Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close positive

[narangji]

Re: Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close posi

Have you applied your strategy on earlier months and if so with what results, success, failure ??

Smart_trade

ST sir did you even read what he wrote? He has made prediction both ways

We all know either it will go down or up or remain sideways

 

[SaravananKS]

Re: Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close posi

Hi All,

Thanks everyone for your response. I summarize below my response to various questions that have come up.

I did check my strategy against May 2015 data but it was showing possibility of two paths. It was already following the path of January 2011 but also showed the possibility of bypassing it and follow the path of June 2012. Both the cases had prediction of closure below their opening levels which happened in May 2015. For Jan 2015 I got possibility of following June 2010 and was expecting it to close below opening level but that did not happen.Since these are already closed I did not discuss of past data but wanted to discuss on currently open series.

However it is not able to identify the path for all the Nifty Series. e.g. for Nifty August 2015 series it has chartered new path from beginning and there is no co-relation to earlier series. There are similar instances in past also.

I am not tracking Bank Nifty. There are 3 reasons. (1) Historical data available for Bank Nifty is much less than that of Nifty. As this strategy is heavily dependent on Historical price data. More data means more trends and more possibility of identifying matching path. (2) Bank Nifty is high beta which I feel can be manipulated by big operators so I avoid Bank Nifty. (3) My trading account in ICICIDirect generally allows trading in bank nifty for 1 month or 2 months period only. They don't open all 3 months like it is possible for Nifty.

Also when I mention June 2015 and September 2013, I don't just mean those calendar months but I mean those series. As you are aware each series has 3 months period, so for June 2015 one should look at June 2015 series data which is for the 3 months period from April 2015 to June 2015. Similarly September 2013 series data means from July 2013 to September 2013 data.

Why you are tracking futures data instead of spot ??

 

[PIFFIP]

Re: Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close posi

I think it could be individual preference. I prefer to track futures data instead of spot because when we actually trade, we trade on futures prices and not on spot price. Also futures price has premium or discount component so when trading strategy is predicting a price it includes the premium or discount component based on the bullish / bearish scenario. I don't have to add or subtract premium or discount while placing the order. Also if you see the settlement price on expiry day, it is usually different from closing spot price. Although difference might not be much.

 

[TraderRavi]

Re: Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close posi

Although Nifty futures has shed more than 300 points in 2nd and 3rd June 2015 on account of Drought worries. Nifty is currently trading at approximately 8100 levels, and there are more possibilities of further fall, our proprietary trading strategy has shown that Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has a possibility to close Nifty June 2015 series with positive note i.e. more than its opening level of 8545.

The trading strategy identifies the path being followed by each Nifty Series and compares the same with the path followed in earlier months and years. While comparing the Nifty Futures for June 2015, it has identified a similar path that was followed by Nifty for the month of September 2013.

Nifty June 2015 series still has approximate 3 weeks to go and it may continue to follow the same path like September 2013 that it has been following till date in which case it is likely to close Nifty June 2015 series with positive note i.e. more than its opening level of 8545. There is also a possibility of Nifty deviating from the current path it has been treading till date and charter a new path in future before expiry of June 2015 series in which case the scenario will be different.


Disclaimer – This is not a trading recommendation and should not be used for trading purpose.

seems you are right but june series high is 8484 or 8545 so far ?

 

[PIFFIP]

Re: Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close posi

June series high was 8948 and after that it fell down till 7931.
8545 is opening level of June series. The current price is close to that but we need to see where it closes. Generally expiry week should have volatility of up and down but the trend for last 9 days has been one way.

 

[rahulmalik]

Re: Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close posi

June series high was 8948 and after that it fell down till 7931.
8545 is opening level of June series. The current price is close to that but we need to see where it closes. Generally expiry week should have volatility of up and down but the trend for last 9 days has been one way.

We can always so our math for expiry levels. What I have usually observed is that the game changes at 3PM on expiry days. The last 30 mins change the whole OI setup.

 

[PIFFIP]

Re: Nifty Futures for June 2015 treading on a path that has possibility to close posi

June 2015 series closure did not cross the opening level of 8545 but I observe one new thing today. As I mentioned June 2015 series was observed to be following path of two past series i.e. March 2013 and September 2013. The opening and closing level gap for March 2013 was -5.5% and for September 2013 was 2.1%. If I average these two gaps then result comes to -1.7% which is the gap for June 2015 series.