Trading ... Trader ... AND I ...

howardroark

Well-Known Member
#62
1. Requirement analysis
Ask yourself – Why am I here? Why am I trading? Why am I trading Fx?
How does Fx trading help me differently than my other income sources?

2. Prepare a list of your immediate, near future and distant future needs, wants, assets, family obligations etc, in terms of Financial aspects.

I’m giving my example (not to boast myself) as there might be few people here, who might be in the same phase of life, like me.
I’m 40, married with a 9 year kid. By god’s grace and efforts of my parents, I do not have to take care of them, FINANCIALLY. As we already own houses (fixed assets) in abroad and India, I do not need to worry about assets as well. Therefore, my financial concerns are my kid’s higher studies, her marriage and our old age. These aspects influence my MM which in turn influences my trading decisions.

All of us know that one bigger account gives more comfort, flexibility and larger profits. But, we have divided the total trade-able amount in to three different accounts. The reason being, trading (earning) is a road to a destination (life and Living) and as roads and destinations are different, these 3 trading accounts are also different. Though all the accounts are worth 10,000$, the way we treat each one of them are different. I trade my 10k aggressively, with more risk and profit from this account takes care of our present day to day necessities, expenses and luxuries, vacations etc. My wife, trades one 10k account with lesser risk and the profit goes in to different bank, savings and regular retirement returns investment portfolios which takes care of our old age requirements. My wife also, trades the third 10k account with least risk and the profit from this account, goes exclusively in to higher education of our kid. Please understand why I have made few statements in bold.

So, three different accounts of same size are traded in different way and the profits are put in to different more secured investments. This is my Life related MM strategy and this influences all our trading strategies as well.

3. Few of you know that I quit as a country head (serving last month of notice period) to dedicate more time to learn and earn from FX and to live comfortable retired life (what the heck, I’m already retired). My pay check was 70,000$ / year and this is what I have to earn, to compensate for my salary, from my 10k account. So, basic and broader plan is to earn 6k every month.

4. I understand and accept that few trading days will be range bound, few days will not have liquidity and few times, I might be sick. So I consider 15 trading days a month. Any extra trading day is a bonus. This means that i have to earn 400$ a trading day. I have also realised that MOST OF THE TIMES, A PAIR RUNS FOR 20 DAYS IN ONE DIRECTION AND IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION FOR NEXT 20 DAYS. Idea is to get about 60% of this one directional trend. This 400$ a day forms the core of my all trading decisions, plans, expectations, R2R etc. Open any 4H chart to know what I’m talking about, trend having a cycle of 20 trading days.

5. So, the destination, goal is 400$. If I trade 1$ a Pip, I need 400 pips a day. If I chase this, either I become mentally retarded or sexually deprived. Jokes part, we know that it’s not humanly possible. So, I trade ONLY 10$ a Pip. With this, I have to keep banking 40 pips. But, all pairs will not give 400$ for 40 Pips. What is the solution? I always look ONLY for pairs that have enough room to travel minimum 50+ pips. 50 pips on any pair will almost give 400$. If not, give them a miss. Move on. Search all over after some time. Wait, wait, wait and wait some more, when the opportunity comes grab it, left, right and center.

6. Trading is just another source of income, nothing more, and nothing less as well. We have to make each of our $ stretch and earn more. HOW? POSITION SIZING. Every trade is taken with a pre-determined risk. Now, in my strategy, each trade is taken with risk of 250$ (not in terms of pips). As I expect better and higher R2R, once a trade gets in to 25+ (in EU, EJ, UJ, AU) and 30+ (in GU, GJ, EA, GA), I move the trade to BE and immediately open a new trade with same TP, as the 1st trade. As the 1st trade is already at BE, again my risk is 250$ all over. With this, I’m keeping my risk appetite at the same cost, but giving chance for higher profit. And I keep doing it for next every 25+ to 30+. Some time ago, I had 6 full lots running on GJ as it nosedived for 150+ pips. What is the R2R? Why the difference in pips for the trade to be at BE. First pairs have lesser volatility compared to the latter pairs. Period.

7. Trading is neither easy as kinder garden, nor tough like rocket science. It is how we treat the market, trading and the trade/s. We have our ways to make it simple. We also have ways to complicate it to the T. What do we want?

8. Few things I keep doing day in day out and week in, week out.

a. Every day, as soon as I wake up (1 hour in to Tokyo), I look at ADR on the 8 pairs that I trade and qualify them. A pair with more than 100 pips range qualifies to be traded on that day, starting from the highest ADR pair on the extreme left of my MT4. The reason is to catch 60% of the ADR and if a pair has less than 100 pips ADR, it will not reach my target of 50+.

b. After deciding on the pairs to be traded, I go to 4H TF and mark the nearest S/R levels. If they are too close to the market, give it a miss. I trade to make profit, not because I have a 10k account.

c. Each of my trade/s is/are opened with 50 pip TP and 25 pips SL and each trade is moved to BE at 25 – 30 pips
depending on the pair. Once a pair is moved to BE, I open one more trade immediately. I do this with ALL my trades. As I do not trust any trade manager EA’s, I activate 250 points (25 pips) TSL.

d. If a trade takes too much time to get in to profit, I know that my entry is wrong and kill the trade immediately, either for small profit / loss.

e. For a pair to be traded, one market of the pair has to be open. For example, I do not trade EU in Tokyo session, nor do I trade AJ in NY session. The reason if both markets of a pair are closed, liquidity will be negligible. Period. Best time is when both the markets of the pair are open.

f. Candles convey a lot of stories. I read and respect them a lot. If the O and C convey the direction (HH, LH, LL, HL), H and L (the gap between them) convey the liquidity / momentum. Is the candle sizes are small, if there is no gap at all between O,H,L and C, I DO NOT TRADE.

g. I will have only 1 trade open at any point of time. Gives time, energy and all important patience. If I have to open 2nd trade (either the same pair or the other), the 1st trade should already be at BE.

h. I do not think / feel what market / price might do. If a set up qualifies my parameters, I trade or move on.

i. I do not do top down analysis as too much information can actually confuse our mind more than it can help.

j. I do not install / follow too many indicators as by doing them I was always harmed by Analysis Paralysis.

k. What I technically lack, I make them up with my MM and discipline.

l. I do hear, read and try to understand what others have to say about a pair. But finally, I stick my strategy always all ways.

I do not know if all this banter actually helps any one as each trader is different and I strongly believe that Trading is more about the Psyche of the trader.

If anyone needs any help, I’m more than willing to share and help.

"Poor by birth is not a sin, dying poor is a crime"
 

Catch22

Well-Known Member
#63
I do not know if all this banter actually helps any one as each trader is different and I strongly believe that Trading is more about the Psyche of the trader.

If anyone needs any help, I’m more than willing to share and help.

"Poor by birth is not a sin, dying poor is a crime"

Have read a lot many threads.... yours stands apart. It has technicals, money management and trading psychology all in one... and add to that, personal experience. Put together, these can actually published as a blog, or a book.

Re. continuing the thread, if 100 read, less than 5 will thank you for it, and 2 will comment because they have a doubt. 1 may add something to what you say, because they appreciate what you do. Welcome to the world of forums!

Should you want to carry the thread forward, do so because it brings you joy, serves a purpose or is meaningful to you.

- From one Randian to another.
Iam always interested to read your posts:)
Pls continue your good work .

Best wishes
Amit.
This thread has quality information for a new/evolving trader. Few realize early that trading is not just reading charts (with or without indicators) - it is more of a evolution from understanding the effects of price action to "being in" the price action. Most of the failures in trading happen because the trader runs out of capital before she/he reaches the level of maturity. This is where this thread helps... it gives that crucial informational edge to all who are smart.

How many will use the information here? Well, how many traders are successful in the long run? That many! :)

If your intentions are to help others by sharing information - please do not stop.
Thanks
Howardroark, The above messages Say it all..It is a pleasure reading your posts .And in no way is it ' banter'
And as told by DSM , "If you are enjoying what you are doing , please continue...Looking forward to your wonderful posts!!!! . Take care!
 

howardroark

Well-Known Member
#65
Market, Market Structure and Market Harmonics.....

Friends, over next few days / weeks / posts, I will be talking exclusively on Market Structure, Market Harmonics and how to use these two in all our trading decisions. I request senior / professional traders here to contribute generously so that it will help all new traders to understand the concept in different and diversified way / terminology / charts etc.

Market is where all the buying and selling happens. Buying and selling creates market. Market is where bulls and bears fight out of their skin for supremacy. This creates Resistance and Support levels. This also creates Supply and Demand Zones. Market is where retail traders try to get in along with the investors. This creates Trend, range and sideways markets.

Market structure is THE WAY market moves and Trust me ... Market moves in waves, in swings, symmetrically both in distance and in time. If you need to be a good trader, if you aspire to be professional trader, you have got to understand the Market Structure ... Market leaves clues ... You have to have the ability to see and observe the left side of the market to see and understand those clues.

Let us start with market SWINGS because every advanced Technical Analysis depends on the swings.
Each BLUE line represents UP SWING .... Each RED line represents a DOWN SWING .... Each WHITE line represents different PSYCHOLOGICAL levels which creates a Resistance / Support zone ... and These are the clues that LEFT SIDE of our chart keeps advising a trader on .....

 

howardroark

Well-Known Member
#66
All of us, get up in the morning, shower, breakfast, put our office attire, drive our car on the Right or Left side of the road. Stop at junction, red light, slow down on many traffic, speed up on highway...........and we all just follow the flow.........until become second nature to us in many ways than ONE ........

Trading isn't any different, no aspect of life is. There are basic rules, a "flow" to learn to become accustomed to, a rhythm to follow and the result .......... you become one flow with the market!,


We are not in control of the markets, We are only in control over our emotions.
 

howardroark

Well-Known Member
#67
Nature loves a balance and people instinctively understand that.

As a result traders "expect" price to return to the "median" or to seek it's

"balance" though there is no "rational" reason for this other than it being a

self fulfilling prophecy.

What goes up must come down, everyone knows that!

Inertia keeps moving objects in motion and resists objects at rest from

movement. Everyone knows that too!

Life is filled with cycles, which scientists now call “circadian rhythm.”

Night and day, rise and fall of the tides, sleep and waking, excitement and depression. Everyone knows this too!

Fractal technology is the science of how larger things are built on smaller things.

Just look at a tree. One line “branches” into multiple lines and eventually

we have the shape we recognize trees to have, both in branches and roots ...

Give it a Thought ...

1. What goes up must come down. (Gravity) ... Price gravitates to its destination

2. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. (Median Lines)

3. Life follows predictable patterns. (Elliot Waves) ... Market Harmonics ... Price moves in waves ...

4. It takes a lot of energy for a trend to turn. (Inertia)

5. There is a rise and fall to all Price Action. (Sleep cycles/ Circadian Rhythms)

6. Everything is built on smaller things. (Fractal Science/ Geometry, etc.)

Law of The Universe, one will say ...

NOW ... Think all over again ...

The whole point in all this is...............

that life is built on self-fulfilling prophecies and expectencies.

So are the markets................. It really is that simple.

Yet everyone wants to try to make it complex and difficult to understand.

Trading is no more difficult than finding one or more of these that you can understand,
“SEE (DO NOT JUST LOOK)” clearly on a chart and trade effectively.

That then becomes your "edge."
 

howardroark

Well-Known Member
#68
Market ... Movement ... Profiting ...
How do we make consistent profit in The Market?
By regular longs? NO ... NO ... NO
By nonstop short selling? No ... NO ... NO
We can make regular and consistent profit by SHEER PARTICIPATION ...
How? Let me give you my own example.
I have a specific strategy for positional / long term trading. In this strategy, if D candle closes above 10 EMA, I keep buying, till the time latest D candle closes above 10 EMA and above previous D candle H. Reverse is true for Short entries. Once the market moves about 30 - 45 pips in my favour, I move SL to BE and forget the trade. I do not have targets for these trades as I’m aiming Infinite profits, beyond 700 – 1000 pips. And I keep moving my SL with every 100 pip increment. and I keep buying and selling as well, depending on where D candle closed with regards to 10 EMA.
Supposing, at the end of 50 trades (2 calendar months), I have about 30 buy trades (at various profits) and 20 sell trades (at various profits). Now, if my sell trades start hitting my SL, my buy trades start galloping as I have large buy trades and I start stacking buy trades all over again. On the other hand, if my buy trades start hitting my SL, my large sell trades start galloping and I start adding to my sell trades.
Do you get the picture? Power of PARTICIPATION.
Market goes up, I’m there. Market reverses, I’m there. I’m there at every important juncture to be part of a small swing, big swing, the trend and the counter trend.
I’m just participating. I’m a passenger, in all the journey, possible.
The market is neither Random nor “ZERO SUM GAME”.
Irrespective of the strength of our analysis, we cannot dictate the market. This week’s trend will become counter trend next week and by the time we realise it, it will start retracing again.
Take a Weekly chart of any pair and observe there will be few value/s / zones, where price never reached again, in the nearest past.
This being the case and when that can happen over and over and over again and again, I want to be in the market when that BIG SWING / TREND starts and I want to be at the LOWEST DIP and at the HIGHEST RALLY, possible. And this is possible when I keep participating in the market.
Participating is the key.
Participating at lowest business cost is our edge.
Participating is more important than winning, because the more we participate, the more chances we give ourselves to win more.
STAY IN GREEN ...
Wishing you all a very greener 2016 ...
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#69
As usual - Great post and remarkable insight. :clap:

Wishing you a great 2016! :thumb:

Market ... Movement ... Profiting ...
How do we make consistent profit in The Market?
By regular longs? NO ... NO ... NO
By nonstop short selling? No ... NO ... NO
We can make regular and consistent profit by SHEER PARTICIPATION ...
How? Let me give you my own example.
I have a specific strategy for positional / long term trading. In this strategy, if D candle closes above 10 EMA, I keep buying, till the time latest D candle closes above 10 EMA and above previous D candle H. Reverse is true for Short entries. Once the market moves about 30 - 45 pips in my favour, I move SL to BE and forget the trade. I do not have targets for these trades as I’m aiming Infinite profits, beyond 700 – 1000 pips. And I keep moving my SL with every 100 pip increment. and I keep buying and selling as well, depending on where D candle closed with regards to 10 EMA.
Supposing, at the end of 50 trades (2 calendar months), I have about 30 buy trades (at various profits) and 20 sell trades (at various profits). Now, if my sell trades start hitting my SL, my buy trades start galloping as I have large buy trades and I start stacking buy trades all over again. On the other hand, if my buy trades start hitting my SL, my large sell trades start galloping and I start adding to my sell trades.
Do you get the picture? Power of PARTICIPATION.
Market goes up, I’m there. Market reverses, I’m there. I’m there at every important juncture to be part of a small swing, big swing, the trend and the counter trend.
I’m just participating. I’m a passenger, in all the journey, possible.
The market is neither Random nor “ZERO SUM GAME”.
Irrespective of the strength of our analysis, we cannot dictate the market. This week’s trend will become counter trend next week and by the time we realise it, it will start retracing again.
Take a Weekly chart of any pair and observe there will be few value/s / zones, where price never reached again, in the nearest past.
This being the case and when that can happen over and over and over again and again, I want to be in the market when that BIG SWING / TREND starts and I want to be at the LOWEST DIP and at the HIGHEST RALLY, possible. And this is possible when I keep participating in the market.
Participating is the key.
Participating at lowest business cost is our edge.
Participating is more important than winning, because the more we participate, the more chances we give ourselves to win more.
STAY IN GREEN ...
Wishing you all a very greener 2016 ...
 

howardroark

Well-Known Member
#70
My income is primarily determined by my philosophy and not by the economy. As my perception dictates my behaviors, so thus my philosophy will dictate my performances and results. It is crucial to have, to know and understand my own trading philosophy. It is very important to know myself.

Understand that if I am not succeeding in trading, then I need to change my philosophy. I cannot continue to do the same thing over and over again expecting to get a different result. If I want to change my results (always losing), my philosophy has to change.

Explanation:
The fundamental of all human psychology: "Perception dictates Behavior". If you perceive your environment to be threatening, you will act accordingly. However you perceive an object, you will act according to your perception.

Here is an example:
Imagine that you are very hungry. Now, picture a roast chicken in front of you. Would you eat it? --- yes or no --- it'll depend of your perception of the roast chicken.
You see, more likely you would eat the chicken because your perception is non-threatening. What if I told you that the roast chicken is poisonous,... would you still eat it? (of course not!)
I've changed your perception and you've changed your behavior instantly. Yet, there is no objective proof that the roast chicken is poisonous. You are simply acting from your perception that the roast is poisonous.

Your behavior of trading is a reflection of the underlying perception you have about trading. Whether you are aware of these perceptions or not. The negative result speaks for themselves. Your perception is the philosophy running in the back of your mind, quietly and unnoticed.

Your perception will dictate your behavior. Thus, your philosophy will dictate your performances and results. If you want to change your results, you have to change your philosophy. You need to possess a solid trading philosophy.

"Money will take you wherever you want to, but it does not change the fact that YOU ARE THE DRIVER" - Ayn Rand

In the same way, Trading is not about the terminal, contract notes, trend, Indicators etc. Trading is about the Psyche of the trader. PERIOD