Market Upside Is Ahead

[sanjosedesi]

Since it is time to make predictions without giving any background, I thought I will provide mine ...

Market upside is ahead.
We are over-sold and this will not continue for too long.
There still might be shocks, but RBI meet will fix it.
We might have an "early" RBI announcement also.

However, let's provide justification also.

I have seen big banks creating this kind of pressure in US during late 2008, where McCain (and Obama) rushed back from campaign for essentially a photo op and W (Bush 2) and gang initiated TARP operations. While TARP etc., were needed, the pressure was created to give a sense of falling sky and over-ride any opposition.

Now people are worried about inflation, and RBI is going to increase rates to fix this. The people who do not want higher rates are creating this drama to show we are under heavy distress and rate increase will make it worse. As soon as RBI gives in (or announces), things will be back on track. Number 1, uncertainty will be out. Number 2, they will probably shave off a few basis points from what RBI wanted to do.

Not knowing the real background, this is my best guess on what's going on.

Question - Is managed panic ... legal?

 

[timepass]

Managed panic?? maybe, but I heard on TV that FIIs are putting a lot of money in 5800 and 5900 puts.

 

[TraderRavi]

Yeah,...It could be managed panic....because Inflation , scams etc were always there..so nothing changed dramatically ...so why this sudden fall....May be thoda back, then Whoooommmmm to All time high......

 

[DiwaliCrackers]

===============================================

 

[timepass]

This bogie of all time high has been doing rounds for quite some time now. Hatheli pe chaand wali baat hai. But one thing I can agree with - there really is something phoney about this steep fall. Has there really been a serious flight of capital or just devaluation?

Some months ago, we saw a serious spurt of FII buying (around 5300-5500) and the momentum took the Nifty to 6000+ much faster than anyone anticipated.

 

[NiftyFantasy]

Seems that all above posters are on a huge long position....and waiting for a miracle...

 

[stock72]

Seems that all above posters are on a huge long position....and waiting for a miracle...

me too long. but not expecting miracle.... just planning some damage control...

 

[NiftyFantasy]

me too long. but not expecting miracle.... just planning some damage control...

R u still holding 6200 ce or converted it to some lower levels ???

I have also picked 6200 feb ce 4 lots @26 on friday... lets see

 

[NiftyFantasy]

One thing is clear that either we will see 5000 or 7000 within feb...

 

[sanjosedesi]

One thing is clear that either we will see 5000 or 7000 within feb...

If 5000 happens, it will happen within January.

If 7000 happens, most likely March or later. The move up will not be without hiccups.