Nifty Futures Trading Strategy-New

[ag_fx]

Ankit, Good to see your views on my points..

I have some observations on your reply..so thought of continuing the discussion on them..



MAs are alway lagging. MACD is lagging price action by atleast by the Slow MA number that is used in the calculation (in your case it is 12d). It can't lead the price. When u use 9 day EMA as signal bar, you are again taking a 9 day MA .. so it will still be lagging.

Leading indicators tell us about the price levels before price actually reaching that level (like Fib levels, Support and Resis levels, Trend line, Elliot Waves etc). We can't calculate MA for tomorrow, day after tomorrow until we have actual price data of that day. But we can calculate Fib Retracement level in advance, we can project S&R levels for future days based on histrocial price action.

I guess the word leading indicators was wrong. What I am planning and trying to do is to try and generate some signals which can make us trade profitabily. Even after the trend has reveresed, there's a lot to take home and i plan to ride that. Yes, we will get to know after the trend has reversed, but would still be able to make money. And, I guess that's what for we all are here.

Regarding 30 points stoploss, good that you have backtested and found this as reasonable SL level. You might be making money with 60 pts target.
You are also Trailing stoploss. These are all right things that u are doing.
But IMO, you are placing a glass sealing above your strategy at 60pt target.
In this case, your trailing SL will not be able to ride the trend because 60pt target will be hit first.

When I started working on this start, I planned to develop it for intraday only. The reason for 60 point TP was only this, so as not to carry positions overnight. But as you suggested, we can start with 2 lots, cover one at 60 points and run the other lot with this level as trailing SL. Because of gap ups and downs, I wanted something more concrete to take positions home over night.

I remember a quote when someone asked a successful trend follower about "where is your target for this strategy ?". The reply was - "at the moon". Thats how trend follower work... they ride the trend when it is possilbe i.e. they let the profit run.. and when trend reverses, the cut the loss.. by SL or by trailing SL.

Anyway, you can remove the target limit for version 2 of this strategy when u will focus on improving it.
For the time being go ahead with your approach and post your backtesting result. I am eager to see the results.

Happy Trading

i will psot some results soon...so it would be up for grabs for all the members to fine tune the strategy


Thanks once again for your valuable inputs.

Cheers

 

[ag_fx]

Well Friends..I have been seeing many trading systems including saint sir 60 min flow,intrday mini flow , Deb's System and others and i can confidently say one thing over a period of 1 year NO SINGLE TRADING system can be the best!!!

Market behaves differently and at some period of time the flow method will work and sometimes against the flow will owrk..

Thanks a lot for your feedback sir. We will certainly take care of this input while we draw out our plans.

And honestly, I am not trying to make the BEST trading system.

I am just trying to come up with something with which I can trade profitably on regualr basis.

And yeah, I do plan to take feeds from various wonderful strats already present on this thread and thus hope to build a profitable trading strat.

Cheers

 

[ag_fx]

Here are the backtested results for 19-Nov to 08-Dec. please take a look and provide feedback.
Here is what I have followed in this:

1) initial trade is undertaken with 2 lots
2)2 more lots are added at MA crossovers
3) At tgt price, half of open lots are covered and rest half left for SAR.

In case of any doubt, do post.
Cheers


PS: The updated results are available with post 1 of the thread.

 

[tomdickpary]

hi ankit can u gve me advice in market hours tomrrow pls give me ur y m i D .

 

[ag_fx]

hi ankit can u gve me advice in market hours tomrrow pls give me ur y m i D .

i dint understnd waht you wanted...if u wanted advice on this strat..then lemme tell you this is still in testing phase...so please DONT trade it yet...

and if you seeking any trading advice...den i think iam not competent enuff....you shud probably check oder threads on such topics.....

and yea.u can post any query related to dis strat here ...i wud try and keep dis thread updated during mkt hrs...

 

[tomdickpary]

Ankit why r u not give me ur y m buddy in market hours u can help me for understend the nifty fu ok ,

 

[AW10]

Here are the backtested results for 19-Nov to 08-Dec. please take a look and provide feedback.
Here is what I have followed in this:

1) initial trade is undertaken with 2 lots
2)2 more lots are added at MA crossovers
3) At tgt price, half of open lots are covered and rest half left for SAR.

In case of any doubt, do post.
Cheers

Thanks a lot for sharing the result of backtesting.
Well done Ankit. Pretty meticulous work of recording the trades as well as the signal description. Strict stoploss of 30 points is helping this strategy correctly which is great.
That is the sole purpose of Stoploss..to limit the loss..

I don't know what type of anlaysis you have planned on these trade. I had just done basic counting.. and it gives total completed trades = 36, lossing trades = 8, winning trades = 28.
If I am doing this excercise then I would remove P&L column..as it distracts my mind which should be focusing on strategy development and not on Rs amt at this moment.
I will also analyse trades for factors like -
- what is average win /acrg loss size (in points)
- what is max loss size (considering the Gap open)
- how many trades had Add-on
- how many trades closed on SL / on trailing stop/ on Target 1/ and beyond Target 1.
- how many consecutive loosing trades it has produced
- what will be my result if top 5% of biggest winning trades are removed from the list..Does result still meet my acceptance criteria ?

Knowing the answer of above questions will give me more confidence in the strategy and help in keeping emotions away while trading with real money..

Not saying that you should do it as well.. But if you are considering it, then please share those results as well.

Happy Trading

 

[ag_fx]

Ankit why r u not give me ur y m buddy in market hours u can help me for understend the nifty fu ok ,

because buddy i cant use YM during market hours in my office....nothing aganst u..in case u want my gmail id..please pm me as i believe it is against the rules of traderji to post ur email address in open

 

[ag_fx]

Thanks a lot for sharing the result of backtesting.
Well done Ankit. Pretty meticulous work of recording the trades as well as the signal description. Strict stoploss of 30 points is helping this strategy correctly which is great.
That is the sole purpose of Stoploss..to limit the loss..

I don't know what type of anlaysis you have planned on these trade. I had just done basic counting.. and it gives total completed trades = 36, lossing trades = 8, winning trades = 28.
If I am doing this excercise then I would remove P&L column..as it distracts my mind which should be focusing on strategy development and not on Rs amt at this moment.
I will also analyse trades for factors like -
- what is average win /acrg loss size (in points)
- what is max loss size (considering the Gap open)
- how many trades had Add-on
- how many trades closed on SL / on trailing stop/ on Target 1/ and beyond Target 1.
- how many consecutive loosing trades it has produced
- what will be my result if top 5% of biggest winning trades are removed from the list..Does result still meet my acceptance criteria ?

Knowing the answer of above questions will give me more confidence in the strategy and help in keeping emotions away while trading with real money..

Not saying that you should do it as well.. But if you are considering it, then please share those results as well.

Happy Trading

Highly valuable input...taken sir....as of now the only results I have is of the file that I have posted.....I plan to FORWARD test this strat from today....I am sure I would be able to come up with a detailed analysis(like the way u mentioned) in some time....

and yeah..i wud remove the PnL column...lets focus on trades and no of points gained/lost....

thanks a lot for the input

 

[ag_fx]

Forward Testing

Buy 100 Nifty Fut @ 2853(Spot 2842) as MACD crosses signal line on upside.

at 10:23 AM

Tgt 2902,SL 2812 (Nifty Spot)

We will TP and SL only on nifty spot basis and not on fut basis


10:43 AM : Markets seem range bound....this is precisely where this strat needs improvement.....as of now holding the longs...but may want to cut posns in profit (may be small)

11:10 AM: No ADD operation on MA crossovers. Reason: Range bound market, Also MACD is looking to slope back to signal line to cross down. So, trading light.