequency if plan followed 100% means, max 25 trades per week.

but as i was not consistent, my risk management rules stops me from trading the entire week, if I cross certain limit of sl hits and non planned trades...
I then go back to the drawing board to find out the culprit.. is it the method,or me... 100% of the time, method is innocent and I am the culprit.. :annoyed:

Increase the TF , decrease the frequency. 25 trades per week. Phew !! That's like my monthly counter.

No trading system (even Tukka) can register these many winning situations every week, consistently.

Ideally, 3 trades a day is enough (hold and trail). one after 12 pm, another in the window of 4-6 pm , rest (if needed) till 10:30 pm. I don't take more than 2 any given day, unless very great opportunity comes to me.

 

[Satya.]

wht iz dat charting sftwar Tuna?

 

[Tuna]

wht iz dat charting sftwar Tuna?

Zerodha Kite, Browser based chart.

 

[Tuna]

Chalo guys, goodnight, Sucking Monday tomorrow. See you on the field. Good Night

 

[Tuna]

Tunaji

I'll try this for next 30 days.
My starting capital is 14k.. only crudemini, will follow higher 4x STI, no contra, tf 30 mins, only positional

Maverick

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

Sure, limit ur Risk (the SL). Don't blow it with newly found confidence
Good Luck !!