Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[girishd77]

Thanks for the informative posts.

I am of the view that, if everyone decides to sell -- no technical levels can withstand. China mkt corrected from 3478+ to 2761 in a matter of 11 trading sessions. That's a 20% cut in 11 trading session. Any thoughts on this?

Lot of money that came in from March is low quality money from trading experts like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Hedge funds. The prev bull mkt had money coming from stable funds like Pension Funds from 2003-2005 and then the Hedge Funds took over in 2007. We all know what the result was in 2008, 66% fall in our mkt.

 

[aid]

Sharing same thoughts with Kandid

--- aid

 

[pranayk]

weekly trading range for week ending 06 nov 09

the broad trading range for the week may be between 4577 on the lower side and 4868 on the higher side. A decisive breach of 4577 on the lower side may see a stone like fall towards 4353 in quick time that may threaten the medium term bullish outlook and a decisive breach of 4868 on the higher side may take nifty towards 5052 a breach of which may signal the confirmations of resumption of the bull run.

 

[pranayk]

astrological indications for week ending 06 nov 09

the present fall since 20 october 09 may be attributed to the major 5 planets occupying their respective lowest signs as per indian astrology. On the late afternoon of 21 october 09, jupiter was in capricorn, mars was in cancer, sun was in libra, venus was in virgo and moon too entered its lowest sign scorpio. Mercury was at its highest sign virgo and neptune transited capricorn (these are as per indian method of calculation). Although most of the planets had their debility cancelled, yet the very fact that they occupied their respective lowest signs had to leave a lasting impact.

A similar planetary set up had earlier occurred exactly 13 fibonacci years before when 5 of these important planets transited same signs on 17th october 1996 when mars, sun, mercury, neptune & moon had occupied the same signs as of 21 october 2009. Interestingly, in 1996, after a few days of this planetary transit, nifty fell from 953 levels from the 24th october 96 to a low of 777 by 4th of december 96 a total fall of 18% but recovered smartly to move up like rocket in next few months to reach a new life time high of that time around 1300 levels by 1st week august 1997, a rise of 67% in 8 months from the lows of 777 made after the similar planetary transit. Amazingly the low of around 777 made after that planetary transit have never been tested again till now. So both bulls & bears who keep a track of planetary transits may plan their investments and place themselves accordingly for coming days.

 

[pranayk]

plan of action for the week ending 06 nov 09

ruthless shorting of nifty futures should be the key action of both traders and investors during the week. But keep your eyes & ears open to keep a close watch on price action whether new intraday lows "l" are made without the breach of any intraday high "h" in which case continue to short on every intraday bounce up to or just short of "h" with must quit point above the previous intraday high "h".

However any time if nifty without breaching the last intraday low "l", moves up and breaches the last intraday high "h", one may consider going long but only when after a fall to a point "ll" below this new high "hh", again moves up to cross "h" if "ll" is below "h" or remains above "h" if new low "ll" is above "h" and does not again fall below both "h" & the low "ll" which it made while falling after breaching upwards the last high "h". Must quit point should be placed below the recent low "ll" if it is below "h" which if breached downwards then boldly enter reverse trade meaning go double short after quitting long with a must quit point just above the same intraday high "h". This may be applied to all time frames starting from intraday 5 minute to hourly charts in volatile markets. One also must make use of s & r, parsar, candlestick patterns or price bar patterns like double inside or out side bar together with ma cross over and indicator divergences etc for further refinement.

On a daily basis as long as nifty remains below 4868, shorting trade on every intraday rise is likely to be more beneficial as long as above principle is kept in mind. A fall below last weeks low of 4688 and more so below sept months low of 4577 may bring bonanza for both short position holders as well as for new fresh shorters.

 

[kandid]

plan of action for the week ending 06 nov 09

A fall below last weeks low of 4688 and more so below sept months low of 4577 may bring bonanza for both short position holders as well as for new fresh shorters.

so much for being a bull in a bull run. :rofl:

 

[s^3]

Sorry for a newbi entering in this arena of experts.

But I could not get answer in other forums so approaching here. Please excuse me.

Many a experts on TV say that " There is STRONG support ... etc "

Question:

Is 'STRONG support' mathematically different than conventional supports s1,s2 etc?? Or is it only a sentimental indication?

======

 

[pranayk]

markets for 3rd nov 09

the new month and the new week opens on tuesday morning at the back drop of dows 250 point fall on friday night following a deceptive 200 point rise on thursday night. On friday morning most of the asian markets had gained at the back of dows 200 point rise but indian markets had collapsed anticipating well in advance of the impending 249 point fall in dow later in the night. From 17th october onwards, indian markets are continuously falling except for just one day of flat on 23 october when nifty just gained by a meager 4 points. Indian markets are extremely oversold and almost all the indicators in the daily eod charts are in the oversold zone.

So irrespective of dows big fall on friday or any other manipulated rise or fall on monday, indian markets are in for a well deserved corrective bounce may be after an initial fall. As has been mentioned many a times earlier & also in the weekly news letter below, every operator induced intraday rise must be taken full advantage of to boldly short nifty futures till such time nifty does not decisively cross and sustains above 4868 levels. Only a decisive cross above 4868 can bring some hopes for the bulls.

For intraday trading on tuesday, in case of a well organized and manipulated fall, nse index may find initial support around fridays lows of 4688 because on friday nifty not only had made an out side bar but also a bearish engulfing candle after the gap up opening. So, a decisive breach of fridays lows at 4688 may see a substantial fall towards 4650 levels below which 4619 followed by september low of 4576 may be expected. However without the influence of dow & hedge fund operators as was the case with chinese markets on monday, nifty may be expected to show a reasonable bounce towards 4752 which if decisively crossed may activate the breach of the neck line around 4752 of a double bottom around 4690 levels in the 5 minute intraday chart which should easily see nifty retesting 4800 levels. Also the high of the out side bar in the hourly chart of nifty is at 4752, so a decisive cross over and sustaining above 4752 should show a substantial up move towards 4800 levels.

Even after the mild rise of 4 points on 23 october, nifty has fallen continuously for 5 days. Generally in 9 out of 10 cases, after a fall for 5 consecutive days, a reasonable bounce for at least a day or two should be expected, however in this operator infected markets everything goes against the expectation & it is wiser only to expect the unexpected

CERTAIN STOCKS THAT MAY DECIDE THE FATE OF NIFTY ON TUESDAY ARE RELIANCE, MARUTI, ICICI BANK AND SBI. IN CASE RELIANCE FALLS BELOW 1923 THEN IT CAN EASILY SLIDE TO 1867, THAT WILL BRING DOWN NIFTY WITH IT. BEING HIGHLY OVERSOLD IN THE DAILY EOD CHARTS AND ALSO IN THE CHARTS OF LOWER TIME FRAMES THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A FACE SAVING LUKE WARM BOUNCE IN RELIANCE WHICH SHOULD BE FULLY USED TO SHORT RELIANCE IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE VOLATILITY DOES NOT OFFER FAVORABLE SHORTING OPPORTUNITY. RELIANCE IF UNABLE TO RISE ABOVE 1984 AND FALLS BELOW 1923, THEN IT CAN BE CONFIDENTLY SHORTED FOR LOWER TARGETS OF 1868 THIS WEEK TO BE FOLLOWED BY 1717 THIS MONTH ONLY.

 

[columbus]

Futures Market fell for 5 days in a row, we can
expect some kind of bounce back.

 

[columbus]

Nifty and Nifty Future market has already
crossed DMA-50 and hardly 100 points away
from DMA-100, which is acting as some kind
of support.