Technical analysis on EU,GU and major pairs

[johny5]

EUR/USD Buy Above 1.2250 For August 03, 2012

Yesterday the euro dropped again reaching 1.2138 amid Mario Draghis announcements supported by several European leaders. However, the ECB President did not meet investors expectations. His announcements were just empty declarations without any steps to be taken which proved again that nobody knows how to cope with the crisis.
On a technical level, the euro is trading below 1.2250 weekly pivot, offsetting yesterdays losses. Only a close above 1.2250 will indicate the beginning of a new upward trend with the target of 1.2410 which is likely to be unchanged during the next week as well. We, therefore, recommend buying above 1.2250.
The indicators are showing an imminent upward bounce.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-06

The spot rate has bounced off the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5490 and is testing now the upper limit of this one at 1.5660. A breakthrough this level will release a good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but are approach overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a decline. Moreover, this resistance represents a rebound of 62% of the decline which was registered between July 27th and August 02th.
A decline is expected in the short term but most probable and less risky scenario is a break of this resistance. Taking this into account, we recommend making a "buy stop" and buy when the spot rate will break its resistance at 1.5660 with a target of 1.5720.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 6,2012

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in an upward move as we expected, developing impulsive (3) (coloured green). During the Friday's European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.2290 level (daily high). Therefore, during the New York session the EUR/USD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price hit a new 4-week high around 1.2390 level. Today during the early Asian session this major pair found resistance at 1.2442 and the price is currently trading around 1.2350 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2041-1.2390-1.2132) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2480 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 1.2350 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Sentix Investor Confidence and U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2088 (S2) 1.2175 (S1) 1.2228 (PP) 1.2314 (R1) 1.2401 (R2) 1.2454 (R3) 1.2540
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is likely to begin the upward movement. For this reason long positions at level 1.2400 with Stop Loss 1.2350 Take Profit 1 1.2480 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Strong Resistance 1.5760 - For August 07, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound is growing, affected by the manufacturing data from the UK. As it is seen, poor data does not have a significant impact on peer leaders.
The pair broke the 1.5585 significant support, which increased the pair chances to negotiate in the upcoming days above the 1.56 level. Overcoming of 1.5760 could accelerate growth in the previous days but the pair was locked in the price range of 1.54 - 1.5765.
Therefore, a return to the level of 1.5590 will give us the opportunity to buy at low prices with the objective of 1.5760 resistance, a break above 1.5770 will be the beginning of a new sequence upward to 1.5945.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 07, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The EUR/USD pair remains above 1.2395 fractal, an area that was moved during Monday session, despite the release of German factory orders data which demonstrated a higher than expected fall in July. This data in another context would have generated a significant drop in the pair, but for now pushed it back for only a few points.
It is possible that the euro can continue this upward trend, but on its way to the south the currency has many obstacles, for example, the level of 1.2485 is the resistance weekly, and the fractal above 1.2510 is a very strong level to overcome and stay above. On the other hand, the euro will continue to suffer from European crisis for a long period of time as no decision was taken.
Therefore, we recommend selling the 1.2485 level, with short term to the nearest support of 1.2210. The stop loss is placed above 1.2510 fractal.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 09, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The euro was affected by the ECB downgrading of growth expectations for the euro area by 2013 from 1% to 0.6%, which resulted in euro sale during the last hours.
At this time the pair is trading near the 1.2307 weekly support and is likely to demonstrate a rebound to the resistance of 1.2345, this level has served in previous days as a strong resistance. We recommend selling with objective at 1.2210.
Both, the MACD and trend indicators are showing a deeper downward sequence.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 9, 2012

The main tendency for the GBP/USD pair was bullish this week. As we see, the pair has been moving within three bullish channels which are depicted on the chart. However, the pair is showing some bullish weakness which is manifested in the recent overlapping swings that are taking place within the current Yellow channel.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair met the intraday Resistance Level of 1.5665 which expressed a significant bearish price action till now pushing the pair to the downside to test the lower limit of the Violet channel around price level of 1.5645. If this is broken, the pair will be able to resume its bearish movement towards 1.5600, 1.5545 then 1.5505.
The upper limit of the Yellow channel around 1.5690-1.5700 is considered as a strong intraday Resistance Level and a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.5735.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5680 for August 10, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The pound sterling is quoted below weekly pivot line, so it means that a close below this level could push the currency down to 1.5506. As you know the market is trying to rebound in the levels of support, so it is likely to rebound towards the 1.5675. At this level we recommend selling to the nearest targeted support 1.5506.
Furthermore, if after trading session the pair is above 1.5690, we recommend close our short positions as during the next week we could see a recovery of the pound sterling.
Both, MACD and trend indicators are showing mixed trend.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Ready To Push Higher - Analysis for August 10,2012

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move like we expected, this major pair is currently developing final C wave (coloured purple) of the bigger corrective wave 2 (coloured blue). Yesterday during the European and New York sessions we could observe a strong descending movement towards the 1.2266 level. At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2260 level and we are expecting to see price higher today when the development of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2133-1.2441-1.2259) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2563 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2759. To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2133 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU French Industrial Production m/m, French Gov Budget Balance and U.S. Import Prices m/m, Federal Budget Balance data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2198 (S2) 1.2245 (S1) 1.2273 (PP) 1.2319 (R1) 1.2366 (R2) 1.2394 (R3) 1.2440
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2310 with Stop Loss 1.2133, Take Profit 1 1.2563 and Take Profit 2 1.2759 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert

 

[Blu]

Hi johny,

Excellent analysis. EUR/USD is going to head higher. We can see levels of 1.2900 even. We need to widen the stoploss a bit. I do not see any reason to keep 1.2133 as SL when 1.2100 shows a strong support. We know bears can make one last ditch effort to spike through this before value seeking bulls show up

Safer SL is 1.2050.

With You
Blu