Warning Signs

[uasish]

1)There is a difference in Cross Currency Swap Ratio & Foreign Exchange Swap Ratio ;
2)Between $ & Yen a Historical Risk Premium is 5% ;
3)The 'Efficient Mkt' is yet to catch up ;
4)An arbitraging oppurtunity in Currency Desk of Banks;
Off hand i cant pin point several other factors which effects FLOW.
Hence there is a possibility we may be generalizing the thing a little bit.

 

[aca_trader]

I am least bothered as a Trader ,any Buy/Sell signal when given by my s/w i will do accordingly.

My trading experience says ,price oscillates in all Time frames,(it is for us to select the Time frame as per our Psyche & Comfort levels),in that Time frame a trader reads the sentiments & emotions of the individuals/institution trading in that time frame,which infact is reflected in a collective form as Volume & Price where Time dimension reflects that Sentiment.

So nothing to worry ,we will read the sentiment in our Time frame & act accordingly on Mkt ,rather if we cant read the chart then it is our inability,any change of sentiment has to have a foot print on the chart,so no assumption & pre-concieved notion.
Asish

And this is how we "Idiots" (As CV does concur) do find it.

 

[uasish]

Bingo Ashish is back in form.

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Yeah, you're right; the bear mode (& what's worse it might be a long-drawn 'structural' one) that the dollar seems to have entered into is the only real threat. Most central banks will be caught between the devil & the deep sea - inflation on one hand (worsened by oil prices) & currency appreciation on the other (& most elected govts would sacrifice the currency on the altar of inflation to keep their 'aam-admi's happy)

Regards,
Kalyan.

i also cant remember the last time ( apart from this year) when the nifty futures was at a discount in a rising market indicating significant shorts in the system . Infact these shorts are helping nifty to climb up whenever there is a intra-day fall . In a way short positions helps nifty recover fast as people are busy covering shots to minimize losses.
Thats why i hate this popular media term "profit booking" instead it should be "long unwinding" . Whenever there is a fall you will see media using this term a lot as though every one in this market are holding long positions and making money .

 

[aca_trader]

Bingo Ashish is back in form.

I hope to maintain it this time.

 

[uasish]

Yeah, you're right; the bear mode (& what's worse it might be a long-drawn 'structural' one) that the dollar seems to have entered into is the only real threat. Most central banks will be caught between the devil & the deep sea - inflation on one hand (worsened by oil prices) & currency appreciation on the other (& most elected govts would sacrifice the currency on the altar of inflation to keep their 'aam-admi's happy)

Regards,
Kalyan.

Totaly agreed ,can even prompt with the example of How the US Insurance Firms where bailed out (when Mortgage Funds pressed the panic button) by the Big Re-Insuarer's of London,but chart like Ashish's are our Guide.

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Hi friends,

Thanks for the nice posts on this topic. BTW, for those who might have missed, take a look at my post on FII/MF investment comparison study, which I published last week.

Tnx all,

ss

i think some americans have read this thread yesterday ...

 

[uasish]

The only thing changed for my Trading Plan to day is :=
Kelly's MM
The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W - (1-W)/R where:

W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system.
R = Historical Average Win/Loss ratio.
Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade

To-day my W would be 50 instead of 85 for Longs in Fut (if any )
And for Cash 60 for all Longs.

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

the equation wil change when yen starts depreciating again and yes nifty is yet to break 22.01 ( i might take some time )...

FYI

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d12&w=1&t=l&a=0

 

[uasish]

rajaram.dilipkumar,
Do you have any position or intend to take one.Plz dont misunderstand me ,as from your earlier post it is evident you are more of an academician.
These effects in better understanding the Mkt.
At least there is 1 guy in this Forum for him Nifty should Crack.The poor fellow is obstinately holding a Short since 4350,i think God read his mind ,what do you say.
Asish