Reminiscences of a trade-learner , journey to become a PRO

[oilman5]

Some truth to novice
.............................................
1] knowledge is very powerful thing, RIGHT knowlege with experience are more.U reqd inbuilt discipline, right knowledge and patience ,even before starting career as trader.within 3yr, if u can not break even, its better to quit.
2] Turning pt trade gives big money, learn it.(ANTICIPATORY TREND CHANGE PT,
say elliot target, is an anticipatory value).Making money by following trend is myth.
When trend change starts earliest, is actually counter trend , money lies here, because so called TA, practisioners understand after6-7% move is over, thats time i derisk by selling half, in volatile market ,fully i sell as i dont know ,what may happen tomorrow.
Higher frame is nothing but weekly chart in trend,............so when pull back occurs to std support zone/fib value take position with day trade.
Pullback another technique, its validity in higher timeframe,.......may allow u trade in lower time frame.
3] Big money is not by entry,nor by exit, but from excellent money management & position size.news is a trap in india, use it.
moneyflow anticipation for future, there r various clue, where FII actually buy/sell.....normally its against media publication,........most cool trader knows it,after good result ........price normally reacts as FI books profit.
If u see , in detail , quarterly result publication VISAVIS........delivery volume at NSE , u can see urself ,relation of actually buying or DISTRIBUTION.
4]orderflow concept is very imp for intraday trader-- hidden order u want to see.
Its the real money ,when it shall come or get out................before others ,u have to know and act.
5] Unless u mastered art of survival (stop management, not to enter trade when greedy,to enter trade when fearful)...u should not play BIG.Pl understand...........play small & master them, then play big bet
6] TA /FA useful.........if u know to use it, but not in conventional way
Example..........at imp upmarket , use good news/result to book profit.
Use 15min break out for trade entry for 1 day hold trade, with 1-2% target
7] Never learn from finance industry , how to trade,......learn finance/marketing from them.Learn ta from ta practicioner,learn FA from fund manager,how to value a stock from IB(investment banker)............but never, i repeat NEVER LEARN trading from them,.......they r all failed trader.
Here even some good trader in personal level helps/teaches approach them.Trading can be learnt from only professional /successful trader,yes.......u reqd mentor........a must for trade learner/just like driving school( self knock can teach ,but that is hard way to learn).....a popular writer from Pune, teach TA,FA combination..........but not even himself a daytrader(just u dont go to doctor for shoe repair)........some of socalled TA preacher r snake charmers.......avoid them,
8] use FA for big picture clarity,normally mentality of contrarian helps in trading.Discipline to write trade journal,.........using software to query ,conditions you to objectivity
(my biased view it takes normally 10yr to become a trader-------mentor may reduce time)
TOUGHEST THING IN TRADING IS NOT RETURN BUT CONDITIONING YOURSELF WHEN MARKET CHANGES
IN reality........ trading is at its core a self development exercise
..................................
In 1st 5yr,.......its novice game(assuming 5yr a bull bear cycle)
2nd 5yr.........seeing market , another casual+ cautious approach
3rd cycle......here actually u make money, its different for others, but repeatation for u.
4th cycle.....its catwalk , ur presence gives money, its taking laddooo from child
..............Trade as & when oppurtunity comes, dont force trade
self analysis to be a trader
1] do u believe in prediction? ur success rate
2] if u dont do prediction, how u create directional bias, what is strike rate of that tool?
3] if wrong , how quickly get out, to save money on table
4] how well u understand & have skill in any field of life
5] your ACUMEN
A simple analysis
..............................
Most of us watch CRICKET,listen to commentary,..............we think just like a batsman we can play, actually we are NOVICE, commentator r ex player, no more can play.n Test players r real pro.
Actually we dont have the capacity to play in real arena.
spectator can never be a pro. They spend money to see the match, PRO earns. Novice gives money to learn what real trading is all about.
In imagination ,we think like we r commentor, .......i would not DO that mistake in batting.
Actually there is lot of gap between , chosen player/commentator vs spectator.\
Even to get a call to select in PROBABLE...........u have to PERFORM a lot.
Reality vs illusion..............understand .
, 90 % people r not suitable for trade learning.But other 10% can learn it,simply earn to run family- 90% its dog's tail,for those 10% .........they become within short time like others, become emotional and lose.However under proper mentor , they can make sufficient moey to run 2 generation.
Trading is always uncertainity, good trader r master risk manager.
A man called,BERT at singapore,ota ........shows the imp of skill, it takes him 20yr to learn/earn from trading.so he's now millionere trader in forex.
i saw ,not to trade for 3days, then on a flash quickly earn about 10000$ in forex, as he found high probable /low risk set up.
yes for av joe ,trade learning is not possible.

..................here is a professional approach to learn

Level 1
.......................
1] introduction to trading & trading foundation

here u shall understand pro vs novice,basic thinking/action difference.
2] ta- demand/supply ,candle- trend........thats all
3] trading strategy, buy low/sell high.......counter trend/break out
4] understanding pattern for long term bias, reversal /continuation & volume relation
5] Ta tools- indicator, remember they help /supporting tool
ma/macd
rsi-divergence
stockastics
atr- for stop & intraday
adx- for strngth of trend
bollinger band
...............................how create ur system
level2
................
1] fundamental analysis -economic scenario
2] future trading /short
3] FIB tool
4] evaluating a potential trade- odd enhancer
5] risk & position management
6] laws of trading
7] trader's mind -psychology
8] be a pro-pre -post market analysis
PLAN
TYPE OF TRADER
A-B-C PATTERN

APPLICATION OF TRADE PLAN ON U BASIS
.................................................. .............
A] successful traders trait
B] ur plan /routine -execution
c] game/book u play/read to IMPROVE TRADE SKILL

........................most people dream & lose money in market.
1] pro makes money -because they lose less.Novice lose because of HOPIUM
2] pro knows market prediction not possible,only high probability turning pt,he can pin point.they take position,but get out early if wrong.Novice fears ,and buy after upmove ,actually when pro r ready to book profit
3] PRO study risk/reward relationship in chart.Novice search with his greedy eye,biased to win/money........react emotionally
4] Pro get out/get in EARLY,before media hype.......novice listen to TV,act late to lose
5] pro creates a plan,then execute as per plan,with if.........then ACTION...........
NOVICE ask/think then trade,never proactive.
as a new learner,answer first why u will make money,........others shall lose against as a trader. Being a BULL u have to predict fall of BEAR,as well as CHARGE early to take credit from OTHER bulls.
Understanding SUPPORT/resistance dynamism and money flow in terms of GREED/fear ,only a baby step. then follow economic events predictives & its reaction of price in stocks/commodity.
Next learn ,higher time frame bias
If u want to technical trader/........understand which ta tool u shall master, what condition of market ,u bet in market.
Write the trade...........reason behind winner/loser,this analysis helps
let us understand a scenario.............probable RBI meet to cut interest.............
if no cut,......market drift slowly
if 25bps cut,......market move quick up, novice in BUY ,pro in sell mode.......as market reaches a strong resistance now
if 50 bps cut,.......morethan expected cut,,,,,,,,,,, so it will be decisive up ,with bottom at nifty 6000.
this way if u have to prepare scenario .so action guideline before others give money.
Which Stock?.....ofcourse the banking sector.
.............................................
From 4-5 yr regular earning from to switch to PRO level, u reqd to evaluate.........ur decision making system(how robust they r......how good ur discipline habit)
why u make money against others (ur edge)..........ur skill to play BIG on winners
................
can u predict,market in bull trend or in exhaustion mode..........if YES, big money awaits for u
Pl learn to play contrarian against news.
A big move in ONGC,brings to longterm resistance to 350, .........so short and take money in market.
remember......good news give u---------selling oppurtunity
Let us question ,very critical for a trader.........where u suit?
1] longterm player-investment type
2] aggressive trader in position
3] short term swing play
4] intra day player
..............................all have strong success , in proper market condition
........1] think long contrarian ,in big stock on big fall ,comes to enter once in 4yr cycle
2] here u play on fundamental understanding, in price chart -break out.
suit large-mid cap.
MA is good tool ,but technical stop must,use atr as sar.
3] play in counter-trend or pull back in direction of main trend with small stop,entry total position in single go,avoid news/result here.
4] intraday- based on momentum or continuation , stop .1ATR,profit 1/2 atr.........play in volatile stock ,where u know how that particular stock behave
...............ur guessing or analysis is good at market,by proven return on market...........so switch to future. On big -ive scenario ,short at resistance,with stop on 1/2 atr.
Similarly ,u strongly know imp support,ready to risk some amount..........so buy support value(call).......if expiry is atleast 10 days.when right get 6-8%,if not lose .......2% call money. If call value about 3% underwrite call.
commodity/forex ......this dont work
...............................................................................

 

[oilman5]

or new traders............

major thing for trading is TRADE PLAN.
YOU HAVE TO TRADE ,AS PER WRITTEN PLAN.
1] what type of personality.......suits for trading or not.
2] what type of market
3] understanding uncertainity & your action guideline against it.
4] momentum plan
5] swing plan
6] exit rule
7] money management strategy
8] how U define , market shall move up
9] your guideline to keep u neutral
10] strategy of learning from ur personal trade history.
Price doesn't lie. Price doesn't alibi. Price never complains and never explains. It is what it is - Bhav Bhagwan che! ...........this truth from EAGLEONE......always to be respected .
..........................................................................................
Quick thought process,flexibility ,experience r my edge;,,,,,,,,,,,,so pl get more. shall try to give CLARITY .
U can see trading zig-saw puzzle solved and elements will be shown , may not be elaborate.No knowledge gap....Order may be as perceived /at random,
but all has its relevence.
So i start NOW
INDEX
1] trading,investment vs gambling
2] why novices/ameteur fails and shall fail yr after yr ?
3] what is successful trading model
4] most imp factor YOU
5] what is market
6] what price is telling
7] Do u really know
8] a plan vs Method
9] Role of media
10] understanding financial model
11] Time and its element
12] flexibility a key tool
13] why we r born to fail /but u can convert urself successful trader
14] Commitment
15] confidence
16] Mentor vs mentee
17] value of regularity vs discipline
18] Patience
19] whether Discreationary or Mechanical
20] Problem of self sabotage
21] Envirornment
22] Economics..........the backyard for trading field
23] Equity curve.............INSA ALLAH of stoploss
24] DO i STRESSFREE ?
25] understanding EIC model
26] understanding sector model
27] Usefulness of TA
28] Creating TA model
29] A mode for searching oppurtunity
30] how to use software
31] Risk mitigation theory
32] Fitting the zig-saw puzzle

 

[oilman5]

1]trading ,investment vs gambling
..............................................
TRADING : its nothing but trade off with potential risk vs. profit dream , most novice can not visualise actual risk , so they could not a plan potential risk mitigation , and fumble before actual risk losing money. Honestly they should make only on condition understood by them, which has higher chance of happening ,at nearby support base ie. at least risk potential ,Theoritically u should plan a 15/- profit on 5/- risk. Since we can not see future ,we have to forecast ,always prudent being wrong what to be done.Uncertainity of the event , not uncertain in ACTION.
OrderFlow is to be understood to predict what comes next. Its a skill on future reading, by seeing ENOUGH past.Alternately by seeing what happening in higher time mode, similar happening on smaller timezone(BIAS). A quick study of weekly price in detail.........how it may give big picture.
IT is imp to understand least risk ,and high probability.Then understand MOMENTUM or flow.
INVESTMENT : when u have excess money,u keep in BANK,the institution lends MONEY to big houses/enterprenaurs against flow of interest.So they have to check the party ,whether business in proper shape or not(not investment apprisal report,nor broking house analyst visit).........these shrewd finance practitoners can tell/smell danger and oppurtunity, suggest some remadial to enterprenaur , .......so understand technically if they create a TRUST, floating mutual fund, complying regualations,........now utilising that info before others ..........they can take postion and sell later at tight time.Pl understand bank works on principle of interest ,paying u 7% ,taking from industry >10%............so by least risk ,if they could get higher return ........mutual fund ,backed by Banking r born.Its inside INFO (sensitive info + interpretation skill + jardon to decept others)........sole purpose to create higher return for fund.
So where is investment? ITS the inside info. One of best house .......TATA 2001-02 write off TELCO/TISCO certain loss and other financial headeque ......keeping price below 100/-.........yes creeping acquisition by none other than TATA investement and TATA sons..............only after 3-4 yr u know the fact. Again who bought TELCO 2008-9 at 250-280,and later selling around 1000/-..........yes its the big man TATA.
Have u seen the game of RELIANCE .........2 brother split drama,............and later rise of stock price some yr back? YES Reliance cap/fund manager Mr Kela........ they r buying ,when public are feeling panic.YES another great negotiator.......icici fame also dealng. Mr Kamath ,the famed officer 30/35 yr back hog limelight by giving fund to Mr D A.........yes this time its not info..........but a planned game to make money out of market.
HAVE u seen how money made..........price rigging before after buyback ?
DO u know how investment banker get the deal ...........
Yes actually Investment is nothing but a scheme of making money, mostly by some persons with contact.............sometimes understanding /visualising a situation before it happens , sometime creating it.......mostly on INSIDE info. YES if u understand macro-economics/holding some higher govt post on policy matters .......then u know before others what may happen .But ur PA made more , by dealing with cartel called OPERATOR . Yes principle is money works. SECTOR deregulation pays ,economic cycle move up/down........consumer sentiment changes .............but bet on shrewd /practical enterprenaur........his stock........u will make big money..........La Mittal.........story..........in telecom sector.
...................by the way..........theory of valuation.........all r job searchers tool, just like marketing guys' smile.
IF u doubt,..........just see where modern VC r putting money, small/medium scale industry enterprenaurs.
Again past monologue .............long days back ,a lady put a research firm in VC .........icici,..........later in 2002........ipo 440 band.............VC put it 20/-............slowly at/after ipo ........make money..........yes now its BIOCON.
Everybody knows............reliance power story of.......2008/money minting by ANIL ( if u dont, sell all share.........all holdings/u cannot live with shark............with poor knowledge..............keep money for saving a/c)
..............................
So any other HOPE ? understand BUSINESS,.........when market with big fall/ which sector r actually doing better. Simply buy big name and some growth story..............await for around 2-3 yr..................U WILL MAKE MONEY BY INVESTMENT
so understand rule and characteristic of contrarian, alternate scenario creation,media hype.
In the say of a big trainer,...............u reqd just one story/one company..........a big bet with patience , understand why u r betting...........money is yours in long run
Gambling : its nothing but what av investrader do actually:.........holding the loser. We dream /put hope after purchase .........share price shall move up,but..........so we block money and pray, yes its gambling.
I dont know, i have not read............yet i make experiment with hard earned money..........again gambling.
Trading is my passion(actually clicking /watching price move)............again gambling.
I have to ask some done .........what to do presently............gambling .
I decided to loose max 1lakh, but betting 5 lakh..........another gambling.
Selling early the winner........to get thrill of wmoney..............its also gambling
Without a plan/risk management tool/proper education coming to market/indiscipline attitude.............all r manifestation of gamble.
Pl understand here u r betting against not only shrewdest.............but against INSTITUTION , who had practised and developed the art.............atleast 50yr.
yes i gamble to satisfy my that instinct.........to get thrill/ but i know i shall lose money,..........and for making money which shall be discussed later,..........i have to invest or TRADE , never to gamble.Never fighter a fully loaded gunfighter from 25m with a bare knife in hand.
.................................................. ........
so before u become a successful player in market............pl understand the concept with clarity..........investment-trading vs gambling .Throw away gambling instinct from u,...........choose any one Trader or investor............lady luck may smile.

 

[oilman5]

2.why novices/ameteur fails and shall fail yr after yr ?
Answer : they have not Requistee /prerequistee.
why i can not live in water ? i dont have gill.
TRADE LEARNING .........reqd balanced mind..........patience to learn, may be 8-10yr of journey.
Confidence in u,but doubter at heart over situation can whirl,
Slowly you become believer in price .NO to gambling attitude
Love to adherence to discipline
Stoicism in mind........so that fear /greed has min effect
Objectivity development:
Understanding of business/economics/public sentiment
So novices start without map to reach somewhere where few people have reached.So they all r naturally absorbed in quick sand. Yes ALL. THEN some of them may reach.................no its illusion,first they have to learn TO SURVIVE.
then preferably from successful MENTOR
,always from mother of all teachers........MARKET.
Read history on how to reach treasure island'............so u reqd good navigator ,good tools to handle directional problem,dedication & confidence ,a group of searcher who shall not BETRAY U,...........yes in trading ur minds' chance of betrayal is very high.
Yes at start you are not understanding- WHAT is reqd, poor control over mind,not inbuild patient and insurmountable combination of oppurtunity/danger same time.
Variability of market condition............they can not visualise in their weirdest DREAM.

So they fail and shall fail again. IN good words of Levermore..................market shall remain as always............supplier of fools.
.................................................. .........
So u dont to be like them...........
.pl see .........1]your toolkit.
2]Understand structure of market
3] get a mentor if possible or learn from market (without repeating mistake)
4]Have a healthy optimistic view on life

(3)what is successful trading model
.................................................. .
A little bit detail may require here.
Generallisation: Some gen element
Specialization : some sp element to suit one
Simplest example : army officer selection .......pentagonal peg & 5sided hole
Requirement : sp intelligence iq 110-120
patriotism & objectivity.......good or above
Complaining attitude : nil
Execution skill ; higher , the better
Delegation : specific , not over /nor under
Have u understood i what mean to say .........clearing with written under upsc NDA/CDS and strict physical fitness (also clearing medical board).........is nothing but generalisation.But ur innert attitude as tested by SSB will decide psychologically whether u FIT in permanent commission .If intelligence high , u may get bore with ROUTINE/discipline.Complaining attitude must be NIL, otherwise u may be the trouble to the system,Delegation specific .........u must do task as a TEAM ,also to be resourceful,master leadership may create COUP, .............
Fortunately ENOUGH study and TIME spent on to find out successful trading model and its available
Core question is whether u like to be.Let us understand inherent constraint of Individual.
(Dr tharp ,Elder, Doglus ,Kiev have done good amount of RESEACH).

Jist is as under
........................
U require some inherent characteristic , and some acquired one,.........normally available with successful businessman
Some extremely balanced character.......which apparently look PARADOX ,DISCIPLINE to write and evaluate self,exceptional ability to face HUMILATION ,yet comeback attitude.
Where is the MODEL ?
Pl follow who is already successful............. 3 different characterics ........psychology -ta-fa tool may be suggested

1]must know 10+math
basic finance
balanced life
discipline
confidence (not high nor less)
perseverence
patience
writing/reading habit
indifferent to media report
self sufficient attitude
FROM MARKET
2)Whether exist trend or non trend
momentum of present move
expected reversal pt
present sentiment of bull/bear
BASIC MACRO IDEA-FA
3)Where from moneyflow is coming
CAGR of a company
understanding forward growth/future of sector
Risk from competitor
Govt uncertainity factor
Macro economy of country
consumers choice and expense power

.................................................. ..........
yes this much is reqd
..... Acquired :
Money management principle and position size
How much risk u can take without losing sleep
Network creation to get info.
De-stressing mechanism
Visualisation technique(with alternate scenario)
.................................................. .........
Apart from this believing in philosophy ....PRACTICE MAKES A MAN PERFECT
pL UNDERSTAND this 5 r to suit one ie. case specific
Many may not agree on my model theory,.........may say only ta or fa is sufficient.........i can say in my 20 yr on market.....i have seen successful trader in counting by finger..........100% return ........comes back to -30%.Even Mr R D of turtle trade-trainer fame........got out of market due to only TA model,........though acquired ALL acquired qualities.Many may use different kind of filter.........to achieve this,.........but optimum model is based on generalised + specific(acquired to suit one)
......................Only one thing presently hidden .........weightage to each of them.

u can break them first as prerequistee ..........and 2nd as REQUISTEE (to be practiced while the journey started) as per your convenience.
yes without all those characteristics also i have successful trading(in money terms with less return).
Only by seeing orderflow , quickly studying momentum of price directional move , on a known list of stock watch.........specialist jobbers made his punch on own a/c to get 0.5 % return, yes he made twice/thrice a week that right punch.....with his patience/momentum reading /first hand study year after yr before screen his edge.
I have practiced master swing with higher probability from a portfolio.......
...to bounceback play from 2nd support..........with >75% of directional accuracy.
Have seen 0 stop investor.........to get 40%av return for uncanny ability to play turnaround stock..........no it does not suit me.
A lone player with good card reader without a degree may come in market av once in 4yr cycle,...........buy index stock............and sell based on market hype........yes he was right in 1994-1999-2004- 2007.
A PROJECT MANAGER ,in market since 1984-85 has earned a lot in playing tata -reliance brothers story[as mentioned in investment].........he understood business acumen,..........so working on his forte.
yes all of these common theme..............working on own edge.
most imp factor YOU
.....................................

 

[oilman5]

4] most imp factor YOU

.....................................
know who u r...
how much time u can spend on u..
BELIVE IN REALITY ,NO WISHFUL THINKING
Ability to give up a chance even though you know you can make money is a trait you need when trading. You want to do that if the winning trade is against your methodology. Even though in short span, you might make money on a trade or two of this sort, but, overall you stand to lose more.

Do you break out in a cold at the mere thought of risking something - such as your own capital? Do you think of trading like 'gambling,' a long shot to make a million? Or can you handle risk in a disciplined fashion, knowing how much is 'too much' for both your capital and your constitution?

Trading is not for everyone. If risk makes you ill, on the one hand, or if taking a risk brings out the recklessness in you, then trading is probably not for you. But if you can handle risk with discipline, then perhaps you can find a vocation or avocation as a trader. Only you can answer that question.

After development of your interest in market..u must check whether u suit here or not.....
pentagonal peg and 5sided hole...an easy ? quick check up pt...

1]your risk profile...market risk concept
2]your fund...your plan increase it ..proper utilisation of fund,when to sit idle....when to play aggressive
3]your knowledge bank...steadily u have to increase..judicious use of it
4] understanding market shalloffer oppurtunity...patience and discipline your two weapon
5] a stable analysis power , when to play PREDICTABILITY when to
use RANDOMNESS .
after this test u have to ...say yes,to ALL....OR MODIFY YOU...
GIVE TIME IT MAY BE SOME YR, or simply quit...
indian defence dont take who not fit their criteria

So now comes your journey as trading cadet
u r lucky, if u r in trading industry.., U can make all experiment in others money
sharpening your skill without self injury. committed money here and there.
its not trading but timemanagement..and stress control
your daily routine...
how far u r discipline ..in personal life..
how far u can take stress...know your elasticity band

Your time management skill...alotted time for study
study market...
analysis for trade...
scanning of idea. based on news...
stock scanning based on chart..
plan of action what other trader may plan ..how far they follow u after entry..
what r DANGER ALERM signal.
One of the primary reasons individual traders fail is an inability to act freely and decisively.

Temperament costs investors more than ignorance
In Investment, understanding is more important than information.

Trading is a mindgame. So to a large extent your success is controlled by your beliefs and actions.
The stock market is an unusual environment.It is a pressure cooker type atmosphere, for those unfamiliar with it and it shall generate emotional and irrational behavior.
At a personal level, fear and greed are the primary emotions at work. And stress and anxiety are common issues that need to be dealt with.

Discipline is so important in trading. You need it to do the things that you have to do, even when you might not want to. Such things as analysis; risk control; money management and record keeping. All are critical and all require discipline

So fact remains.......u have to be independent........trial and tested method to fit u.....which must have +ive expectency

 

[oilman5]

5] what is market
..................................................................

Market is a place where buyers and sellers exchange their opinion and change the ownership of stock/derivatives.
So among many a players, brokers....as a community ,insist on trading,Govt to play role of regulators /specialised body like SEBI,RBI -central bank agency to handle monetory policy ,ofcourse Financial institute...MF industry/if from outside FII ;.........HNI and retailers(piggs)
3types or style is imp to understand.....
1]speculator
2] Arbitrage player
3] hedger
If one understand basic concept of financial services..........with distinct clarity , later understanding of trading shall be easy.
SPECULATOR : DIRECTIONAL PLAY .........core strength is understanding /taking action before others........take higher risk.
ARBITRAGE PLAY ; preferred by professional institution , with directional bias,if tilted towards a particular direction,cut off other leg,.......let profit run in tilting side. Also prefer to play underwriter in option.........considering novices/individuals shall make mistake most of the time.LARGELY use media in favour to destabilise public by constantly pouring with info/misinfo........confusion as a tool,.........so earn both by arbitrage,.......also if bias is created,.......naturally as INSTITUTION keep different teammembers, for buy/for sell/for risk mitigation.........but actual control in a system /very mature team.
Hedger : they r basically play safe mentality..........use a concept called insurance........mainly commodity/forex........also in very up stockmarket........used by mature institution .........spend a small amount to derisk..
Brokers want maximum entry /exit..........(ORDER PLACING BY NOVICE)
Govt in capitalism structure .......prefer distribution money to more knowledgable individual/institute........ofcourse losing should be less in %. creating dream/job oppurtunity /analyst course/financial literate,........around 5% fund distribution + tax generation
But problem starts vested interest of individual.........policy liberalisation/loan disbursement/commission in order and leaking inside info ,ofcourse by favourable judgement.........CORRUPTION is real culprit.
Have u seen ........PM saying, we earn more,.......purchase better thing..........so cost is increasing.........is the reason behind inflation,....... he creates joke out of him.
Mutual Fund or specialist in banking system.........earns by INSIDE INFO, by getting to know beforehand from company and management,........so they miscampaign toughness/volatility ..........tell u to give money to them for play.
FII is better lot.......using some method /better paid staff /meeting at analyst meet,.....ofcourse playing with proper cornering ......and better execution with software,......may get some return.
SO where u stand as an individual.....U r fighting against them, better see who r bull or bear/out of this 2 who is winning, where money is flowing , join there and make money.
Most imp : understand value of a stock firsthand...........keep a band of error for u, throw away hype factor,.........be a buyer at lower band,.........
.and always a seller at higher zone. If nothing u know,.........simply follow p/e....
..around band 15 buyzone.........around 22-24 sell as per fund manager.
Pl always watch on info,.............also learn to decipher it.THEN only come to market..
.....sit beside great player .........learn and watch his action,.........why he is getting out.
WHY at dec 08.........i investment..........a 5lakh 1 yr portfolio.........because i feel shall not fall big in 1 yr time frame.
U understand now.............luck is not mentioned in MODEL
PL understand market structure,................distribution ........accumulation.
HOW weak hand sell and feel fustrated later, make buy again at top,............because dont understand MARKET.
ITS a felicilation oppurtunity with right knowledge people.........actual success ratio 0.01 %,........yes 99.99% shall fail

 

[oilman5]

6] what price is telling
...........................................................................

Price low.........telling to buy; price high telling to sell. Problem is howmuch high is too high..........so far momentum exist,greed exists.......price shall move up.So study momentum at TOP ,to guess right side of chart.
FOR low,........unless HOPE is coming, low shall go down to further low,Saucer formation is Important.
If u know valuation, valuation + sentiment = price, Problem starts with future growth .........believe me after studying 4yr on this financial model, ithink .........its gimick to get job of analyst, to prepare buy side report.So far one is NOT in industry........his value of assumption is O.Its just like 8 yr old girl telling on childbirth & pregnency.with the same data, with similar model they spoonfeed to calculate.........with O knowledge on Enterpreneurship, comments BUSINEES HOUSE,without understanding........most business strategy r hidden from public eye. In the language of Auditor,..........its the transfer of money...decides the result/statement .........not vice versa.Corporate moral is a bookish word..........have u seen comment on phonetapping?
Its luck...........our work ethic is good,........a man Raunak.........thinks Right..........and spread knowledge.

So use all ur judgement ;......what price is telling ? simple MA 1week tells a lot.Trend VS random factor
Pl use 2MA...........suddenly u may get a BIAS,............u can decipher 3 candle.........further visibility.In top or bottom search for change.........and its probability,........in between.........only for momentum.PL use only this much for price.
Price also suggest...........presently greed driven or not. USE it.

 

[jagankris]

Dear Oilman ji,

2] Turning pt trade gives big money, learn it.(ANTICIPATORY TREND CHANGE PT,
say elliot target, is an anticipatory value).Making money by following trend is myth.
When trend change starts earliest, is actually counter trend , money lies here, because so called TA, practisioners understand after6-7% move is over, thats time i derisk by selling half, in volatile market ,fully i sell as i dont know ,what may happen tomorrow.


Is this not predicting top,bottoms ?
With a saucer formation and with out a confirmation in trend at least in 15M tf how to anticipate trend reversal ?(I don't know Elliot).

But even that takes at least 80+ points from top or bottom With respect to MA's.With trend line breaks it differs.

Is there any better ways to identify probable top/bottoms.

2) Regarding reading hidden orders - how to read that ?
Reading big orders in Tick ?
Please elaborate the above.

TIA.

 

[oilman5]

Dear Oilman ji,

2] Turning pt trade gives big money, learn it.(ANTICIPATORY TREND CHANGE PT,
say elliot target, is an anticipatory value).Making money by following trend is myth.
When trend change starts earliest, is actually counter trend , money lies here, because so called TA, practisioners understand after6-7% move is over, thats time i derisk by selling half, in volatile market ,fully i sell as i dont know ,what may happen tomorrow.


Is this not predicting top,bottoms ?
With a saucer formation and with out a confirmation in trend at least in 15M tf how to anticipate trend reversal ?(I don't know Elliot).

But even that takes at least 80+ points from top or bottom With respect to MA's.With trend line breaks it differs.

Is there any better ways to identify probable top/bottoms.

2) Regarding reading hidden orders - how to read that ?
Reading big orders in Tick ?
Please elaborate the above.

TIA.

..................................................................................
I try to answer pt by pt.
1) yes its nothing but predicting top/bottom .........with anticipatory trend analysis.
tools for it I) FIB extension
ii) Zig-zag with sysmetrical %
iii) any Elliot wave count software
followed by study of actual order flow on tick chart(hints Wednesday last half hr can say -bearish tendency for Friday-but expect 50pt Nifty fall , but seeing severity of short with 9-40am ,I was also shocked.
...........................................................
So u have to see tick chart-real time-see nifty future current month.
Any std trading platform have it.
Do anybody know reversal coming ? ..........only after seeing 2 bear fall on screen .......one can feel the pain at the start of bear move,..........so similar conditioning 3rd time onwards one can play based on hindrance.
Yes its not available in any trading books/not even in spl bear market course for pro by Hedge fund trainer.
......................for u personally one hints............do u feel bullish on 13.8.13?
Do price say that (yes I assume) Do u know orderflow tells just opposite..........AS WELL AS DIVERGENCE IS SEEN LAST 30MIN ON 13.8.13
............so next time onwards take trade against your feeling , its probably big winner.
( in a lecture on programming at CBA , I have shown an indicator which gives good signal -very accurate. student ask show it......I simply show the twigg......its popular trend signal of Bill William ,just I reverse the signal SELL instead of BUY in volatile market condition.........when he consider trend.........as per volatility it should reverse.)------some student consider it as holy grail .
U know a famed TA Mr Sandip Wagle, I have seen a shrewd trader , on his long call SHORTING on regular basis......yes he earns
Hope it helps

 

[oilman5]

7] Do u really know

Ans:This is one of the toughest topic i face. Yes unless u faced an upside move.....in which u miss ,another one u make money,similarly another downside move.........where u hold and lose , in other one u short & earn,........then comes a short /longer phase of volatilty .........u buy at top,instead of break out, market comes down........u book early loss ; similarly eager short play ,,,,,,,suddenly market take U-turn ,forcing u to short-cover;................yes U have to go through this, atleast 2 bull/bear cycle
.......one must be profit/loss ............another sudden volatile direction play ........in which faced LOSS financially(learnet from MASTER TRAINER MARKET HIMSELF,.......then after only really U KNOW ,what may happen psychologically,.........U KNOW NOW......
YOUR ADVANTAGEOUS EXPERIENCE,OTHER'S SHALL REACT WRONG(others r new in game)...............so now actually u make money , being in RIGHT side. U may lose occasionally..........but definitely not big loss
Certain thing, u must know...........how many stocklist u can watch.
which which sector u can follow.
What factor influence that sector
How much av time u take to understand what is going on in a sector/stock.
From where u expect distraction ?(a personal shield to avoid it)
On what condition ,out of frustration u may sabotage own trade a/c
What u really know better than professional analyst...........so that if he seats against in other side of trade ,U DEFINITELY WIN.
How u follow your equity curve & ur plan for long haul.
Another typical difference to understand TACTICS vs strategy
Tactics is what u have to do NOW ? ........reactive, response as per situation
STRATEGY : long term plan, depends upon market structure, ur major assumption on life,attitude to loss,what u plan to do with money,knowledge acquiring idea,macro things
Both must NOT foul much. Infact synergy between this 2, Applying tactics in strategic context is a sure way to get success in life, added with REALITY
.................................................. ....................................
Let me explain further.................in trading after practicing for certain yr, we may face the truth.Truth are
1] market is flexible /changing.
2] u have to understand trade selectivity/on sp condition u enter/present condition has some bias for future direction,understood by u before others and taken entry and keeping /observing change in scenario/ur preassumption
3] If wrong dont pray, get out at first instance
............................
Market view market itself changes...............In layman's term.........a blind has found a pole before crossing the road,.........next day he comes..........by hitting with stick ,on that expected pole ,he finds its not there.Now the dilemma.......is the pole is removed ? or i am making wrong
Once you understand..........market itself change its characteristic..........solve a lot of beginner's trouble.
2]Trade is not possible in all condition/all stock............u have to understand sp characteristic of a stock/sector. Also sp condition market like how longer its duration bullish/bearish/volatile condition,.........beforehand or at the time of its happening.
Now from ur past study of market, u prevail this sp condition ,scenario shall exist for a certain time.Based on this assumption u create or visualise some stock movement ,commonly known as Target.Know at least risk pt or high probability of happening the event u enter.(also opposite view of yours ie. who shall be otherside of potential trade-if they going to be RIGHT ,when u throw TOWEL.)
Now see the info/is there any case sp macro/micro change. Shall it affect my target..........favourable.........increase holding TIME.........to get more profit out of it
3] If any were wrong, micro/company sp/govt scenario/uncertainiy........based on reflection in price(price is dropping)..........pl GET OUT.be on survival mode.
............this is the essence of trading i found in over a decade being in market.