Technical Analysis by ACFX

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December 30th, 2011

Currencies EUR/USD The euro is set for its first back- to-back annual drop versus the dollar since 2001 on concern Europes debt crisis will weigh on the regions economic growth. The euro slid 0.1 percent to $1.2947 as of 6:46 a.m. in London.

USD/CAD The Canadian dollar rose to the highest level since January against the euro on speculation the European Central Bank will need to increase cash injections after Italy failed to sell the maximum amount at debt auctions. The loonie gained 0.3 percent to C$1.3221 against the euro at 5 p.m. Toronto time.

Commodities Oil rose for a second day, heading for a third yearly increase, on speculation escalating tension in the Middle East may disrupt supplies as a recovery in the U.S. economy bolsters demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery gained as much as 51 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $100.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold, poised for an 11th year of advance, rebounded from the lowest level in six months as a slump that threatened to tip the metal into a bear market spurred purchases, tempering the effect of a stronger dollar. February-delivery bullion rose as much as 1.3 percent to $1,561 an ounce.

 

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January 3rd, 2012

Currencies EUR/USD The dollar fell against 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts as signs that manufacturing is expanding in the worlds two largest economies weighed on demand for haven assets. The dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.2986 per euro as of 6:50 a.m. in London from yesterday.
GBP/USD went basically unchanged for the Monday session as traders went back and forth in a 100 pip range.
Commodities Oil climbed in New York after manufacturing activity expanded in China and India and investors bet that further sanctions against Iran will curb supply. Crude for February delivery advanced as much as $1.87 to $100.70 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $100.67 at 2:09 p.m. Singapore time.
Gold rallied more than 1 percent and silver jumped over 2 percent on Tuesday as investors returned in the new year with a renewed appetite for riskier assets such as commodities. Spot gold rose as much as 1.4 percent to $1,586.95 an ounce and eased slightly to $1,585.79 by 0514 GMT, rebounding from a 10-percent loss in December.

 

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January 4th, 2012 Market outlook

Currencies EUR/USD The greenback yesterday slid versus all of its most-traded peers as reports this week showed manufacturing in the U.S. and China improved in December. The dollar traded at $1.3041 per euro at 6:45 a.m. in London after dropping 0.9 percent to $1.3050 yesterday.
GBP/USD Sterling rose versus the dollar on Tuesday as better than expected global economic data supported riskier currencies. Sterling was up 0.9 percent versus the dollar at $1.5653.It extended gains after reported stop-loss orders were triggered on the break above $1.5600.
The AUD/USD pair continued its upside movements to reach its highest level in more than three weeks, as the weak US dollar helped the Aussie to cover all of its previous losses. The better than expected PMI numbers about the Australian economy helped the Aussie to take the lead against the dollar
Commodities Oil traded near the highest price in almost eight months as investors speculated that tension over Iran, shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles and signs of economic recovery will tighten supplies. Crude for February delivery yesterday gained $4.13 to $102.96, the highest close since May 10. Prices climbed 8.2 percent in 2011, the third annual increase.
Spot gold lost half a percent on Wednesday, shedding the previous session's strong gains on encouraging economic data from the United States and Europe, although the fall may be capped by rising concerns on Iran.

 

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Yuan hits peak after record mid-point, gradual rise seen

SHANGHAI: China's yuan hit a record high against the dollar on Wednesday after the People's Bank of China set the mid-point at a new high, underpinning expectations for further rises in the Chinese currency near term. The yuan was also pushed up by a weak dollar index, while the euro held on to overnight gains as investors cut bearish positions in the common currency after upbeat data bolstered risk appetite. "The market still believes the yuan has potential to rise further in 2012. It could be a turning point," said a dealer at a Chinese bank in Shanghai. Spot yuan hit an intraday record high of 6.2930 versus the dollar, up from last Friday's close of 6.2940. It rose 4.7 percent in 2011. Before trading began, the PBOC fixed the dollar/yuan mid-point at a record high of 6.3001, up slightly from Friday's 6.3009. The central bank uses the fixing to express the government's intention for the yuan's movements in a day. The market was closed on Monday and Tuesday for the New Year's Holiday. Dealers said the central bank set the mid-point only eight pips firmer even though the dollar index drop 0.6 percent, which signalled its intention to keep the yuan in a small range. They still see the yuan appreciating in 2012 as China faces U.S. pressure to do more to rebalance bilateral and world trade, while it continues to record trade surpluses. But the rate of appreciation is expected to slow to about 3 percent next year, with most of the gains happening in the second half, they said. Offshore, benchmark one-year non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) rose slightly to 6.3315 on Wednesday against 6.3290 at the close on Friday, still implying that the yuan would depreciate. They now imply 0.50 percent depreciation over the next year, compared with a 0.46 percent fall implied on Friday. One-year NDFs began to mainly imply yuan depreciation in late September, reversing a general trend of forecasting yuan appreciation in place since the yuan's revaluation in 2005.

 

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January 9th, 2012

Currencies EUR/USD The euro (EUR) touched an 11-year low against the yen and traded 0.3 percent from the least in nearly 16 months versus the dollar before the German and French leaders meet amid signs the regions sovereign-debt crisis is damping growth prospects.
The shared currency declined 0.1 percent to $1.2704 and earlier reached $1.2666, its weakest level since September 2010.

GBP/USD Last week, the pair continued its fall for the second week as the dollar took advantage of the safety demand amid the undergoing concerns from the euro area.
On Monday, Both economies lack economic fundamentals which propose that there would be calm trading on the pair which is predicted to follow the general trend in market.

USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair fluctuated last week after it recorded its lowest level in two months, as both of the yen and the greenback recorded gains against other majors.
The USD/JPY pairs movements will depend on the next move from the BOJ, or the dollar performance against other majors in case the BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged.

 

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January 11th, 2012

Currencies EUR/USD The 17-nation currency slid against most of its major peers before Spain and Italy sell securities this week amid concern the nations will struggle to meet funding needs. The euro lost 0.2 percent to $1.2755 as of 6:55 a.m. in London from yesterday in New York.
AUD/USD The Australian dollar declined, snapping two-day gain, as Spain and Italy prepare to auction debt this week amid concern their credit ratings may be cut. Australias dollar declined 0.3 percent to $1.0279 as of 4:30 p.m. in Sydney from yesterday in New York, when it appreciated 0.7 percent.
Commodities Oil traded near the highest settlement in almost one week as concern that supplies from Iran will be disrupted countered speculation Europe may enter a recession as it struggles to tame its debt crisis. Crude for February delivery was at $102.27 a barrel, up 3 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 3:13 p.m. Singapore time.
Gold futures extended sharp gains on Tuesday, trading at the highest level since mid-December as the euro's advance against the U.S. dollar boosted the appeal of precious metals. Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,606.05 a troy ounce, the previous day's low and short-term resistance at USD1,645.65, the high of December 14.

 

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January 12th, 2012

Currencies EUR/USD The 17-nation currency held a drop from yesterday versus the yen before figures estimated to show European output shrank in November.
The euro traded at $1.2712 as of 6:40 a.m. in London from $1.2707 yesterday in New York, when it slid to as low as $1.2662.

NZD/USD New Zealands dollar touched a two- month high against the greenback as a report showed Chinas inflation cooled for the fifth straight month in December, increasing speculation the Asian nation will provide more monetary stimulus.
New Zealands currency gained to 79.81 U.S. cents, the highest since Nov. 9, before trading at 79.55 at 4:09 p.m. in Sydney, 0.2 percent below yesterdays close in New York.

Commodities Oil rose from the lowest settlement in almost two weeks in New York on concern that a strike in Nigeria and the threat of sanctions against Irans nuclear program will curb crude supplies.
Crude for February delivery gained as much as 62 cents to $101.49 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday on concerns about the euro zone debt crisis ahead of Spain's bond auction and a European Central Bank meeting, as robust buying from China and India also supported sentiment.
Spot gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,644.69 an ounce by 0704 GMT, holding steady above the key 200-day moving average at about $1,636.

 

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January 16th, 2012

Currencies EUR/USD Last week on Friday the Euro sharply fell against its majors after the announcement surprised the market with the S&P downgrading France top credit rating by 1 notch to AA+.
The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.2646 at 6:46 a.m. in London from the close in New York on Jan. 13 when it touched $1.2624, the least since Aug. 25, 2010.

GBP/USD The market was hit hard on Friday and sterling extended the weekly losses on news that S&P downgraded France and likely Austria while Germany was safe, all reports were not confirmed with the end of the European session on Friday.
The Pound fell against the US dollar to as low as 1.5234 closing the trading week at 1.5317

Commodities Oil traded near the lowest price in almost four weeks as speculation that measures to quell Europes debt crisis are failing offset Irans call for support to defy a ban on its crude exports.
Crude for February delivery was at $98.92 a barrel, up 22 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:20 p.m. Sydney time.


Gold posted its biggest one-day drop in 2-1/2 weeks on Friday, as France and Austria were stripped of their coveted triple-A ratings amid the downgrades of nine euro zone nations, and Greece's talks with creditor banks stalled.

Equities Asian stocks fell ahead of a debt sale today by France after Standard & Poors stripped the country of its top credit rating and cut eight other European nations on concern the region hasnt done enough to contain its debt crisis.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2 percent.
Hong Kongs Hang Seng Index fell 1 percen.
Japans Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.4 percent

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January 17th, 2012

Currencies EUR/USD The euro had a quiet trading day yesterday as it remained lower as French bill auction eyed .
EUR/USD hit 1.2626 during European afternoon trade, the daily low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2666, easing down 0.08%.

GBP/USD The Pound consolidated yesterday as trading Volume remained lower due to US Bank holiday and lack of fundamental aspect.
GBPUSD hit 1.5274 during European session, the daily low; the pair is trading higher at the moment of writing this report, first major resistance level is at 1.5393.

Commodities Oil rose to the highest level in three days as France pushed for faster enforcement of a ban on Iranian imports and Saudi Arabias energy minister said the worlds biggest crude exporter wants prices at $100 a barrel.
Crude for February delivery rose to as high as $100.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.70 from the Jan. 13 closing price.

Spot gold climbed about 1 percent on Tuesday, encouraged by revived risk appetite that lifted markets across the board, after China announced better than expected economic growth in the last quarter of 2011.
Spot gold gained 0.9 percent to $1,658.19 an ounce by 0509 GMT, heading for a second consecutive session of gains.

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January 18th, 2012

Currencies EUR/USD The euro had a quiet trading day yesterday as the range levels remained unchanged, the euro against the greenback was ranging between high of 1.2788 and low of 1.2710.
During the Asian session the pair came to life after China reported that its economy grew at a strong pace, at the moment of writing this report the pair is trading at 1.2771, where we have the first major support level at 1.2813.

USD/CAD Canadas dollar reached the strongest level in two weeks against its U.S. counterpart as faster-than-forecast growth in China bolstered demand for higher-yielding assets.
Canadas currency touched C$1.0113 per U.S. dollar, the strongest since Jan. 4. It ended 0.3 percent higher at C$1.0151 in Toronto.

Commodities Oil rose for a second day after Iran cautioned Saudi Arabia against increasing supplies if sanctions are imposed on Iranian exports, while signs of economic growth in the U.S. and Germany bolstered bets fuel demand may increase.
Crude for February delivery rose as much as 72 cents to $101.43 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold rose for a third day, climbing alongside other commodities including copper, as the dollar weakened before data forecast to show signs of economic recovery.
Spot gold gained as much as 0.4 percent to $1,658.45 an ounce and traded at $1,654.48 at 1:40 p.m. in Singapore.

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