Trend Reversal???


Well-Known Member
Daily MACD is at a 7th Month High telling us that BULLS are exceptionally strong and markets can get even higher.. Also SHORTING is not permitted at all in any situations.. Daily and Weekly Impulse is not allowing us to go SHORT.. Slope of MACD and MAs on both WEEKLY and DAILY charts is UP..

A good sentence by Dr. Alexander Elder, "I don't try to catch runaway trains and similarly I don't try to get on runaway trends."
I am also with you on this front waiting for train to halt

Stock trendy

Well-Known Member
It is purely News driven market...can go to any high true but 5740 spot is reversal point either up or that any close above this will push the market further highs or will hit this and retrace to some pull back levels it's difficult call Monday fails to sustain above 5700 could be the indication for spot Nifty to test some lows ..expecting some mild correction to the levels of 5620 bought 5700 puts at the dead end let me see what that is going to give me it was risky call..
More room for upside?

Below i have uploaded the weekly and daily charts for NF..

The MACD in weekly charts are at 8 months high which suggests that the bulls are at the strongest that they have been in the past month and that shows us that the market is very bullish for now.. We don't predict(we aint saints) whats going to happen but we go with the flow(trend) and the flow is upside.. Just like the doctor who doesn't forecast but works according to the situation..

Even the daily charts are screaming for more.. MAs in both the charts are having an upwards slope with MACD at the highest since february..

If you dont feel like buying then it surely isnt advisable to sell in these conditions.. The impulse is green and doesnt permit us to short.. Although maybe the day traders who trades ranges might short it.. But as a trend follower, shorting aint advisable and if you do short it for some reason then have very tight SLs.. Markets will have to fall substantially to change the trend..

Weekly :

Daily :

Note : The studies mentioned here are my findings and others may or may not agree to it.. Any suggestions or feedback highly welcomed and appreciated..
What the hell did just happen?? I literally hate this... I think this kind of thing would only happen in India.. Although the news people are saying that a very big short order came in and it got executed and thus the result.. So should we assume that that big order's target too was achieved?? The spot nifty's low is 4888 so an approximately 900pt profit?? I aam just confused..

Although the immediate thing that might happen and have already started happening is that the bulls would get scared and when that happens, the others (bears) pounces on.. I think there will be heavy profit booking and the sheep and bears would come in(mostly the sheep).. The charts have ticked down.. MACD just ticked down from yesterday's level.. After almost a month, MACD ticked down(it has been making a nice upward move).. That would technically suggests all longs to be exited.. SLs are gonna be triggered too as they were not that far away(atleast not for me)..

I expect some statements to come through.. Caution is to be maintained and exit all positions(mostly long).. I wouldn't trade until the market stabilizes..
The markets seems to be in a correction mode right now.. The daily impulse have turned red for the past two days which doesn't permit us to go long at all while the weekly impulse is Blue which allows us to short or long.. Weekly impulse had been green for quite some weeks and so it now has allowed us to short.. The Daily MACD Histogram is on a downward slope.. In daily charts, the 11EMA have ticked slightly down while the 22EMA have gone flat warning us about using any trend following strategies and having tight stops whichever direction we decide to trade in.. The prices are between 11 and 22 EMAs in daily charts which is the perfect price(neither too costly nor too cheap) to enter shorts(as we are not allowed to go long because of the impulse). I would enter shorts with the SL of just around 5700 (+-3).. I would be careful if i were following any trend following strategies and would keep the trailing SLs moving towards the trade rather too soon than late..

Below are the Daily and Weekly charts..

When the Market made the new high right now, the red impulse turned blue and so now the weekly and daily impulse is blue permitting us to either buy/sell.. No restrictions whatsoever..

Although following SH's swing trading, SAR is hit and fresh longs just intiated around 5711 with today's low the new SAR.. (Longs are only valid because of the blue weekly and daily impulse.. They wouldn't have been valid if the daily impulse have still stayed red.. )
Weekly :

The weekly Elder Impulse is Blue removing the bias.. According to that, we are allowed to either go long or short.. Although, the MACD and the the MAs still have maintained their up slope. It indicates that the market is still not in a downtrend (am not talking about intraday ).

Daily :

After the analysis of the Weekly, we move onto the daily charts.. Here the impulse have been blue for some days and with couple red in between suggesting the market is undecided.. NF have shed away its gains from last month and have been in consolidation and correction phase... Today too the impulse is going red/blue and is not able to decide anything.. It appears that market is rangebound with the range of 250-300 points with strong support around 5650 zone.. The slope of the MACD is down but the MAs have gone flat suggesting a trendless market.. The prices are hovering around and between the two EMAs (11 and 22)..

I would like to stick to my statement of not using a trend following method for NF for now.. Maintain sound money management skills and strict SLs while trading ranges.. We can't be decisive if the market itself is undecided.. Move on to some other stocks or something until the NF starts on a move (doesn't matter up or down; we go with the flow.. ) TIME TO GO FISHING




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I have created some rules that i should follow and would like to share it with you guys (and gals too).. I make sure to read it every morning before analyzing the markets or before trading.. There might be some adds in the future maybe but for now these general sets of protocols help me..

Always have a trading plan.
Never let your emotions (greed or fear) influence your decision.
Follow your trading plan and not your mind or heart.
Always have a plan to include when not to enter the markets. When not
to go long and when not to go short.
You need to always have a trading plan that includes rules for Entry,
Exit, SL when entered, Trailing SL, Profit Booking, Pyramiding and Money
Do not go looking for trades. Trade when the trade is jumping out from
the charts.
Always look at the long time frame to confirm the trend (The factor of 5
can be used).
Do not go against the trend; although, some options can be traded to
cover the profits. (Rare Exceptions)
Never aim to catch the top and bottom of the trends.
Always give the benefit of doubt to trading ranges and not trends.
Never buy or sell short at prices way higher or lower than the value
zone (Moving Averages).
Standing aside is not bad and you should stand aside when not sure.
Its not compulsory to trade every day.
You need to know in advance what you are going to do during the
trading session, before the session begins.
Always keep SLs.
Always try to get the SL to breakeven levels.
Do not add to loosing trades.
Stop Loss should always go ahead with the trade.
Add only when the added trades SL is lesser than the profit of the
original entered trade.
Trade in profits should never turn into loss.
Book profits in highly volatile markets (loud) and enter when the markets
are less volatile (quiet).
Profits and losses should always include the slippages, commissions and
A profit booking trade is better than an SL hitting trade (even in
Never predict or forecast but work accordingly with the market.
Theres a time to go short; theres a time to long and theres a time to
It's better to miss a train than to try to get on a runaway train.
(Replace train with 'TREND').
It's better to miss a turn than to enter the wrong way.

Hope this helps some people


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