A tool for Fundamental Analysis

[yadav_amit1983]

hey guys,

I am sorry to interrupt you all but will any1 of you would kindly tell me how and where from could i learn to understand these fundamental analysis excel files as soon as possible. Any guidance will be deeply appreciated.



Thank you all,

With warm regards
Amit

 

[gehlot_ms]

How can get daily open interest data .

 

[GamePlayer]

This one is a classic case

Some one recommended Castrol India to me and I put it through the same test the results are very clear and obvious. it clearly brings out the company as a stagnant and there is absolutely no growth that had happened with this company in the last 7-8 years. I could not find any reason for any growth in the company

The stock seems to be active and have gone from 220 to 280 in a month i could not find any reason for it except that I saw a add for the Castrol in association with the movie "tara rum pum" or is there something truly happening with this company??


Note : I have used this tool on many companies and it gives a justification for the current market price, as for the 10 year projection of the model ..

Hi,
Thank you. Great work.

 

[dinesh26]

hi suresh. I found a site where all fundamental datas for 5years and yearly high and low price for 9years are available. Way2wealth.com here is the link
http://www.way2wealth.com/CompanyIn...ame=KS+Oils+Ltd.&Ticker=KS+Oils&MajorSector=1
I think their datas are authentic and useful.

 

[booze007]

hey guys . i just read all your posts from the beginning .it was truly intresting like reading somebody diary but only without any climax .this method was spot on .i really want to know if this method and the datasheet worked ? i been trying to back check for all the charts you all posted .save me from the misery and let me know what happend ..besides im software engr by profession i can help u guys automate this .thank you for precious inputs everybody .thanks

 

[sureshk123]

Its April 2007 started this post and its more then 2 years so its time to review the tool and see if worked

The first company analyzed was Castrol India the statistics are
Price may 2007 Rs.280
Price Oct 2009 Rs.560
Gain % 100.00%
2 year low Rs.241

I believed that the company is going no where but contrarily the stock price never dropped much and but gave 100 % gain in the two year period. The tool was not able to show this and never bought this stock

The second company was Merck India

Price May 2007 Rs.340
Price Oct 2009 Rs.550
gain % 61.76%
2 year low Rs.280

The Price of Merck again never dropped much and has given a 60 % return.
I brought this stocks in tow lots with a average price of Rs.360.000 with 50 % return and also received dividend of 8 % during the time

The third company Automotive Axels
Price May 2007 Rs.560
Price Oct 2009 Rs.302
gain % - 46%
2 year low Rs.90

Automotive axels turned out to be a very volatile stock my average buying price for this stock was 328.000 and so has given a negative return of 7 % received dividend of 3 % during the time

The forth one was Rane Engine valves, the stock has gone through spilt and amalgamation so its difficult to analyze price On a small investment I made its -20 % (minus ) received dividend of 4.5 % during the time

One more stock which I bought was Wyeth Ltd the average purchase price was Rs.465.00 and this stock never dropped in price much and is currently at 60 % profit, also received dividend of 13 % during the time

One more stock which I did not discuss in the forum because it being a commodity stock was Andhra sugar on which is currently at 37 % positive also received dividend of 11% during the time

The results were very mixed while two auto stocks proved to be volatile and gave negative returns the two pharma stock never dropped much and gave reasonable return. During the interim I was buying index stocks via sip and got a much better 35 % return!

 

[booze007]

so the excel sheet worked huh ? gr8.. awesome but how do i find the targt for a particular year i n between . all the excel have 10yr estimates .

 

[fundamentalvalue]

The biggest caveat in using this is:
*company didn't change its leverage.*

What do I mean?
At the end of day, valuation measures how much excess return company makes over cost of capital. And for me its very easy to bump up ROE by taking on more leverage, but that is not good quality ROE, as my cost of equity also increases.

So, I think on the surface this looks very good and may work for companies with stable leverage, but one must keep this point in the back drop.

If you use this method to value banks 5 years from today their leverage will be much different that exists today and that has direct bearing on excess returns.
Same hold for real estate cos like DLF who today have high leverage copared to historically....

Hi

I have attached a fundamental anlyais tool and have compleated a sample analysis for ABB. Hope you will find the tool intresting and useful

Please help in validating the results for one and all


regards
Suresh

 

[naharchetan]

hi if stock a has pe of 3 and stock b has pe of 4; in financial terms which stock's PE is higher a or b

I always thought the higher the number the higher the PE but the below phrase in a book confused me

A 14-year study of stocks
between 1957 and 1971, testing the efficient market hypothesis, revealed that
with consistency, lower-PE stocks out-performed higher-PE stocks. The study
included all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Results
showed an average annual rate of return in six groupings:
6lowest PE 16.3%
5 13.6%
4 11.7%
3 9.3%
2 9.5%
1highest PE 9.3%

Putting these results another way, if an investor had placed $1 million in the
lowest PE stock group at the beginning of the period, it would have grown to
$8,282,000. The same amount invested in the highest-PE group would have
grown to only $3,473,000

pl can you advise?

thanks

chetan

 

[mohnnn]

Lower PE may give better valuation of the stock.So the lower PE is considered a better stock to invest.

But PE is not the ONLY indicator to buy a stock.PE is just the tip of the ice berg.

Put some thought when you buy a stock, you should not just look at the numbers. Lower the PE the better they say .. how about negative PE ?

How about PE= 0 !!