What Exactly Can the ECB Do?
The markets are continuing their short squeeze, Euro-phoria induced lunacy. As a quick reminder the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% while many European indexes have rallied double digits (Spain's Ibex is up an unbelievable 17%!)
In light of this, we need to take a look at the facts, because much of this feels too much like 2008 (at that time the S&P 500 rallied 7%, 11%, even 18% based on various "interventions" all of which turned out to be duds).
Regardless of what Draghi said, what exactly can the ECB do?
Technically, the ECB can buy sovereign bonds on the market.
However, it hasn't done this in 17 weeks. The reason? Germany wouldn't stand for it. Draghi seems to believe he can start doing this again now.
Whether this is truth or Draghi is bluffing is very difficult to tell. Germany has fired back several times that it's not in favor of this policy. The Bundesbank's President
even went to far as to say this move would be against "democracy."
If the ECB moves without Germany's approval, things could get ugly very fast. The reason is that Germany is the true backstop for the EU. And if Germany says "nein" then the markets will call the ECB's bluff.
And let us not forget that the ECB bought sovereign bonds throughout 2011 and still lost control of the bond market several times: