TT/Ashu/Cubt,
Am looking at crude charts EOD and intraday to understand how to trade it better. Appreciate your experience and observations as well - Here's mine :
•Crude prices generally tend to trend EOD.
•Even if EOD crude is trending, intraday, it is tends to fallback to support (100%), or retrace 50-62-78% from its move.
•Ideally, a fall intraday while the EOD trend is higher, provides MANY good entry levels.
•The best entry price for crude is at retracement levels, rather than buying high to have a trade stopped out.
•Each 1% move represents approx. 6K.
•Its possible that a 6K profit in crude can turn into a 6K loss – hence it is ideal to trail entry with SL – so as to not give away large part of the profit or turn a profitable trade into a loss.
•IF PRICES ARE TRENDING HIGHER EOD, SHORTING BASIS 30M or 60M CHART SIGNAL (OR VICE VERSA) IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS IT IS NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE.
•If crude prices are at blue skies on 20-30 Day (1 month calendar) 30M Chart – a momentum/gap up in price can be expected.
•If crude is trading near 20-30Day high, it’s important to be alert trading at this level – or to ensure one is not on the wrong side of the trade.
•Crude can runup 8-10-12% if at blue sky level in a day or two, the impact of which can be 60K+- to trading equity if holding one lot.
•Ideally, its better to trade one lot only till one is confident of the nuances of trading crude.
•The key events influencing crude prices are – supply, inventory & production data.
•Initially atleast, one should avoid holding more than one position in crude or when numbers related to crude are expected to be released – unless one is sure of one’s position, as prices can swing in either direction.
•Crude prices are based largely on international prices as well as USDINR rate.
•Following the above will give an idea of the trend in crude prices.
•International crude prices are also affected by geo-political news, and can swing wildly basis news or geo-political tension.
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