Trading with PT style

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What Exactly Can the ECB Do?

The markets are continuing their short squeeze, Euro-phoria induced lunacy. As a quick reminder the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% while many European indexes have rallied double digits (Spain's Ibex is up an unbelievable 17%!)

In light of this, we need to take a look at the facts, because much of this feels too much like 2008 (at that time the S&P 500 rallied 7%, 11%, even 18% based on various "interventions" all of which turned out to be duds).

Regardless of what Draghi said, what exactly can the ECB do?

Technically, the ECB can buy sovereign bonds on the market.

However, it hasn't done this in 17 weeks. The reason? Germany wouldn't stand for it. Draghi seems to believe he can start doing this again now.

Whether this is truth or Draghi is bluffing is very difficult to tell. Germany has fired back several times that it's not in favor of this policy. The Bundesbank's President
even went to far as to say this move would be against "democracy."

If the ECB moves without Germany's approval, things could get ugly very fast. The reason is that Germany is the true backstop for the EU. And if Germany says "nein" then the markets will call the ECB's bluff.

And let us not forget that the ECB bought sovereign bonds throughout 2011 and still lost control of the bond market several times:
 
Gold Rush in China Could See It Sweep Past India

"China may have overtaken India as the world's top consumer of gold in the first quarter of 2012, but the country is not resting on its laurels. By buying gold mines and accumulating the produced gold before it hits the international market, China is able to purchase gold below the spot gold price."
 
Gold Bulls Strengthen on Outlook for Additional Stimulus

Bloomberg, Nicholas Larkin - "Gold traders are the most bullish in five weeks as investors expanded their bullion holdings near a record on mounting speculation that central banks will have to do more to bolster economic growth." (8/10/12)
 
Copper Investors Remain Hopeful for China Stimulus


China's industrial output has reached a three-year low. That is seen by some copper traders as a blessing as it may push Beijing to once again take steps to stimulate economic growth, which in turn should drive up copper demand.

So keep eye on china while shorting copper nowonwards
 

Gold Update...

The weekly chart shows how critical the mid $1500s are for Gold. It is where Gold began its mini-parabolic launch in summer 2011. It is where Gold found support in the fall and winter. Gold has spent the last 11 weeks trading mostly from $1550 to $1625. If Gold can continue higher this week, it will make an important breakout.
 

prst

Well-Known Member
hi bro,
I have some questions regarding your useful strategy.

1. regarding the conract month, should we always buy the longest period contract? ie. today i should buy nov contract ?
2. suppose I buy nov contract at 3000, should I average down if it goes down by 5%?
3. should i always go for long trade or should try short also ?

thanks in advance.
 
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