Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove reliably?

[techtrader2]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

I think Demark Sequential is best indicator for market exhaustion...ST showed me this 2 years ago...and it amazes me...on daily gives 2-3 signals a year...but awesome...does not pick all tops and bottoms...but has a good strike rate of 70% and amazing RR

possible to do it on 60 min tf also...but i have not checked that in detail

 

[Smart_trade]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

hi
friends
Two questions- the puzzles of traders are here

A)Which combination of indicators helps detect an impending upmove or downmove in price reliably?

B)INDICATE A day before a move occurs


personally I would exclude RSI,psar, stochastics, CCI

Why?Becoz when you start with a confusing ambiguous tool,you tend to go in the wrong track from the beginning. Ask yourself-is this necessary?

Stochastics would give more false sell signals in a rising uptrend thus kicking the trader out of market early.
I have seen guys loving stochastics blow the trading accounts.

Psar uses too much of risk,not acceptable to good traders.
RSI- RSI(2) HAS BEEN a disaster for many guys(trade minor reversals in a long primary trend-miss main trend but catch it small tail or insignificant bits n pieces now n then. RSI may be somewhat ok when you try to read price patterns not on price chart but on RSI chart.It needs lot of study.
CCI -It seems to work in a different route that doesnt fit my natural thinking.
CCI trendline breaks on higher timeframes looks ok but doesnt help in live trading times.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE these lines are there only fail very often and get broken. They told Nifty will reverse as it hits strong resistance but it is seen next monday that NIFTY breaks the barrier pushing up 80 or 90 points.
What the point is
when you base your decisions of trading on a fickle wavering unreliable thing,you are choosing failure as first option.

Let us see some expert can disprove the above things with predictive advance evidence.
This means one can post the chart and point on friday for what he is sure that would likely occur on following monday.
Looks like hard nut?
not when you have a dependable combination of indicators.

ford
QUOTE
IN NSE OVER 20 LAKH GUYS TRADE AND AMONG THESE OVER 90% GUYS USE SAME COMMON INDICATORS CHARTS THAT SINK THEM AS THEIR THINKING DECISION MAKING PERSPECTIVE HAS BASIS IN THE CHART THEY KEEP LOOKING AT. AND PITY IN THE CITY IS OVER 90% LOOSE THE GAME DOING THINGS THAT ARE DELIBERATELY FORCING ODDS AGAINST THEMSELVES.


please dont mistake my intention-the noble motive is just to provoke thinking beyond the superficial-obviously visible things.

The post presupposes that traders loose because they are unable to predict the reversals, which is not correct in my view. Traders loose due to many reasons, not having a stoploss, not getting out when market is telling us to do so, averaging a loosing position etc etc. Any trader can honestly remember our large loss and ask a question to himself...was the loss because I could not predict the reversal or was it due to something else . The answer for me atleast is it was due to something else.

For making money in the market predicting a reversal is not required.

There are many tell-a tale signals that the market gives before reversing. Some of the signs are as under ::

1) Market starts printing small range bars and these bars overlap each other indicating that aggressive selling /buying is over.

2) How market behaves on a good/bad news gives a clue. It happened recently, all world markets were down, we opened with a gap abut recovered in the first bar itself, meaning market wants to go up and downmove has lost its strength.

3) There are methods which are trend anticipatory such as DeMark Sequential and Combo but the trouble is they dont catch all the reversals.

4) During the market time many times we can feel that market inspite of efforts of bulls/bears looks "tired" and refuses to go in the desired direction...giving us a clue that this market is poised for reversal.

5) If the market is in downtrend, and once it starts trading above the last bottom, it has good chances of reversal.

6) There are some statistical levels where market reverses. For example market will find very difficult to sustain 2 Standard Deviations above/below its VWAP . Over 80 % time it reverses there.

Inspite of all the above, we can never predict reversal with 100 % certainty though we can definately sense that we are about the reverse any time. But even if we get into the position after the reversal , good money can be made.

Smart_trade

 

[DSM]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

Smart_Trade, Your point 6 is interesting. Have not thought about it before.

1. Can you please elobrate more on this.?
2. I suppose 2 SD can be seen on charts using BB (Don't use it much). Is that right.?
3. Is there any other tool to find 2 SD?

Thanks.

6) There are some statistical levels where market reverses. For example market will find very difficult to sustain 2 Standard Deviations above/below its VWAP . Over 80 % time it reverses there.

Inspite of all the above, we can never predict reversal with 100 % certainty though we can definately sense that we are about the reverse any time. But even if we get into the position after the reversal , good money can be made.

Smart_trade

 

[MANISH_DAMANI]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

The post presupposes that traders loose because they are unable to predict the reversals, which is not correct in my view. Traders loose due to many reasons, not having a stoploss, not getting out when market is telling us to do so, averaging a loosing position etc etc. Any trader can honestly remember our large loss and ask a question to himself...was the loss because I could not predict the reversal or was it due to something else . The answer for me atleast is it was due to something else.

For making money in the market predicting a reversal is not required.

There are many tell-a tale signals that the market gives before reversing. Some of the signs are as under ::

1) Market starts printing small range bars and these bars overlap each other indicating that aggressive selling /buying is over.

2) How market behaves on a good/bad news gives a clue. It happened recently, all world markets were down, we opened with a gap abut recovered in the first bar itself, meaning market wants to go up and downmove has lost its strength.

3) There are methods which are trend anticipatory such as DeMark Sequential and Combo but the trouble is they dont catch all the reversals.

4) During the market time many times we can feel that market inspite of efforts of bulls/bears looks "tired" and refuses to go in the desired direction...giving us a clue that this market is poised for reversal.

5) If the market is in downtrend, and once it starts trading above the last bottom, it has good chances of reversal.

6) There are some statistical levels where market reverses. For example market will find very difficult to sustain 2 Standard Deviations above/below its VWAP . Over 80 % time it reverses there.

Inspite of all the above, we can never predict reversal with 100 % certainty though we can definately sense that we are about the reverse any time. But even if we get into the position after the reversal , good money can be made.

Smart_trade

very nice explanation and a person only having dedicated trading knowledge can speak like this. And these are the things newbies are not aware and burn their hands. For understanding this part one have to experience market. :thumb:

 

[ford7k]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

hi
thanks.
I have already tried and fibonacci by itself is not ok not enough.

second thing
The point of the post was NOT REVERSALS-BUT FOCUS ON & try to avoid using unreliable -crowd common indicators or charts using same.When you started with stochastics as your primary basis- -you started on a wrong foot. YOU NEED A RIGHT COMBINATION OF NON COLLINEAR INDICATORS TO HELP YOU CRUISE ON RIGHT COURSE.

Very nice initiative , very hard to reply but Fibonacci can be one option though not alone

 

[DanPickUp]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

Smart_Trade, Your point 6 is interesting. Have not thought about it before.

1. Can you please elobrate more on this.?
2. I suppose 2 SD can be seen on charts using BB (Don't use it much). Is that right.?
3. Is there any other tool to find 2 SD?

Thanks.

@DSM

In Metastock software STDV is integrated and in many more advanced trading platforms. If you want to know more about STDV, then go for Don Fishback. He was the one which made that public. For a course of his at the time he made it public you had to pay USD 2500.-- You then have been told and shown a trade with options which made 5 cents profit. :lol: Most people not even understood that after listening to him for two days, as this was some thing very out of the box at those times.

But still, what ST told: Inspite of all the above, we can never predict reversal with 100 % certainty though we can definitely sense that we are about the reverse any time. But even if we get into the position after the reversal , good money can be made. that is the way it is. All that discussion about any perfect system in side way markets or break out systems are not of much help, as there is non such system, only strategies which can handle such situations.

Good trading / DanPickUp

 

[Mukunth]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

I was using CCI,ADX and RSI indicators but this method did not suite me, so currently trying to figure out a simple method with just a very basic indicator like SMA at max. I have seen my cousin trading just with camrilla pivots, since i watched him do successful trading with just pivot points, I got interested in learning and designing a new system that just works out simply, without much of technical indicators.

 

[vijay_gupta1]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

Adx and psar combination is best trading setup..when both indicator gives any buy or sell signal simantenously then blindly go for that trend..you will 100% earn..
Best of luck

 

[MANISH_DAMANI]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

Adx and psar combination is best trading setup..when both indicator gives any buy or sell signal simantenously then blindly go for that trend..you will 100% earn..
Best of luck

Sir currently some one else in commo also guaranteed on same system. His 20% ROI of this month in doubt and yet in RED. :thumb:

 

[ford7k]

Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

here is a start
a starting point.
just need fine tuning for sar adx lovers
ford

_SECTION_BEGIN("Price");
GraphXSpace=10;
SetChartOptions(0,chartShowArrows|chartShowDates);
_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}} - {{INTERVAL}} {{DATE}} Open %g, Hi %g, Lo %g, Close %g (%.1f%%) {{VALUES}}", O, H, L, C, SelectedValue( ROC( C, 1 ) ) ));
Plot( C, "Close", ParamColor("Color", colorBlack ), styleNoTitle | ParamStyle("Style") | GetPriceStyle() ); 
_SECTION_END();

_SECTION_BEGIN("SAR");
acc = Param("Acceleration", 0.02, 0, 1, 0.001 );
accm = Param("Max. acceleration", 0.2, 0, 1, 0.001 );
PSARCOL =IIf(C>SAR(0.02,0.2),colorBlue,IIf(C<SAR(0.02,0.2),colorRed,colorGrey50));
Plot( SAR( acc, accm ), _DEFAULT_NAME(), PSARCOL, ParamStyle("Style", styleDots | styleNoLine, maskDefault | styleDots | styleNoLine ) );
_SECTION_END();

uptrend=PDI(10)>MDI(10) AND C>SAR(0.02,0.2);
downtrend=MDI(10)>PDI(10) AND C<SAR(0.02,0.2);
Plot( 1.5, /* defines the height of the ribbon in percent of pane width */"ribbon",
IIf( uptrend, colorGreen, IIf( downtrend, colorRed, 0 )), /* choose color */
styleOwnScale|styleArea|styleNoLabel, -0.5, 100 );