The Best Trading System

[goldenedge]

Some stuff I've learned along the way that revolutionized my trading.

1) The best loser is the only winner in the market.

2) If you trade for money, you will never make it.

3) It's better to assume that the trade you're going to make is a loss and prepare accordingly rather than assuming that it will be a profit and getting disappointed.

4) Contrary to what most people think, your emotions aren't your enemy. It's a sign that something is wrong.

Hope I added something of value.

 

[Happy_Singh]

Hello

Did some initial testing based on the rules given.

Trading time frame: 5 Minutes
Indicator BB (Period = 20, Factor = 1.5)

Higher Time frame

Daily: Indicator Super Trend (Period = 30, Factor = 1);
Hourly: Indicator Super Trend (Period = 30, Factor = 2);
15 Minutes: Indicator Super Trend (Period = 30, Factor = 4);

Ticker: Nifty Spot (data set from Jan to December 2016)
Fixed stop loss at 75 points
Fixed Profit stop at 150 points

The system generated around 35 trades with above 55 % winners and overall gains of about 2000 points (1800 after cost).

Tried out some variations as follows

1) Reducing the stop to 50 also improves performance in all variations


2) Replacing the BB with one more ST on 5 Minutes gave a slight better result.


3) Eliminating the trading TF (i.e 5 Minutes) improved the results a lot (15% more winner and 25% extra points).
i.e here the trading TF is 15 Minutes and reference to HTF of Daily & Hourly
entry trigger was the ST on 15 minutes for e.g.
Go Long when ST on both Daily and Hourly are Long
and the ST on 15 flips from Short to Long

But 2 & 3 above do not go exactly with the principle of system that was presented . . .
the entry gets based on breakout (ST flip) rather than pull back (lower end of BB)


4) Also tried eliminating the daily TF ST, it actually does not make much difference in performance,
although the number of trades increase slightly.

5) While planning the trades, if one also considers the S/R zones and
the obvious failure/rejections without waiting for SL to hit every time (scratching the trades)
the win/loss will improve further.

Over all it is a good set of rules put together.
makes it robust system (maybe some fine tuning as per individual preferences )


Thanks

Happy

 

[Tuna]

Hello

Did some initial testing based on the rules given.

Trading time frame: 5 Minutes
Indicator BB (Period = 20, Factor = 1.5)

Higher Time frame

Daily: Indicator Super Trend (Period = 30, Factor = 1);
Hourly: Indicator Super Trend (Period = 30, Factor = 2);
15 Minutes: Indicator Super Trend (Period = 30, Factor = 4);

Ticker: Nifty Spot (data set from Jan to December 2016)
Fixed stop loss at 75 points
Fixed Profit stop at 150 points

The system generated around 35 trades with above 55 % winners and overall gains of about 2000 points (1800 after cost).

Tried out some variations as follows

1) Replacing the BB with one more ST on 5 Minutes gave a slight better result.

2) Eliminating the trading TF (i.e 5 Minutes) improved the results a lot (15% more winner and 25% extra points).
i.e here the trading TF is 15 Minutes and reference to HTF of Daily & Hourly
entry trigger was the ST on 15 minutes for e.g.
Go Long when ST on both Daily and Hourly are Long
and the ST on 15 flips from Short to Long


3) Reducing the stop to 50 also improves performance in all variations

First of all, thanks a ton for the effort Happy Bro !! I got around 90% on the bearish setup for last 3 months (I got only that much data only on MTF).

1 Query: Did you force the system to exit on hitting profit target I mentioned? If yes, we are good. Otherwise, you can try that variation.

May I request you to try one little change which I added later? Add an 'AND' condition to ADX-14(60 mins) TF > '25' to the whole logic branch. Please keep us posted how it goes (improve or worsen). I guess it will filter out some of the losers.

On net, 1800 points a year on Nifty with a single system with a Mechanical Following is not bad. We can improve the hit rate (cutting off the losing trades), once we manually check if the Signals are falling in the zone of bullish or bearish Pivot confluence. That will do the trick.

 

[Happy_Singh]

First of all, thanks a ton for the effort Happy Bro !! I got around 90% on the bearish setup for last 3 months (I got only that much data only on MTF).

1 Query: Did you force the system to exit on hitting profit target I mentioned? If yes, we are good. Otherwise, you can try that variation.

May I request you to try one little change which I added later? Add an 'AND' condition to ADX-14(60 mins) TF > '25' to the whole logic branch. Please keep us posted how it goes (improve or worsen). I guess it will filter out some of the losers.

On net, 1800 points a year on Nifty with a single system with a Mechanical Following is not bad. We can improve the hit rate (cutting off the losing trades), once we manually check if the Signals are falling in the zone of bullish or bearish Pivot confluence. That will do the trick.

Hi

Yes the sys exits the trades when profit stop are hit

Will add 60 minutes ADX filter and check,

On the above system there is no real logic to the exits, besides 75/150 points of loss/profit,
while actual trading this leaves lot of scope for improvement,


Happy

 

[Tuna]

True. If you see my posts earlier, I am ok with any setup which gives 50% win rate with 1.5 R. Here we are roughly getting 55% with 2 R. Trade management will take care of the rest.


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[Happy_Singh]

True. If you see my posts earlier, I am ok with any setup which gives 50% win rate with 1.5 R. Here we are roughly getting 55% with 2 R. Trade management will take care of the rest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

3 R

50 points seems to be good initial SL for nifty on your current setup . . .

The win rate should be minimum 65-70%, once we consider entry/exit location wrt S/R confluence zones

Thanks


Happy

 

[Tuna]

Nice, may be (if I may ask) share the amiB snippet for this so that folks using amibroker can play with this.

Btw just let us know of adx14 > 25 on hourly improved the win rate or spoils it.
Thanks a lot for all your time Bro

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[masterjee]

Tuna - Thanks for the thread. Tried out the system today on options 8200 single lot with the following results.

Setup 2 Short signal at 9:26 duration 7 minutes to target profit
Setup 2 Long signal at 11:45 duration 28 minutes - scratch
Setup 2 Long Signal at 12:42 duration 56 minutes to target profit

Setup 1 - I could not locate in real time.

Gave Good results :clapping: - Will try out for the full month with small position to test.

regards

m

 

[Tuna]

Tuna - Thanks for the thread. Tried out the system today on options 8200 single lot with the following results.

Setup 2 Short signal at 9:26 duration 7 minutes to target profit
Setup 2 Long signal at 11:45 duration 28 minutes - scratch
Setup 2 Long Signal at 12:42 duration 56 minutes to target profit

Setup 1 - I could not locate in real time.

Gave Good results :clapping: - Will try out for the full month with the small position to test.

regards

m

What does matter - that you got profit

It might sound funny, but now tell me which system you used? All my weapons are here on this thread (including the recent MFTs on which Happy is helping us with the backtest).

To me it sounds like you used the CCI_ST_VWMA (or VWAP) one. Is that right?

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My Trading Concept # 2​

One comment on this:

Gave Good results :clapping: - Will try out for the full month with small position to test.

regards

m

Sure, but please with Pivot point confluence. You may try free style, but coupling with Pivots will help you filtering out losing trades a lot.

 

[Tuna]

Will add 60 minutes ADX filter and check,

Paaji, tussi kitthe ?