Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Forexworld, the current move south for the pair could not have happened at a better time. We need to get to 1.3825 to meet minimum requirements for the corrective move back to the TL. This way next week will be ready to head north from the beginning.
I've got 1.3946 as R on the daily. Regardless, that point has not been hit. It needs to be hit before we can have a more sure reversal. Also, keep your eye on 1.3973 as that mark completes the yearly cycle within the trend. The cloud is very thin, so we could get a move to 1.4020.

If we get back to 1.3815, I'll be tempted to enter long and hold over the weekend.

Yes I had been wondering how come you are so sure that the upper trend line will break where the daily bottom cloud was acting as resistance and a daily strong R seen at 1.3935 , I was hoping for it to break the bottom ! -lol all thanks to you mr paul or I would have shorted it if I didn't read your posts

 

[4xpipcounter]

Forexworld, it is all the experience. What I mean is these last 7 years have been immersed into not only a job, but a hobby. It has been study, study, study. As I say, there are no degrees at Forex University, just constant learning. That may be a cliche I developed, but I live it.

I am not knocking how anyone uses the ichimoku cloud, but it is more versatile than the way most use it. It is more versatile than my ichi mentor uses it. I took what I learned from him and added to that knowledge to make for a more outstanding trading plan. The TL's added to the confluence of what I had seen in the overall picture.

Thank you Mr Paul, Tell me something how does it feel like playing charts? is it like taking a candy from a baby?-lol I use the same analysis as you do but why is it hard for me why I coudn't say that it will break above ? Other people using ichimoku wait for some breakouts or Tk crossover to signal them for entry but you are an exception person, hats off dealing everything in advance and off for a trip- lol

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/USD follow up

Thank-you Parv, and you are welcome.

This was a very good one!

Thanks a lot
Parv

 

[forexworld]

Forexworld, the current move south for the pair could not have happened at a better time. We need to get to 1.3825 to meet minimum requirements for the corrective move back to the TL. This way next week will be ready to head north from the beginning.
I've got 1.3946 as R on the daily. Regardless, that point has not been hit. It needs to be hit before we can have a more sure reversal. Also, keep your eye on 1.3973 as that mark completes the yearly cycle within the trend. The cloud is very thin, so we could get a move to 1.4020.

If we get back to 1.3815, I'll be tempted to enter long and hold over the weekend.

Hi Mr Paul,you hit the bull's eye again ! We already got back to 1.3821 which was the correction back to the trend line ! I m glad everything is working out so well btw is the h4 the most convenient time frame to draw the trend lines and expect for such type of corrections?

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Forexworld, thank-you.
The chart will show the daily has not become an issue which is why no reference has been made to the daily TL. Once we get a close under it, then it will mark the beginning of the trip back to the 1.3500's, at least.
The smaller the TF, the more it will get referred to. The larger the TF the more longer term implications that are involved.

The EUR/USD ended the week at the peak of the bounce from the 4-hour TL. What this means is the conditions for that TL have been satisfied, and so the black TL you see currently on this chart will be redrawn to reflect an uptrend. As we get close to the bottom of the cloud, then what we would look for is the initial break of the new UP TL, then the correction, then jump on board for the hopeful break of the daily TL.

In terms of the clouds, what we are waiting on is a hit of the bottom of the daily, which means the candles would drift high above the 4-hour, then reverse for some momentum to break the TK, then get a consolidative move between the TK and the top of the cloud, then look for a momentous move into the cloud.

Everything has a nice predictable, cyclical flow.

BTW, if we were daytrading or scalping, we would be referring to all the above on a daily basis as we would be looking at the 5-min, 15-min and hourly. We would also be using the daily and 4-hour S&R's. All these cyclical predicable flows all happen within the context of the individual TF's. All this forms a wonderful landscape of predictable market movement.

This overall landscape can be viewed by specializing in one market. I tend to get married to one market when I have the ability to hedge, such as the case with one of my accounts.

Hi Mr Paul,you hit the bull's eye again ! We already got back to 1.3821 which was the correction back to the trend line ! I m glad everything is working out so well btw is the h4 the most convenient time frame to draw the trend lines and expect for such type of corrections?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Review--101611

EUR/USD: The WR1 is 1.4015. From the recent dip the annual cycle range will take us to 1.3972. Considering the MT forecast, these numbers are suggesting, especially the former, this pair is in for a reversal, and its imminent. Currently, there is still plenty of momentum to keep pushing the pair north.

The pair did push higher but is struggling at the current level as the peak was 1.3913

USD/JPY: This pair has finally hit a decision point. The best case scenario is still to see a break north in order to build up momentum for the eventual ride deeper south. A weekly close above 78.07 suggests we are headed back to the 80.00s.

The bottom of the daily cloud, once again, contained for a hard bounce as the peak was 77.44 and then reversed to an all-time low at 75.79.

GBP/USD: There is still plenty of room and momentum to head further north. The weekly tenken at 1.5942 and the weekly kijun at 1.6006 are both cluster events, and the latter will also be a decision point. A weekly close above it, and we are headed back to the 1.6200s.

The former proved to be formidable, but the pair made it on the other side of it on Friday as it peaked at 1.5971.

USD/CHF: Have you heard about me talking about this pair lately? Circa .8812 will be strong S. If broken on the 1st try, then it will act like dynamite to thrust the pair to .8512. Most likely, .8190 will also be hit.

It took all week to get there, but the pair made it to the dip at .8804.

EUR/CHF: This pair is biding time for its breakout. The bottom of the weekly cloud is 1.2964. Even though this market will make it there, eventually, it is doubtful it will make it there on this leg. The reversal figures to be very strong. Minimum downside objective is 1.1716, which is the weekly tenken, and the kijun at 1.1518. There are no overwhelming indications of a directional path for this week, even though it is not out of the question to see another leg north this week, but do not count on it.

The reversal may have begun, as the pair has shown a strong weekly reversal candle, even though movements were volatile. The dip was 1.2204

AUD/USD: The top of the daily cloud at 1.0501 is just as doable as the bottom because it is so thin. The WR1 is 1.0510, so that area makes a nice confluence to signal a possible reversal.

This pair ended the week at the peak, 1,0375, as it went sideways in an effort to make the climb further.

USD/CAD: The recent surge to the 1.06s is starting to look as if it is a MT broad range consolidated move since the break of the daily TL at .9593. If that is the case, then this down move still has a ways to go. For now, I am looking for a move to the weekly kijun at 1.0031, and then the bottom of the cloud at .9848. The latter would signal a reversal or a another consolidated move that will bring the drop below .9593. The WS1 and WS2 are 1.0017 and .9937, respectively. It appears as if price action will give both of them a visit this week.

We came 10 pips from the weekly kijun, as the dip was 1.0041.

NZD/USD: There is solid R at .8152, which is the combination of the weekly TL and the kijun. Add to that my WR1 at .8152. If that area is broken convincingly, and then there will be a very strong move to the bottom of the weekly cloud at .8304, after taking out the WR2 at .8260 along the way. The bottom of the cloud contains for another strong reversal if the .8154 area does not hold.

The pair went sideways, as it consolidated under the aforementioned level, as the peak was .8064.

EUR/GBP: There is lots of R between .8805 and .8825, if that area does not contain, then .8861 will for a strong move back to the DOWN.

The peak was .8799 on Monday, just 6 pips from the aforementioned level, and then reversed to the dip at .8668.

EUR/JPY: After the strong move last week, this pair is getting the squeeze put on it. Unlike many fresh clouds that contain, because of the thinness and the timeliness by which it was approached, this one may not. We will possibly see a move to the current cloud top at 108.66, then get a bounce back to 106.65, and then a move to the top of the daily cloud at 110.80, which matches nicely with the DOWN TL on the weekly. If this consolidation takes long, then the final move could be limited to 108.71, as the cloud is descending quickly. The weekly levels that should be hit are 108.51, WR1 and the WS1 at 105.86.

The sideways move was a little premature as the peak was 107.66 on Monday, then reversed to the dip at 104.75 on Tuesday, then went sideways the rest of the week.

GBP/JPY: Strong momentum indicates that the WR2 at 124.05 and the WR3 at 125.67 should be on the radar this week. Watch for reaction at the latter. If price starts getting comfortable at that level, then we should see a move to the bottom of the weekly cloud at 131.35.

I was wrong concerning the strong northward momentum as the peak was 122.60, and the dip was 119.95.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Like last week, all the reviews should have been a different color, in this case, orange. Once again, I hope they still make for easy reading.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weeklies--commodities, etc--102311

Gold 1734.16 1691.91 1666.45 1615.98 1590.95 -1547.84
Silver 34.16 32.88 32.10 30.59 29.85 -28.50
Crude Oil 93.32 90.75 89.20 86.15 84.65 -81.98
DJIA 12347.39 12102.75 11955.37 11666.10 11524.20 -11268.61

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly S&R's--102311

EUR/USD 1.4158 1.4037 1.3964 1.3819 1.3747 -1.3624
usd/jpy 77.92 77.17 76.71 75.81 75.35 -74.60
gbp/usd 1.6295 1.6137 1.6041 1.5852 1.5758 -1.5597
usd/chf 0.9100 0.8974 0.8898 0.8746 0.8670 -0.8544
eur/chf 1.2523 1.2402 1.2329 1.2183 1.2110 -1.1989
aud/usd 1.0641 1.0520 1.0448 1.0304 1.0233 -1.0109
usd/cad 1.0282 1.0182 1.0122 1.0000 0.9939 -0.9840
nzd/usd 0.8240 0.8144 0.8086 0.7971 0.7914 -0.7816
eur/gbp 0.8834 0.8775 0.8740 0.8670 0.8635 -0.8576
eur/jpy 108.92 107.59 106.78 105.18 104.38 -103.04
gbp/jpy 124.24 123.02 122.28 120.82 120.09 -118.86

 

[forexworld]

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Forexworld, thank-you.
The chart will show the daily has not become an issue which is why no reference has been made to the daily TL. Once we get a close under it, then it will mark the beginning of the trip back to the 1.3500's, at least.
The smaller the TF, the more it will get referred to. The larger the TF the more longer term implications that are involved.

The EUR/USD ended the week at the peak of the bounce from the 4-hour TL. What this means is the conditions for that TL have been satisfied, and so the black TL you see currently on this chart will be redrawn to reflect an uptrend. As we get close to the bottom of the cloud, then what we would look for is the initial break of the new UP TL, then the correction, then jump on board for the hopeful break of the daily TL.

In terms of the clouds, what we are waiting on is a hit of the bottom of the daily, which means the candles would drift high above the 4-hour, then reverse for some momentum to break the TK, then get a consolidative move between the TK and the top of the cloud, then look for a momentous move into the cloud.

Everything has a nice predictable, cyclical flow.

BTW, if we were daytrading or scalping, we would be referring to all the above on a daily basis as we would be looking at the 5-min, 15-min and hourly. We would also be using the daily and 4-hour S&R's. All these cyclical predicable flows all happen within the context of the individual TF's. All this forms a wonderful landscape of predictable market movement.

This overall landscape can be viewed by specializing in one market. I tend to get married to one market when I have the ability to hedge, such as the case with one of my accounts.

Mr paul Thanks, trend lines are so confusing if it is required to draw them on each time frame! btw the black trend line will be -re drawn? that will depend on how far the markets goes north before right? as well as on the h4 currently it looks like the Tk has diverged sitting on the top of the cloud! it more looks like a crossover !