Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 30 oct 09

dow surprised all by moving up by 200 points last night & most likely as per its daily eod charts has ended the 2 week long down side correction as its important indicators have started to look up from the bottom zone. European markets which had closed much earlier when dow was trading below 100 point gain, managed to close 1% to 1.5% up with uk ftse closing up by 1.1%. Brazil which was down by more than 4% on wednesday night, made up all the losses to rise by a mega 6% on thursday night and being an emerging market like india may give a solid boost to indian & other asian emerging markets. Asian markets although have not opened that strongly, will pick up strength and gather momentum gradually although chinese markets may still remain sluggish.

For indian markets, expect a solid gap up opening high above the expiry day high of 4818 to trap all shorters. Although reliance results may be a dampener, yet if one analyses further, one will find that the results were not bad & was as per expectations and was adversely blown out of proportion by news channels who perhaps have taken short positions in reliance. In case one finds nifty taking a pause due to reliance, then one can use this opportunity to quit shorts in nifty futures and other stock futures to go long to enjoy the bullish november series.

The recent correction in indian markets which had started on the new moon night of dewali on 17th october has perhaps ended yesterday or will end on full moon of 2nd nov 09. Most likely the mega bullish month of november will start from market opening on tuesday 3rd november. One should be reasonably sure to see october high of 5181 be easily breached in november. Generally before a mega up move a shake up occurs which perhaps has either got completed on expiry day to start the mega up move from around first week of november.

For intraday trading on friday, whether one goes long on every pause or goes short after every rise above 4848 one must book quick profit and quit at small loss. Although operators may generate sudden fall in markets to make long entry points for themselves and news channels harp more on negative news to quit their shorts, one must use this temporary halt or falls in markets to buy for long term gains as next mega up leg of the present bull market may start shortly. Long term investors may quietly accumulate cairn, reliance, biocon, badly beaten down cement stocks like acc, grasim, infra stocks which have shown good results, as the companies which have been beaten down badly during this correction in spite of good results will show the sharpest up move during the coming up move in nov 09.

 

[pranayk]

Chart Analysis

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/1500/99752508.png

 

[munde_77]

morning update at 8 am 30 oct 09

dow surprised all by moving up by 200 points last night & most likely as per its daily eod charts has ended the 2 week long down side correction as its important indicators have started to look up from the bottom zone. European markets which had closed much earlier when dow was trading below 100 point gain, managed to close 1% to 1.5% up with uk ftse closing up by 1.1%. Brazil which was down by more than 4% on wednesday night, made up all the losses to rise by a mega 6% on thursday night and being an emerging market like india may give a solid boost to indian & other asian emerging markets. Asian markets although have not opened that strongly, will pick up strength and gather momentum gradually although chinese markets may still remain sluggish.

For indian markets, expect a solid gap up opening high above the expiry day high of 4818 to trap all shorters. Although reliance results may be a dampener, yet if one analyses further, one will find that the results were not bad & was as per expectations and was adversely blown out of proportion by news channels who perhaps have taken short positions in reliance. In case one finds nifty taking a pause due to reliance, then one can use this opportunity to quit shorts in nifty futures and other stock futures to go long to enjoy the bullish november series.

The recent correction in indian markets which had started on the new moon night of dewali on 17th october has perhaps ended yesterday or will end on full moon of 2nd nov 09. Most likely the mega bullish month of november will start from market opening on tuesday 3rd november. One should be reasonably sure to see october high of 5181 be easily breached in november. Generally before a mega up move a shake up occurs which perhaps has either got completed on expiry day to start the mega up move from around first week of november.

For intraday trading on friday, whether one goes long on every pause or goes short after every rise above 4848 one must book quick profit and quit at small loss. Although operators may generate sudden fall in markets to make long entry points for themselves and news channels harp more on negative news to quit their shorts, one must use this temporary halt or falls in markets to buy for long term gains as next mega up leg of the present bull market may start shortly. Long term investors may quietly accumulate cairn, reliance, biocon, badly beaten down cement stocks like acc, grasim, infra stocks which have shown good results, as the companies which have been beaten down badly during this correction in spite of good results will show the sharpest up move during the coming up move in nov 09.

I am holding 10 lots of nifty average price of 4880. What should I do . Accumulate more on dips or book partial los. pleae guide me

 

[hills_5000]

Hi ,

Am not very familiar with the analysis you have used. RSI etc is ok but on the OHLC ?..could you care to elaborate pls ? Just for understanding as to what the OHLC is saying .

Regards

Chart Analysis

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/1500/99752508.png

 

[pranayk]

weekly markets analysis for week ending 06 nov 09

again the week ended with massive falls and traders had a fantastic week by following operators in ruthlessly shorting nifty every day on slightest amount of intraday rise. A gap up opening was a big bonanza for intraday traders to boldly short nifty future and sit tight till end of the day. Well, the same action may continue for a few more days although nifty looks highly over sold for a reasonable bounce. Whether bounce comes or not, intraday traders should start their day with a resolve to short nifty future on every gap up opening or intraday bounce after a flat or gap down opening. Even long term holders holding stocks may also enjoy the luxury of intraday shorting nifty futures or higher calls of 4800 for some more days or till such time nse index remains below 4868 closing levels. Only a decisive close above 4868 for a day or two may bring some pause to the ruthless shorting.
Instead of being a sitting duck to watch the operators actions of dow & hedge fund operators who are playing merry hell with indian markets, it is wiser to take advantage of their nasty action by shorting nifty futures. One must be reasonably sure in his mind that dow prices are entirely manipulated by mafia controlled economic announcements every second day there, to fool & influence other world markets. These dow & hedge fund operators have managed to spread like virus & have infected the entire world markets and the way things are going on at present, one should not be surprised to see nifty retesting 19th august low of 4353 after breaching september 09 lows of 4577 shortly. So, keep these two targets of 4868 on the higher side and 4353 on the lower side and continue shorting till 4868 is not crossed on a closing basis.
Things like moving averages, support & resistances, fibonacci retracements , ew theory are the main targets of these operators to breach and take the markets opposite to the indications presented by the indicators. Now the only thing, that one can hope, for the revival of the markets is the past history of months of november and december compared to month of october starting from the year 2000.it is quite amazing to note that, except for the bearish year of 2008, every year starting from october 2000, nifty in both november & december months made higher highs and each of these had higher highs than highs of october. Even during 2008 both november & december had consecutive higher lows, each higher than the lows of october. Well, knowing the actions of these dow & hedge fund operators, one should not be surprised to find that even this left out bit of history being violated and rewritten by operators

 

[pranayk]

weekly technicals for week ending 06 nov 09


even though the markets fell badly during the second half of the month, yet the indicators in the monthly charts have not undergone any significant change to indicate bearishness. The low of october was at 4688 that was much higher than the lows of september which was at 4577.september highs at 5087 and october high of 5181 was a higher high than september. However the breach of the monthly support line that came from start of this bull market from march 09 and closing below it is an early sign of weakness. Other aspects of monthly charts as was given last week is reproduced below without much change.
The perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month is occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.

Contrary to the indications of the long term monthly charts, indicators in the weekly charts certainly look highly bearish and unless there are solid rearguard actions initiated by bulls this week, there is every possibility of markets sliding further during the week to threaten the medium term bullish outlook. Weekly ichimoku indicator has not gone any change during the week where as weekly relative volatility index at 37 is a sign of weakness weekly stochastic looks the weakest having drooped down from the upper zone & is nearing the mid point that has half way more to fall into the lower zone. Weakly rsi at 55 is hanging in balance and a fall below 50 will terminate all the hopes for the bulls. Other weekly indicators although are not that alarming at present can certainly turn bearish on further fall of the markets. Certain bullish indications as was given last week have not yet changed and are given here to keep the hopes of bulls alive:--

as was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.

Almost all the daily indicators look extremely weak, but the only saving grace being all of them are looking highly oversold that may either continue to remain oversold for some more days or may show a sharp upward corrective bounce after a few more days of terminal falls. Nifty having decisively breached important fibonacci daily ema of 13,21,34,55 is just above 89 days ema which is around 4655 that should see a reasonable bounce or else next fibonacci 144 ema around magic level of 4422 should arrest further falls. With dow & hedge fund operators in full play to manipulate markets, it is just a matter of time when one should see these emas being breached by nifty to retest critical level at 4353.

 

[kandid]

weekly technicals for week ending 06 nov 09


even though the markets fell badly during the second half of the month, yet the indicators in the monthly charts have not undergone any significant change to indicate bearishness. The low of october was at 4688 that was much higher than the lows of september which was at 4577.september highs at 5087 and october high of 5181 was a higher high than september. However the breach of the monthly support line that came from start of this bull market from march 09 and closing below it is an early sign of weakness. Other aspects of monthly charts as was given last week is reproduced below without much change.
The perfect doji of august month with its top at 16002 & 4744 having been decisively crossed in september should at least see 3 months of higher highs taking it to november end to make higher highs every month, even it can go to consecutive 5 or 8 months of higher highs in monthly charts. Both simple & exponential 20 month moving average coming from above the 50 month ma and turning upwards without breaching 50 mma is a mega bullish signal for the long term.8 month simple moving average coming from below 20 month sms and breaching it to move up above both 13 month & 20 month sma during the month is occurring for the first time after the onset of previous bull market in april 2003. This ma cross over in monthly charts has the potential for another 3 to 5 years of bull run to which long & medium term investors should take full advantage of as we are presently in the initial stages of a mega bull market that started in march 09 & may go up till 2013 as per long term monthly charts. Hard core short term traders should keep at least half of their money for long term investments in their favorite stocks and carry on with short term or day trading both on the long & short side as per short term market movements only in balance half of the money to take full advantage of long term bull market.

Contrary to the indications of the long term monthly charts, indicators in the weekly charts certainly look highly bearish and unless there are solid rearguard actions initiated by bulls this week, there is every possibility of markets sliding further during the week to threaten the medium term bullish outlook. Weekly ichimoku indicator has not gone any change during the week where as weekly relative volatility index at 37 is a sign of weakness weekly stochastic looks the weakest having drooped down from the upper zone & is nearing the mid point that has half way more to fall into the lower zone. Weakly rsi at 55 is hanging in balance and a fall below 50 will terminate all the hopes for the bulls. Other weekly indicators although are not that alarming at present can certainly turn bearish on further fall of the markets. Certain bullish indications as was given last week have not yet changed and are given here to keep the hopes of bulls alive:--

as was mentioned during previous weeks certain mega bullish weekly indications like 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Secondly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels. A much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252. These are strong long term bullish signals that encourages long & medium term investors to boldly go long on every decline of markets for super gains in coming months.

Almost all the daily indicators look extremely weak, but the only saving grace being all of them are looking highly oversold that may either continue to remain oversold for some more days or may show a sharp upward corrective bounce after a few more days of terminal falls. Nifty having decisively breached important fibonacci daily ema of 13,21,34,55 is just above 89 days ema which is around 4655 that should see a reasonable bounce or else next fibonacci 144 ema around magic level of 4422 should arrest further falls. With dow & hedge fund operators in full play to manipulate markets, it is just a matter of time when one should see these emas being breached by nifty to retest critical level at 4353.

hi pranayk ,
earlier you wrote that nifty correction is in its last leg.
quite a gloomy scenerio you have painted for people like me and munde who are long on nifty.

 

[pranayk]

elliott wave count for week ending 06 nov 09

we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. The 2nd sub wave of the 3rd wave was completed on 19th august at the low of 4353.

The 3rd sub leg of 3rd wave is on and having completed the 1st sub sub up wave till 28th aug high of 4744, 2nd sub sub down leg till 2nd sept low of 4577, the 1st sub sub sub leg of the 3rd up sub sub leg got completed around 20 oct high of 5181 and presently we are perhaps in the abc zigzag down correction which is perhaps the 2nd sub sub sub leg of the 3rd sub sub up leg which is shown in the daily eod chart above. This downward zigzag correction should stop around the level of 4577 or else it can take the form of a bigger fall towards 4353 which is the low of 2nd sub wave of the 3rd up wave. A breach of this 2nd sub wave should be sufficient indication for all bulls that nifty will & will retest the low of the 2nd down wave of this bull market at 13th july low of 3919 and perhaps fall further to give a confirmed signal as to the end of this bull market.

Presently, the fall from the high of 5181 in the form of an abc zigzag had its "a" down wave completed at 22rd october low of 4969, "b" up wave went up till the high of 5052 & presently we are perhaps in the final "c" down leg of this correction which is to have 5 down sub legs and out of this so far 4 legs are over and on friday nifty has entered the 5th & final down sub leg. Under normal circumstances if ew counting is right, this correction should end before or around 4577 or else one can expect monster type falls to much lower levels. Should the correction end at or before reaching 4577 and nifty moves up, then till such time the high of "b" wave at 5052 is not crossed, one should never count that bull run has resumed.

 

[kandid]

elliott wave count for week ending 06 nov 09

This downward zigzag correction should stop around the level of 4577 or else it can take the form of a bigger fall towards 4353 which is the low of 2nd sub wave of the 3rd up wave. A breach of this 2nd sub wave should be sufficient indication for all bulls that nifty will & will retest the low of the 2nd down wave of this bull market at 13th july low of 3919 and perhaps fall further to give a confirmed signal as to the end of this bull market.

Hope is not a strategy :annoyed: (i read somewhere)

 

[pranayk]

fibonacci levels for nifty

keeping in mind the ew count above, we first consider the low of 2nd sub wave of 3rd up wave to count the fib retracements. The low was at 4353 and and the high made was at 5181. So various retracements are:-38.2% at 4864, 50% at 4767 & 61.8% at 4669.now as per fib rule nifty should take support around 4669

a decisive breach of 4669 will take us to have next fibonacci count from the low of 2nd wave at 3919 to the high of 5181. In that case one has to assume that the so called mega 3rd up wave has ended at 5181 and the present fall is part of the 4th corrective down wave. Various corrective falls in that case would be 38.2% at 4698, 50% at 4550 and finally 61.8% at 4401.

Being a bit optimistic in assuming that the correction has ended on friday at the low of 4688 or may end at earlier given 61.8 fall at 4669, various upward fibonacci retracements from 4669 would be 38.2% at 4864, 50% at 4925 and 61.8 at 4985.