Tuna's Crude Recordbook

[Tuna]

What was your ISL ?

3475, did not trail

 

[Tuna]

Not sure how will it end tonight, but I am not having anymore faith on Longs.

 

[dreammerchant]

+22 on long

When the data is extremely negative, what makes u to go long Tuna? I was short and lost 15 pts... How to tackle this kinda situations

DM

 

[Tuna]

Well, I did not notice the negative news at all And my long term view is bearish only. So mostly you will see more frequent shorts from my side in future. But there are exceptions like today - explanation:

Imagine - you have a floor made of uneven tiles and rocks and obstacles. You pour a mug of water from one corner of the floor. Now, regardless what you want, the water will flow the path of least resistance.

On Market, the Price always follows the path of least resistance. So there will be times when it will make short-term move against higher degree trend as well (and our bias) like today

You got 2 options -

1. stay aside (don't be a resistance or short to make loss) and let it flow till it loses out steam and short at that point (to go with higher degree trend)

2. Follow the price and encash it.

The issue here - you need to be sure this is not a fake. What I did here:

I generally look at the length of the BO (breakout candle), The body have to >= 50% of the total length approx to show the strength - and I actually waited for the ST flip to happen and the price to close above the 100 EMA (yellow).

Booked on the first sign of trend exhaustion (look at the double top on the RSI of the OBV (blue))

 

[dreammerchant]

Well, I did not notice the negative news at all And my long term view is bearish only. So mostly you will see more frequent shorts from my side in future. But there are exceptions like today - explanation:

Imagine - you have a floor made of uneven tiles and rocks and obstacles. You pour a mug of water from one corner of the floor. Now, regardless what you want, the water will flow the path of least resistance.

On Market, the Price always follows the path of least resistance. So there will be times when it will make short-term move against higher degree trend as well (and our bias) like today

You got 2 options -

1. stay aside (don't be a resistance or short to make loss) and let it flow till it loses out steam and short at that point (to go with higher degree trend)

2. Follow the price and encash it.

The issue here - you need to be sure this is not a fake. What I did here:

I generally look at the length of the BO (breakout candle), The body have to >= 50% of the total length approx to show the strength - and I actually waited for the ST flip to happen and the price to close above the 100 EMA (yellow).

Booked on the first sign of trend exhaustion (look at the double top on the RSI of the OBV (blue))

Thanks Bro, Understood everything except the length of the break out candle part

DM

 

[Tuna]

Thanks Bro, Understood everything except the length of the break out candle part

DM

Lets skip this , it is a way of identifying the higher probability of a breakout compared to fakes. Learnt it from one breakout trader in India, generally use it for cash segment to make entry on genuine BO.

But will require a bit of explanation, may be later. Lets stick to our systems to avoid too many adjustments.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tuna]

Crude -15 points loss booked, was short. Don't ask me why I was short. Even I am wondering if I am walking towards the wood again instead of coming out of it. Disgusting.

 

[Happy_Singh]

Crude -15 points loss booked, was short. Don't ask me why I was short.

Is't it obvious to you . . .

well as a reader of your journal it appears,

you HTF directional biases for Nifty are Long and crude are Short


Happy

 

[Tuna]

Is't it obvious to you . . .

well as a reader of your journal it appears,
you HTF biases for Nifty are Long and crude are Short


Happy

I guess you got it right. But apart from my HFT bias, there is one thing which is appearing on the surface (going by the crude journal):

My 'quotient of discretion' on Nifty (which adds the flavour of 'me' on my trading systems and max the win-rates) are my killer on crude. Actually, my win-rate on crude is higher only on those which are taken post 5-30 pm. On contrary, whichever trade on crude I had taken in day-time or may be immediately after the NSE closure - are having less win-rate.

Later when I go through those during my weekend review, I wonder why I took those.

May be 2 quick fixes

1. Follow the system blindly for Crude (w/o any discretion)
2. Follow own style, but later in evening (so that my hangover on Nifty trading is over and my Psy system is reset to neutral)

1 is easier, but let me try 2 first. I don't to miss 'me' from my trading. Shall let you know if it worked.

 

[GoldenTrader]

I am Following Rule 1 now a days.

B'cause Rule 2 hurts me a lot.