Open Interest Analysis

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10333(+81) BankNifty 25440(+272)

Nifty futures open interest went down by -5.7% indicating wind of almost entire short position that was created in the last two weeks. Fresh position would be created after Election results, that may indicate the next set of trends in Nifty. Technically, Nifty(spot) may remain strong if holds above 10300 with resistance at 10390 and 10430.

OI in BankNifty got reduced by -16.7% which indicates short covering. Technically, BankNifty(spot) if breaks and holds above 25450, then it can move towards 25620 and 25700 levels.

How market may react after tomorrow's election results:

Markets reacted positively to Exit polls that unanimously predicted a win for the ruling BJP, now the focus would be shifted to Monday(Dec 18th) morning when the actual results would be known. Most of the TV channels had projected BJP to win in 105-115 seats, lets see how the market may react to different scenario's.

Scenario 1: If BJP wins as per Exit polls 105-115 seats: Markets may initially react positive but towards closing may settle flat or with marginal gains, as it had already gained on Friday’s session.

Scenario 2: If BJP wins more than 125-130 seats: Markets would react positively and carry on the momentum for few more days may even break all time high of 10490 in Nifty.

Scenario 3: If BJP wins less than 100 seats: Market may react negatively as hype created will fizzle out but the fall will not be big as BJP will retain power with less seats.

Scenario 4: If BJP lost the election and unable to form government: This would be the worst case scenario, where market can fall heavily and Nifty may break below 10,000 levels.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10389(+56) BankNifty 25595(+154)

Nifty futures OI continue to reduce -1.37% , which indicates there are no fresh buildup of either long or short positions. As the big event(election results) was over, market may take some time to digest. Next direction based on OI may be known once some fresh positions are taken. Technically, Nifty(spot) may stay with positive bias above its 21day moving average of 10268.

OI in BankNifty was at its lowest( -13.1%) in this December contract, in line with Nifty next direction will be known only if there are any fresh positions. Technically, BankNifty(spot) may stay with positive bias as long as it stays above 25430.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10463(+74) BankNifty 25716(+122)

Nifty futures open Interest was up by +0.39% indicating addition of Long position, its not significant as its only a marginal addition. Technically, Nifty(spot) may stay strong above 10380, it can test its resistance of 10500-10530 levels.

OI in BankNifty was up by +1.32% which indicates addition of fresh Long positions. A stay above 25550 may enable BankNifty(spot) to move towards 2600-26100 levels.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10444(-19) BankNifty 25592(-125)

Nifty futures open interest declined by -1.26%, indicating rollover of open positions. Nifty is entering into range bound mode with no fresh positions created. Nifty(spot) may stay in the range of 10390-10490 for the next few days.

BankNifty OI went down by -5.83% which indicates positions are shifted to January contract. BankNifty(spot) trading range would be 25450-25750 for the next few days.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10440(-4) BankNifty 25554(-37)

Nifty futures open interest declined by -5.9% as rollover of contract continued ahead of long weekend(Christmas),direction of rollover may be known by next week. Technically, Nifty(spot) trading range continue to remain at 10390-10490.

OI in BankNifty was down by -4% as positions are being rolled over to next contract. BankNifty(spot) trading range would be 24450-24750. Trading volumes came down in the last two sessions, its expected remain low for the next few sessions.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10493(+53) BankNifty 25649(+94)

Nifty futures open interest (combined three months) went up by +6.6% indicating rollover of long position as Nifty(spot) hit its new lifetime high. Technically, Nifty(spot) may stay with positive bias above 10400 with resistance at 10530 -10560 levels.

OI in BankNifty increased by +7.5% which indicates Long positions are rolled over to January contract. Technically, BankNifty(spot) may stay bullish above 25450 with resistance at 25800-25900 levels.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10532(+39) BankNifty 25675(+27)

Nifty futures OI (combined three months) went up by +7.9% indicating long rollover with Nifty inching upwards in low volume trades. Technically, Nifty(spot) stays positive above 10430 with resistance moving towards 10570 levels.

OI in BankNifty increased by +12.2% , indicating rollover of long position. Technically, BankNifty(spot) remains in the same range with positive bias above 25500, resistance continue to remain at 25800-25900 levels.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10491(-41) BankNifty 25496(-179)

Nifty futures open interest (combined three months) decreased by -1.4% indicating some long unwinding at higher levels. Technically, Nifty(spot) continue to stay bullish above 10430 levels with resistance at 10530-10560 levels.

Open Interest in BankNifty was almost flat indicating today’s fall was news based ( government may increase borrowings which can impact fiscal deficit). Technically, BankNifty(spot) has to close above 25750 for any significant upside, on the downside 25380 and 25290 are nearby support levels.

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10478(-13) BankNifty 25490(-6)

Nifty futures open Interest (combined three months) went up by +14.1%, as today being expiry of December contract there are possibilities that some contracts are left to expire, so we need one more day’s data (Friday’s OI) to confirm the strength of rolled over OI. Technically, Nifty(spot) stayed in the range of 10430-10550 for the last six trading sessions, only a break in this range with volumes would set the short term trend.

OI in BankNifty decreased by -5.6% , indicating long windup as BankNifty(spot) struggled to move up. Technically, BankNifty(spot) has to close above 25750 for a breakout, on the downside support levels are 25360 and 25250 respectively.
Using Open Interest To Find Bull/Bear Signals. By Investopedia Staff. Open interest is an indicator often used by traders to confirm trends and trend reversals for both the futures and options markets.

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