Swing Bank Nifty - With Backtested report !
- Thread starter areebs
- Start date
Net + 1400 Profit Points in 1 month of trading from 4th May 2010 to 2nd June 2010. That is almost 22 trading days.
All the details of the live trades have been updated in this thread from the 1st page till this one.
Even if we consider 50% of the profit of this month(1400 points) as average profit per month(700 points) then the summary is mentioned below :
According to me margin for 1 lot Banknifty = Rs 120000
Profit of 700 points x 25 = Rs 17500
% Profit on the capital = 14.6 % per month.
In the backtest report that I have uploaded in the 1st thread also shows an average of 800 points/month,still I have taken 700 points here.
As the Profits are added in the Capital in the coming months the cummalative profits will obviously be much more than this.
After looking at the above details and also the live calls and the backtest reports many people might still think it all seems very good and hence cannot be true or wont last for long.That is the reason i have posted the live calls for 1 month to show how it works in realtime.
I simply believe let the system work as it does ,dont let your emotions clash with the system, if your afraid of losing your capital then as I mentioned in one of my earlier posts , Trade with less or no margin.
Like even if I trade with 50% margin which is Rs 120000 and In the worst case ever if I suffer a trading position loss of -1000 points , I would lose only 20% of my capital which I guess is quiet decent enough considering its the worst case scenario.
So I would like to say, if you people have discovered any system which has given consistent profits in the past(atleast 2 years) and is working well but fear is not allowing you to trade , then dont trade with margin which would ensure you would lose very little as compared to the gain.This doesnot apply only to my system but to all profitable systems available.
Happy trading to all ! :thumb:
All the details of the live trades have been updated in this thread from the 1st page till this one.
Even if we consider 50% of the profit of this month(1400 points) as average profit per month(700 points) then the summary is mentioned below :
According to me margin for 1 lot Banknifty = Rs 120000
Profit of 700 points x 25 = Rs 17500
% Profit on the capital = 14.6 % per month.
In the backtest report that I have uploaded in the 1st thread also shows an average of 800 points/month,still I have taken 700 points here.
As the Profits are added in the Capital in the coming months the cummalative profits will obviously be much more than this.
After looking at the above details and also the live calls and the backtest reports many people might still think it all seems very good and hence cannot be true or wont last for long.That is the reason i have posted the live calls for 1 month to show how it works in realtime.
I simply believe let the system work as it does ,dont let your emotions clash with the system, if your afraid of losing your capital then as I mentioned in one of my earlier posts , Trade with less or no margin.
Like even if I trade with 50% margin which is Rs 120000 and In the worst case ever if I suffer a trading position loss of -1000 points , I would lose only 20% of my capital which I guess is quiet decent enough considering its the worst case scenario.
So I would like to say, if you people have discovered any system which has given consistent profits in the past(atleast 2 years) and is working well but fear is not allowing you to trade , then dont trade with margin which would ensure you would lose very little as compared to the gain.This doesnot apply only to my system but to all profitable systems available.
Happy trading to all ! :thumb:
Dear Areebs,
Your posts are interesting & I must thank you for efforts put in.
However while reviewing your backtested results, I could not understand two things...
1. Why you number of shares are different per trade? How do you determine or inform guys who are following your calls on this post?
2. You have not considered brokerage & other expenses? As number of trades are many, this makes a significant portion of profits.
Awaiting your answers.. in the meantime I'll keep reviewing this further. thank you.
Regards,
Your posts are interesting & I must thank you for efforts put in.
However while reviewing your backtested results, I could not understand two things...
1. Why you number of shares are different per trade? How do you determine or inform guys who are following your calls on this post?
2. You have not considered brokerage & other expenses? As number of trades are many, this makes a significant portion of profits.
Awaiting your answers.. in the meantime I'll keep reviewing this further. thank you.
Regards,
Firstly thanks for showing interest in this thread and the calls.
The answer to your queries are mentioned below :
1.Number of Lots(shares) are different due to the Margin requirement as per the system and also the Capital available.For instance the System started with 3 lots(150) in 2007 and as the Profits were added to the Orignal Capital ,the Lots traded were increased accordingly.
I did not understand the 2nd part of your question.From what I understood the answer is that I post the live calls here and whoever likes to trade it can do it.I donot know how many people here have traded the calls.I am posting the calls here not only for people to trade but more importantly to make all understand how the calls work in real markets,as there are many people who donot go by the backtest reports.
2.The reason I have not considered brokerage is because every one doesnot pay the same to their brokers.
I pay Rs 0.02% as Brokerage and all other taxes included on the Trade value.
For eg.
Buy Bank Nifty at 9500 - Brokerage+Tax = 9500x0.02% = 1.9 points.
Sell Bank Nifty at 9550 - Brokerage+Tax = 9550x0.02% = 1.9 points.
So a total of 3.8 points per trade is my Brokerage+Taxes when BankNifty is 9500.
Now In my Backtest report :
Total Trades = 1353 .
If you calculate the Average Brokerage+Tax comes to 3 Points per trade as the Bank Nifty was between a range of 9800-4000.
Brokerage+Tax = 1353 x 3 = 4059 points.
Total Profit Points(Jan 07-Apr10) = 31954 points
Less Brokerage + Tax = - 4059 points.
Net Points(After Brokerage+Tax) = 27895 points.
Average Per month(After Brokerage+Tax) = 697 points/month.
I hope all your queries are solved .
The answer to your queries are mentioned below :
1.Number of Lots(shares) are different due to the Margin requirement as per the system and also the Capital available.For instance the System started with 3 lots(150) in 2007 and as the Profits were added to the Orignal Capital ,the Lots traded were increased accordingly.
I did not understand the 2nd part of your question.From what I understood the answer is that I post the live calls here and whoever likes to trade it can do it.I donot know how many people here have traded the calls.I am posting the calls here not only for people to trade but more importantly to make all understand how the calls work in real markets,as there are many people who donot go by the backtest reports.
2.The reason I have not considered brokerage is because every one doesnot pay the same to their brokers.
I pay Rs 0.02% as Brokerage and all other taxes included on the Trade value.
For eg.
Buy Bank Nifty at 9500 - Brokerage+Tax = 9500x0.02% = 1.9 points.
Sell Bank Nifty at 9550 - Brokerage+Tax = 9550x0.02% = 1.9 points.
So a total of 3.8 points per trade is my Brokerage+Taxes when BankNifty is 9500.
Now In my Backtest report :
Total Trades = 1353 .
If you calculate the Average Brokerage+Tax comes to 3 Points per trade as the Bank Nifty was between a range of 9800-4000.
Brokerage+Tax = 1353 x 3 = 4059 points.
Total Profit Points(Jan 07-Apr10) = 31954 points
Less Brokerage + Tax = - 4059 points.
Net Points(After Brokerage+Tax) = 27895 points.
Average Per month(After Brokerage+Tax) = 697 points/month.
I hope all your queries are solved .
Areeb,
I have seen your system results and your discussions with AW10. I just wanted to write a few things to you regarding what I think of your results in general.
Before getting into the details, let me tell you, whatever you have made (whether good or bad) will surely add to your trading learning curve. Hence, for me, even if your system performs good or bad, the entire procedure should contribute in your development as a trader.
Now getting to the specifics. By the look of it, you are using a moving average system on a smaller time frame, which is forcing you in and out so often. The profits are looking good because you are always in the market and hence you are able to reverse positions and enter on the next signal. Hope you have not optimized your system.
TA books and theories are filled with theories where MA systems are not useful and which give many whipsaws. Well, I do like to look at R/R and Winning trade, but I feel ultimately you need to have that system psychology to make that particular system work. For those who think MA systems are useless, I'd like to invite them to back test these systems on historical data available. Mostly, they will outperform the Buy and Hold approach if certain conditions are included with such systems. The major hurdle in executing this system is not its nature of working, but it is it's nature of executing. What I mean is that a MA system will give series of losses before giving the right kind of move. Now in hindsight it is easy for anyone to see that this is as easy as it gets. Well, if it really were, then all the fund managers are duds to not use this. The reason why this is not used is because of the draw downs, the poor winning percentage, avg profit/loss % and etc. The major reason why this is not used is because 1 in a 10000 trader has the patience to carry on in drawdowns.
I don't want to comment on your system specifics and hence will not get into it. I would ask you to read Trading system and method on system testing and would then ask you to review your results. Also, I would seriously ask you to review what AW10 has written regarding your system. Those are valid points.
In conclusion, I wish you all the best and hope you will make efforts to improve your system going ahead.
P.S. I have assumed that you have used a MA system. If not, even then, the underlying message remains valid.
Tc
I have seen your system results and your discussions with AW10. I just wanted to write a few things to you regarding what I think of your results in general.
Before getting into the details, let me tell you, whatever you have made (whether good or bad) will surely add to your trading learning curve. Hence, for me, even if your system performs good or bad, the entire procedure should contribute in your development as a trader.
Now getting to the specifics. By the look of it, you are using a moving average system on a smaller time frame, which is forcing you in and out so often. The profits are looking good because you are always in the market and hence you are able to reverse positions and enter on the next signal. Hope you have not optimized your system.
TA books and theories are filled with theories where MA systems are not useful and which give many whipsaws. Well, I do like to look at R/R and Winning trade, but I feel ultimately you need to have that system psychology to make that particular system work. For those who think MA systems are useless, I'd like to invite them to back test these systems on historical data available. Mostly, they will outperform the Buy and Hold approach if certain conditions are included with such systems. The major hurdle in executing this system is not its nature of working, but it is it's nature of executing. What I mean is that a MA system will give series of losses before giving the right kind of move. Now in hindsight it is easy for anyone to see that this is as easy as it gets. Well, if it really were, then all the fund managers are duds to not use this. The reason why this is not used is because of the draw downs, the poor winning percentage, avg profit/loss % and etc. The major reason why this is not used is because 1 in a 10000 trader has the patience to carry on in drawdowns.
I don't want to comment on your system specifics and hence will not get into it. I would ask you to read Trading system and method on system testing and would then ask you to review your results. Also, I would seriously ask you to review what AW10 has written regarding your system. Those are valid points.
In conclusion, I wish you all the best and hope you will make efforts to improve your system going ahead.
P.S. I have assumed that you have used a MA system. If not, even then, the underlying message remains valid.
Tc
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