Teach A Man To Fish And.........

[Saint]

Dear prabhjeetrana,

Your question is directed towards Saint. But I am poking my nose uninvited. Understanding is that Saint will pardon me for that. He is very generous. I know it very well.

Never poking your nose,my friend.........always a pleasure!

I am not offending you nor shall I ever try to do so. You seem to be excited to take the trade. That is my guess. Excitement is the last thing in trading. Keep it aside and think logically before taking the trade. If you are taking the trade then you must wait for the completion of the candle. In the chart posted by you, the weekly candle. Otherwise, you are anticipating that weekly close is going to be higher that last week's low. But can you anticipate such a close? If you are an experienced trader and if you can read the chart very well, no problem. Otherwise, please make it a habit not to trade on weekly chart, that too on the last weekly candle before the closure of week. What are your plans if it were to close below the low of the last week candle? How does the picture look in such a case? You will have an outside bar having greatly negative implications.

I donot know whether you have done multitimeframe analysis and then decided to take the trade. If that is the case, then you must be taking trade on daily chart or intraday chart by looking at the weekly chart, not the otherway round.

Of couse, I have left the final decision to Saint. If he disagrees with my views, I am open to all criticisms. I could not resist myself after seeing the chart posted by you.
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

Yep on the multi time frame analysis bit.........

Answers as posted above.

Thanx RS,

Saint

 

[Saint]

On 11/3/2008, there is pivot high at 588.9. Am I correct or not. If I am correct, then we should wait for that.

Spot on,LV......Except if we get a pivot high lower than that and a higher pivot low as well as set up in last two days.

But yes when these posts were posted,last 2 days candles' were not available,and entry would have been higher than 588.9

Saint

 

[Saint]

Hi

RSI ... my veiw please comment

according to Saints method we take two time frame into consideration like if we want to trade daily we take weekly chart as guidance .... in this case if prabhjeetrana want to trade in weekly chart then he has to wait for weekly close, again before that we should have monthly trend in upward direction if we want to take a long call on weekly chart but iin this case i can get data only from feb ... may be new company listed in that month

so in my veiw dont we have too litle data as we can not say whether we are in monthly uptrend or not ?

please correct me if i m wrong

waiting reply

Regards
Satya

Yep,Satya too little data,for a clear cut reply...........but the buy over today's bar means we are in a daily uptrend,that's for sure.......Are we in a weekly uptrend,we have to wait and watch.......The risk is not too much anyway.....For now all you have clearly is the daily,and a high over this pivot signifies that it just went into an uptrend.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Dj Sinha and RSI, both your comments are welcome.As pointed out rightly by you RSI i am excited about the trade and there is a good reason. Although I am not as experienced as many of my trader friends here but whatever Technical analysis I have learnt tells me to buy because as far as I am concerned the bottom for this year is firmly in place at 4450 nifty levels and any dips will be buying opportunity.

I am sure Saint would like me to wait for Pivot to be taken out at 655 levels but then the qquestion of Risk/Reward remains

No question of waiting for pivot highs on the weekly to be taken out.......if we follow this style,we'd be perenially waiting ...

Saint

 

[Saint]

hi,
As the market Show , is this a sign of new rise.

Welcome,Sanjay,to Traderji!!

Saint

ps:Still a wait n watch for now......

 

[Saint]

ONMOBILE daily chart attached!

Saint

 

[Satyen]

Hi Satya

First of all, our friend prabhjeetrana has not told his method of analysis as to why he is turning bullish on Onmobile. All that he has posted is a weekly chart and there he tried to anticipate higher weekly low (than previous weekly low) and perhaps may be a higher close as well. That is why I wrote in my previous post that I donot know whether he has come to this conlusion on the basis of multi timeframe analysis. I also tried to guess his method of conclusion (if he has done such a method of multi timeframe analysis) that he should have tried to analyse weekly chart from daily and intraday charts. That is why I sounded off a warning to him in my previous post. His method of analysis was and perhaps is still unclear. If he is trying to take trade on the basis of weekly candle alone, I again warned him about some of the possible outcomes at the end of week and I tried to know whether he is prepared for such an eventuality. You cannot rule out the possibility told by me in the last post. The whole confusion arose because we do not know why our friend has turned bullish on a candle which is not closed yet.

You are absolutely right when you point out that we will have to look at monthly charts for taking trades on weekly charts and you are again 100% correct when you say that as far as Onmobile chart is concerned, we do not have sufficient number of monthly candles to make analysis in the first place.

My sincere advice is never try to out smart the market. If one tries that market will prove that it is far more smarter than anybody including me and you or anyone in this forum. Let the market show the direction. Let it show the path of least resistance. Then we follow that path.

I hate to quote my own post as it would amount to blowing my own trumpet. But still to avoid unnecessary repetition, I also request you read my earlier reply to amit in this thread, which was made this morning. Read second portion of my post, which was specifically quoted by Saint in approval. This is my personal request to my friend prabhjeetrana also. Read that second part and again compare it with the possible outcome at the end of week postulated by me in my previous post.

Thank you RSI

Regards
Satya

 

[Satyen]

Yep,Satya too little data,for a clear cut reply...........but the buy over today's bar means we are in a daily uptrend,that's for sure.......Are we in a weekly uptrend,we have to wait and watch.......The risk is not too much anyway.....For now all you have clearly is the daily,and a high over this pivot signifies that it just went into an uptrend.

Saint

Thank you verymuch Saint

Regards
Satya

 

[Prabhjeet]

Hi Prabhjeet,

So far on ONMOBILE,we have a rally the last few days,we have a weekly set up taking out the previous week's high.

Previous Pivot high on the daily=588.90

Now,do NOT wait for previous highs of the weekly to get taken out.......you have the first criteria already,weekly taking out previous high in an uptrend,now wait for the pivot to form on the daily.....you got that pivot as of yesterday and today.

The buy would be the high of today's bar,with the stop a bit below today's bar.

Saint

Thanks a million Saint, you have cleared all my doubts very well. It seems that you agree that taking out last week's high was a signal enough that the uptrend on weekly is present. So we can take an entry on the basis of Daily charts, that allows us to have a entry before masses will agree with the trend and will have to pay high premium for late entry. It is ok with me to anticipate a move and if that does not develop then i am ready to be stopped at 455 stoploss.

I think Saint has made it very clear that we can anticiapte the trade and positions should be taken accordingly.

BTW, i am sorry that I didnt make it clear which time frame i am trading. Well, I am looking to trade daily charts based on weekly charts.

Regards

 

[Saint]

Thanks a million Saint, you have cleared all my doubts very well. It seems that you agree that taking out last week's high was a signal enough that the uptrend on weekly is present. So we can take an entry on the basis of Daily charts, that allows us to have a entry before masses will agree with the trend and will have to pay high premium for late entry. It is ok with me to anticipate a move and if that does not develop then i am ready to be stopped at 455 stoploss.

I think Saint has made it very clear that we can anticiapte the trade and positions should be taken accordingly.

BTW, i am sorry that I didnt make it clear which time frame i am trading. Well, I am looking to trade daily charts based on weekly charts.

Regards

You are not anticipating a move...........you are letting it happen before you slide in.Anticipating is when you have a weekly downtrend,a daily downtrend and you think "Yep,we have had this one up day,this is the bottom,the numbers say so,my broker and my astrologer concur on that one...."

In this case,you have a criteria for an entry.......you will enter only in an uptrend,and therefore once pivots are in line,you are in.You are buying over a pivot high with the stop in a previous pivot low on the daily charts.....you are therefore staying clear of thegreat evil of anticipation,and trying to go with the flow.

In this case,the weekly may go on to new highs,may be not,is this an uptrend or a dntrend,once again,not enough data.......what you are doing is you are trading this off the daily charts and getting out if pivots break,or if initial stops are taken out.

And as traders,we play probabilities.......So,we buy the high of yesterday,stop below the low of yesterday,and if stopped out,well,all part of trading,we move on........Just like the tiger that stalked and stalked and pounced at an opportune moment,and yet the deer managed to escape......well,he comes back,and gets ready to pounce on another one.

If we had enough data,and the weekly was in a dntrend,would we have taken this trade?Yes,but not as a position trade...

Saint