A view on commodities

[DSM]

Hi Sangram,

No sir please - I am another trader just like you. Just saw your post now, but TT is off at the moment for maintenance. Will check the chart tomorrow and post my views.

Dsm sir,
silver 16.52 acting as strong resistance & also 61.8% retracements. Is it a good candidate to play positional short.

Just wanted ur fundamental views
thanks

 

[Aman1]

CREDIT SUISSE: 'We Are Bearish Gold' - MYLES UDLAND

http://www.businessinsider.in/CREDIT-SUISSE-We-Are-Bearish-Gold/articleshow/45185676.cms

Credit Suisse is newly out with a huge report On its outlook for 2015, and among its 10 best trade ideas for next year: short gold. The firm's technical analysis team puts a price target of $950 on the precious metal for the end of next year, and Credit Suisse's David Sneddon says that from a technical analysis standpoint, and his team that gold's recent break below $1,180 confirmed a bearish "triangle" continuation pattern.

The firm's quick rationale: "Gold remains very expensive relative to historical norms, with carrying costs becoming more penal as US interest rates begin to rise."And continued strength in the US dollar should also keep gold under pressure, the firm writes. Credit Suisse, elsewhere in its research report, also argues that equities have become a hedge against inflation, a role that was typically assigned to commodities and particularly gold.

Amid the recent decline in gold, Credit Suisse isn't the first research firm to say gold could be in trouble. Back in early October, analysts at Ned Davis Research said that, amid a declining "supercycle" for gold, the precious metal could be headed to $660.

A look at the long-term chart for gold and you can see that it's been an ugly couple of years. And while gold rebounded a bit late last week, the longer-term outlook for gold is less than, well, you know.


Gold 11.17

Here is elliottwave target for gold an up wave and then down. This is weekly chart so it may take long time to reach downside target

 

[DSM]

Thanks Aman. It is an interesting chart. Fundamentally, in view of expected rise in interest rates by the Fed., and the resulting stronger dollar, gold seems bearish longterm. Bulls will look at the peak price as reference to buy, and Bears will look at the lows to support their own conclusion. What both miss is black swan events (unaccounted for) which can make one side to run to cover, and the other to look like wise guys. Let's see what the future unfolds.

Here is elliottwave target for gold an up wave and then down. This is weekly chart so it may take long time to reach downside target

 

[DSM]

Sangram, Our trades should be in line with the larger trend. And within a range (sideways or consolidation - buying support/selling resistance. For Silver within range, SL for short will be high of the bar+200 points, support, low of the bar-200 points) Above/Below this level, we can say the trend is resumed, or reversed. Posting three charts of Silver Weekly, Daily and Intraday for perspective.

Dsm sir,
silver 16.52 acting as strong resistance & also 61.8% retracements. Is it a good candidate to play positional short.

Just wanted ur fundamental views
thanks

 

[Catch22]

(26Nov2014 22:31:16) : Natural Gas Inventory Update - U.S commercial N.Gas inventories decreased by 162 BCF from the previous week. (Forecast - 145) (Previous - 17 B)

 

[Catch22]

(27Nov2014 20:56:01) : OPEC Meeting update: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided not to cut output at the conclusion of its highly-anticipated meeting.

source- brokers' portal

 

[sangram1705]

dear all senior traders,
kindly advice what should we do (since i am in practice mode & gradually testing what i am learning, i am still trading single lot silver micro)
thanks

 

[sangram1705]

AGAIN I HAVE TAKEN 1LOT LONG @ 36700 (SILVER MICRO).
PLANNING TO EXIT AT 37000 ( JUST FOR TRIAL)

 

[sangram1705]

(why i took this trade)
the above entry is bof & by now the bears are in deep pain with all sls being trigerred across all time frame

 

[DSM]

Hi Sangram,

Not traded today as was caught up with other stuff. I see you have got some good entries.... Re. exits, it should be as per your system/risk/money management. Every trader will have different ideas on how to trade. My 2C.

(why i took this trade)
the above entry is bof & by now the bears are in deep pain with all sls being trigerred across all time frame