Open Interest Analysis

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty futures open Interest (+5.9%) continue to rise with Nifty(spot) staying almost flat for the second day. It seems huge hedging is taking place from the start of December contract ahead of crucial Gujarat Assembly elections. Technically, Nifty(spot) took support around its 100day moving average. A close below 10070 is required for Nifty to fall further. On the upside, Nifty(spot) has to break above 10270 for a significant upside.

BankNifty futures OI went up by +3.3% in line with Nifty OI, BankNifty(spot) bounced after touching its 50day moving average of 24937. It may stay in the range of 24950-25400 for the next few days.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty futures open Interest went up by +4.9% indicating further addition of shot position. Nifty(spot) closed below its 100day moving average of 10071 may test 10000-9960 levels.

Open Interest in BankNifty futures went up by a huge +16.2% indicating massive shot position. Spot price closed below its 50day moving average of 24950, it may head towards 24500-24600 levels.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty futures open Interest was marginally down by -0.56%, still shorts remains in Nifty futures. Today’s upward movement was not due to short covering but a technical bounce back. As these short positions are created ahead of an event(Gujarat elections) it may remain till end of the event . Technically, Nifty(spot) may stay weak below 10230.

In BankNifty futures further shorts are added with OI up by +1.54%. BankNifty spot may stay weak below the resistance of 25300.

 

[sumantra]

Nifty futures open Interest (+5.9%) continue to rise with Nifty(spot) staying almost flat for the second day. It seems huge hedging is taking place from the start of December contract ahead of crucial Gujarat Assembly elections. Technically, Nifty(spot) took support around its 100day moving average. A close below 10070 is required for Nifty to fall further. On the upside, Nifty(spot) has to break above 10270 for a significant upside.

BankNifty futures OI went up by +3.3% in line with Nifty OI, BankNifty(spot) bounced after touching its 50day moving average of 24937. It may stay in the range of 24950-25400 for the next few days.

Right

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty futures open interest was up by +2.6% indicating existence of short position, this may become favorable to bulls if the upcoming data’s and events(see below the events) such as IIP and election results are positive for markets. As Nifty recovered from its recent lows steeply without giving bears a chance to exit there may be huge short covering.

As per BankNifty OI was down by -12.1% indicating short covering, most of the Short positions created on Dec 06th(see the attached file) seems to covered, but the short positions created at the beginning of the month when BankNifty futures was around 25200 levels seems to be intact. As key economic data such as IIP and Inflation are due this week, these data’s may influence BankNifty movement.

Forthcoming data's and Events:

IIP for Nov 2017

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for the month of November 2017 would be announced on Tuesday(Dec 12th) evening. As markets are expecting a recovery in economic activity this data would be keenly tracked. October IIP was at 3.8%, market is expecting IIP figures to break above 4%.


CPI and WPI Inflation Nov 2017

Consumer Price Index(CPI) Inflation data for November month would be known on Dec 12th evening, it was 3.6% a month ago its expected to rise marginally, but if there is any substantial rise then market may react negatively. Wholesale Price Index(WPI) inflation would be known on Thursday(Dec 14th) at 12 noon.


Gujarat Elections Exit Polls

Second phase of Gujarat Assembly elections would take place on Thursday (Dec 14th ), in the evening Exit polls results would be released by various media groups, this may indicate who may win. Markets may react positively if the ruling BJP is projected as winners.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty futures open interest was up by +1.4% indicating marginal addition of Short position. Technically, Nifty(spot) has closed above its 21day moving average of 10250 and this would act as the support level. On the upside 10380 would be the nearby resistance.

In BankNifty, fresh longs are added as OI was up marginally by +1.6%. It seems these position are created on expectations of better IIP numbers, that would be known by tomorrow evening. Technically, BankNifty(spot) has resistance around 25460, if breaks and holds then it can move towards 25650. On the downside, 25200 would be the support level.

 

[timepass]

A suggestion, in your post opening, also mention the value of Nifty and Banknifty.

e.g.

Nifty : 10322.25 (+57), Banknifty : 25405 (+84)

Nifty futures open interest was up by +1.4% indicating marginal addition of Short position. Technically, Nifty(spot) has closed above its 21day moving average of 10250 and this would act as the support level. On the upside 10380 would be the nearby resistance.

In BankNifty, fresh longs are added as OI was up marginally by +1.6%. It seems these position are created on expectations of better IIP numbers, that would be known by tomorrow evening. Technically, BankNifty(spot) has resistance around 25460, if breaks and holds then it can move towards 25650. On the downside, 25200 would be the support level.

Maybe use the color green/red to indicate how the day ended. Not necessary though, but will provide a better reader experience.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 10240(-82) BankNifty 25125(-279)

Nifty futures open interest went up marginally by +0.97% indicating addition of Short positions, Technically, Nifty(spot) may weaken further if breaks and stays below its 50day moving average of 10226.

OI in BankNifty futures went up by a huge +13.15% as fresh short positions are created. BankNifty(spot) failed to break above 25450, this may lead to test 24900-24800 levels.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 10193(-47) BankNifty 25000(-125)

Nifty futures Open Interest rose marginally by +0.39% indicating short build up ahead of Gujarat Assembly Elections. Technically, Nifty(spot) remains weak below 10250, support levels are 10150-10120.


OI in BankNifty remained flat and there exists heavy short positions. BankNifty(spot) would remain weak below 25300 levels, near by support levels are 24800-24700

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 10252(+59) BankNifty 25168(+168)

For the first time in this December contract there had been a significant reduction in open Interest in Nifty futures -2.4% indicating Short covering. Almost all news channels predicted a win for BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections. This may enable Nifty to open in positive and if early gains hold there may be further short covering. Technically, Nifty(spot) may strengthen if breaks and holds above 10300 with resistance at 10330 and 10370.

BankNifty futures OI reduced by -9.1% as shorts were covered. Technically, BankNifty has stiff resistance around 25450, a close above this level is needed for further upside.