Some of my forecasts

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Ichimoku XIII--kumo


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Here's the 5-min for the GBP/CAD. There was some discussion about intraday setups, so I am posting a 5-min chart.
I'll get to my point, but for now notice on this 5-min chart everything looks the same as it does on a 4-hour, daily, or weekly chart. Candles go up and down passes through the cloud, and typical supports and resistances are noticeable. The only difference is the candles represent a different period of time.
This is why I encourage all comments. After the comment, it allows me to expound on it, and hopefully others are able to glean something from it.

I've mentioned many times how the rule is for a candle to pass through one end of the cloud, then at least hit the other side. WE see that happening on the downtrend and even continued moving south, and then in an uptrend, and in that case, movement was contained just on the other side of the cloud.
Why would this be so predictable? In other words how do we know with relative certainty that when a candle enters the cloud at one end, it will at least hit the other end?
Again, we are talking about the mean. One end is an average of the high and low of the last 52 candles. The other end is a simple average of the tenken and kijun, and it is plotted 26 candles in advance of the last measured candle. Inside the cloud represents the ultimate in the markets balance and equilibrium. Once the candle finds it way outside the cloud it has broken loose of the equilibrium. In essence, as traders we are really looking for opportunities that will present itself outside the markets balance. As traders, we don't like equilibrium. Many times we close a trade when the candle hits the top or bottom of the cloud as the candle approaches it from the outside. Once inside the equilibrium zone, namely the cloud, things aren't nearly as predictable nor do they move with the same one way conviction.
As we already studied, price action is predictable when it is in an extreme area relative to the cloud. Another thing that is predictable is, initially, the cloud will act as support or resistance on the initial hit.
 

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This picture is showing yet another way to use the ichimoku. Notice the western most peak, along with its strong spike. Look further to the west and notice the cloud peak. You might think, "But that is in the past." Exactly, but it is still a measure of the mean in terms of the maximum peak the market will go. Once the reversal happens it tends to be a direct path, and that's what happened here. Notice how the correction made it to the part the cloud leveled. The other obvious part is how far above the cloud the candle had risen. The drop was originally contained by the top. Price action went through the cloud, then contained by the bottom.

Getting back to the tenken and kijun, notice on the initial drop before the correction it was contained by a straight line kijun, and then the move back north was contained by the tenken. The pair was on its way to the cloud only after it finally broke through the kijun.
 
Ichimoku XIV--kumo


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Seeing the good people here at "Some of my forecasts" are used to live forecasting--lol, I better keep up the reputation.

This is a chart of the daily of the CAD/JPY. The pair has officially made it on top of the daily cloud. We will combine much of what we have learned up to this point. The tenken and kijun are heading east below the cloud. This means there are going to be limitations on just how high it is going to go. While it waits for the tenken and kijun to catch up, the level top of the cloud at 75.89 should be containment as it heads higher R is expected at the recent leveling of the cloud in the past at 77.41.
 
My live call went bad. Suffering from a damaged ego more than anything. Trade was stopped out at breakeven.
I'm still following this market. I'll look for an entry around .9636. I'm a little uncomfortable to go long when the candles are floating this high above the cloud.




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Okay, here it is. A live intraday call using exclusively ichimoku. The tenken is bearing down hard on this hourly. By the time NY is finished, the kijun is also going to take a strong dip, and by the beginning of London, it will be bidding the cloud good riddance.
Having said all that, and with the recent break of the cloud, look for the highest bottom as seen in the future at .8503 to contain for a strong bear day on Wednesday. That .9503 level is only 15 pips from the current level.

Keep in mind, the view on this hourly chart was still taking into account the views as per what we already analyzed concerning the 4-hour, daily, and weekly.
 

LivetoTrade

Well-Known Member
Sir, your views on Eur/Jpy please.

The market had a target in the 100's for the pair, and this talk was happening for a few months now.

Not sure if it was you, but I also read that around 100.8 would be a good support for the pair.

Does it seem to have more downside?
 
LTT, make no mistake about it, my views have been for quite awhile we would see a drop to at least the low 90.00's. That MT--LT.
The 100.80 level is only an interim support which is where price is currently camped at. A new low since December 2000 was just created for the pair just a few minutes ago. ST, strong R should now be seen at 101.88.


Sir, your views on Eur/Jpy please.

The market had a target in the 100's for the pair, and this talk was happening for a few months now.

Not sure if it was you, but I also read that around 100.8 would be a good support for the pair.

Does it seem to have more downside?
 
I'm going to have to put the ichimoku series on hold until the new year starts. I'm preparing for the EOY chart party. When the yearlies hit, there is going to be about 45 markets included. The weeklies will be pretty much standard, along with the usual requests.

As long as I can get the data for the Tata series RI and SBI, they will also be included in the yearlies. Nifty, of course, will be there, along with DIJA, gold, silver, Crude Oil, DAX, and some others. Oh yea, the 28 forex pairs are included.
 

LivetoTrade

Well-Known Member
LTT, make no mistake about it, my views have been for quite awhile we would see a drop to at least the low 90.00's. That MT--LT.
The 100.80 level is only an interim support which is where price is currently camped at. A new low since December 2000 was just created for the pair just a few minutes ago. ST, strong R should now be seen at 101.88.
Above the R area of 100.88, where can the ST bounce take us?

Or, in other words, where can we expect the MT R to reside - Weekly Tenkan / Monthly Tenkan ?
 

LivetoTrade

Well-Known Member
I'm going to have to put the ichimoku series on hold until the new year starts. I'm preparing for the EOY chart party. When the yearlies hit, there is going to be about 45 markets included. The weeklies will be pretty much standard, along with the usual requests.

As long as I can get the data for the Tata series RI and SBI, they will also be included in the yearlies. Nifty, of course, will be there, along with DIJA, gold, silver, Crude Oil, DAX, and some others. Oh yea, the 28 forex pairs are included.
Can you discuss with the Moderators to combine all your posts on the Ichimoku?

Would make continuous reading a lot easier to understand.

Now, with so many posts in-between, one needs to search :)
 
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