market gossip fr chamatcar

[tanewbie]

Street sold off SBI the moment nothing has come in the Budget. Well, SBI will become Rs 1300 come what it may. I am sure and agree with our SC team with their SBI call. They have produced finest trading calls in last one month and I must say they are the best.

Our MB team too is doing well though market is yet to catch the fancy of small caps. Mid caps are on fire. Hind Dorr Oliver has been again picked by them in third innings ahead of March nos. This IVRC baby is all set to become a block buster like Nesco simply because they have handed over the possession of Andheri property to Glenmark the gains will be reflected in March quarter results.

Market is again talking of sell off since the PM agreed to ahead with treaty. Signing of treaty could take Sensex past 11000. Do not think of going short in this kind of market which I had been advocating from 5000 onwards. FII are talking of Maruti and Tata Motors havala of Rs 1000 though I am not convinced. I would bet on RIL, REL and SBI for that matter.

With Nuke treaty signed by India I think the fight between Sensex and Dow will continue with end result of Senses surpassing Dow but whenWill it happen next week..?

 

[tanewbie]

Unabated buying is still happening and the so-called short sellers will again go for hiding. They are reportedly again going short in Nifty on the presumption that market is very close to top out. Few technical experts are giving calls on market of 10800 top out etc which is sparing retail largely. No correction can happen without major retail participation. If entire market is owned by FII without retail participation and operators involvement, it is all the more good for FII to take markets to 26000 Sensex with 74% ownership. If that happens it will be win win situation for Govt because only tax payers remain in market and for FII no barriers and obstructions.

India is the only country left for them where though valuations are extremely stretched yet it is easy to have returns above normal rates. Look it this way.the basic idea is to keep Sensex in high zone with 30 mockery stocks where even PE on record will look absurd. Behind the scene invest at least 10 times larger sums in 300 odd stocks which are undervalued. This happens through placements and blocks transfers and then just double/ triple the price without regulators intervention. Bajaj Hindustan, KEC, CESC, Stone India, Patel Engg, Kirloskar Pnumetics, Venus Remedies, Matrix Lab, Suzlon, Punj Llyodd are classical examples. The average return is super normal because Sensex stocks normal returns of 20% whereas non sensex stocks over 100% and average 60 to 70%.CoolYou decide should they leave India and or invest more in India where stocks are available like Dharavi stuff.

The immediate target of market is to take Sensex past Dow which means another rally of 700 odd points is visible before a routine correction starts. In any case, we are in just first week of March and the settlement day is on 30th March 2006 which cannot be forgotten. Correction if any could come only in the last week of March due to rollover pressure. Meanwhile after some pause in the Sensex rally, midcap and small cap will start early next week because without retail participation no correction can take place and retail can refrain from investing once volumes start in mid cap and small cap. They always enter late to get it trapped to be consoled in the next round of rally. It happened in Sept last but Jan was witnessed with huge mid cap rally. Again Feb was dull and rally will start in March.

I am here to just interpret the market behaviour and no way a market driver and therefore we will have to wait for the market drivers to act.




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[tanewbie]

3/6/06 Time : 16:43:5

Now market is buzzing bonus in TCS which was my story ever since TCS was Rs 1100. Still another Rs 300 rise is required for bonus declaration. Similarly in case of Satyam another Rs 100 rise is required for bonus and IBM buzz. Market closed at 10735 just away by another 100 points where street is betting on market top out. The real rally will start post 10800 which should happen tomorrow. Tata Motors will have to cross Rs 1000 which has been mentioned by me time and again because of the pending conversion at Rs 1001. RIL, ONGC and SBI are still in hot pursuit for the Sensex game. I personally see March havala of Nifty at 3300 or close by, SBI at Rs 1000 plus and Suzlon at Rs 1350 plus.

Today RIL and REL were the market drivers as expected by me. RIL was specifically on the rumour of gas find in Gujarat. Tomorrow will be the day of Suzlon as I was told that ICICI Pru and few other FII are likely to go for kill in Suzlon counter on the back of better than expected Q4 nos. Suzlon has exceeded the installation of 9 months wind mill power projects i.e 278 MW in last quarter and expected cross 500 MW which could boost the bottom-line far beyond the analysts expectations. This is similar story like Bajaj Auto at Rs 800. Post two good quarters every street player has given buy call in Bajaj Auto. I had first ignited buy on Suzlon at Rs 700 with target price of Rs 1000 and I believe that Suzlon is set to cross Rs 1800 in 6 months. As such only few dare to trade in this stock which has traveled in no mans land like Bhel and BEL.

Visibly volume in B gr has started picking up with FII taking interest which will automatically bring back retail on these counters. DSP is accumulating Premier Explosives Ltd which incidentally the original research of Chamatkar and therefore our call on this stock cannot go wrong even though the driver is FII. Government of India has phased out class-3 NG Explosives for private sector and opened up small die meter explosives segment of about 30000 tons per annum to private sectors and reportedly PEL has secured orders for the same. Secondly it has started commercial production in its new plant to manufacture rocket fuel which has great significance in view of the nuclear treaty being signed by Govt with USA. The stock should be on fire till Rs 132 beyond which only sky should be the limit for this stock.

In another stock Jyoti Limited, ICICI Pru and Hindustan Construction have been allotted pref shares. The value unlocking will start only after one year at Rs 300 plus. Accumulate.

The third stock where some action is happening is Nuchem where ENAM as well as RJ has accumulated huge quantity between Rs 12 and Rs 16 and said stock is available at 50% now. Sell is on. Once the news on sell of Nuchem Machine Tools Ltd. with existing land of 16 acrs near Delhi is broken, mousam of CTC will start. Hind Dorr Oliver was available at Rs 30 in just 18 months before which started moving up on realty story and crossed Rs 540 today. Well who knows Nuchem could be another one. I advise die hard speculators to buy in tons and forget.

 

[tanewbie]

Date : 8 Mar 2006 Time : 16:58:14
FII too play dirty game....

Correction came when it was not thought of and desired because all the
corrections always come when not warranted and unexpected though Technical will claim that they had initiated sell call. For them every day is
Diwali and Holi because the language is only if and but. Irrespective of huge sell off followed by Rs 1600 crs sell figures in derivatives; I maintain target rally post 11000 on various pretexts after the necessary correction. Correction came at a time nobody desired and traders raised their trading bets. Excessive long positions had the toll.
Further weakness is definitely there on cards due to first day of
losses for the traders. Usual sell off, squaring off and finally margin call
from banks and brokers which means serious business without any concern of investors will have impact tomorrow and even on Friday before it takes
U turn. Post correction sharp recovery will start for.......
One that CLSA’s economic advisor Jim Walker has maintained today that
India economy can grow at 10% and at the same time our Hon’ble FM
given a call to Industry captains seeking their demands for the industry in
order to maintain 12% growth. Simultaneously China has reiterated that its
GDP growth for 06 will be 8% which means India will be the fasted growing
nation and therefore it can be presumed that the flow will not stop.
Apart from the same, domestic funds are having liquidity of Rs 14000 crs and
latest RIL open ended fund is getting huge response. This positive approach cannot make any firung to take a negative for sell off. In fact, I have been maintaining that the madness of announcing derivatives figures
during market hours should be stopped which is allowing FII to create
intra day volatility. This is dangerous and regulator must really look
into this issue. Alternatively retail investors should be banned in
derivative trades and this section should be made for FII, MF, broker’s
proprietary trades and HNI’s.
RIL will remain market driver for next 2 months and so long RIL does
not cross Rs 850 to Rs 900 I would maintain my buy call on the market leave
apart the corrections without which market cannot become healthy. In
fact, I had suggested booking profit in RIL at Rs 735 plus as Entire Street
had gone long and now again short positions are building. Anything close to
Rs 700 RIL is a golden goose. In the midcap segment you can add Samband
Spinning and ITI as my best favorites with price targets of Rs 500 in
both of them in 2 years time. Tiger Fund India (DSP) is holding close to 5%
stake in the former with spinning industry is for re-rating after
capacity expansions post quota and the later will take shape like BEML which was recommended at the same levels couple of years ago.

 

[tanewbie]

Nuchem chart attached.

 

[bharatk8]

hi tanwbie.... i agree with u.FII sell data should not be disclosed during market hours...views about RIL are approprate.....we have not yet breached 12DMA..and 25DMA _which has provided reliable support so far is likely to give strong support and prove prediction about growth rate of GDP is correct

 

[tanewbie]

Date : 9 Mar 2006 Time : 17:6:3
Lifting VEIL....

Yesterday I had mentioned that FII play dirty games and it is proved
today when the derivative figures were announced at 10.30 in the morning. The moment it was announced another big sell figure; it was pretty sure
that market to close in positive territory because this allowed again a
sharp fall due to the reason explained by me yesterday. This sharp fall and
consequently speculating unwinding helped FII to cover what they sold.
Why this happened…? Well, Bank of Japan was to announce the rate hike
which disturbed the Japanese FII and triggered the Nifty sell and
before even they could sell FR from market drivers happened. The figures in
cash was continued to be positive because no stocks selling had happened
which could have happened if the interest rate hike materialized. Since the
event did not happen buying started and for big buying fear ought to
have created which happened due to figure display. It is a proven fact that anomaly of disclosing the derivative figures during market hours had created this drama. A serious thought is required either to announce both cash and derivative figures during the market or after the market. Though market was falling like pack of cards, midcap stocks were firing. ITI will be the best suited for medium to long term because ITI has recd a fresh order to the tune of Rs 800 crs whereas in respect of its earlier order of Rs 560 crs from AT & T, it has finally got the release order the announcement of which is pending. The stock will spurt heavily post announcement since the order would change its earning substantially. And with the new order, the order book position has started burgeoning like Bhel. Therefore it is quite possible that on announcement it will surpass its previous high because the driver of the stock is none other that RJ. For short term trading it will provide an excellent trading opportunity for 20 to 40% gains. Another stock which drew my attention today was J K Agri. The stock hit upper circuit and if my information is correct, in the GEAC ( Genetic Engineering Approval Committee) meeting held on 8th March 06, it has got the approval of BT cotton in India. If this is true then the stock is heading for 4 figures even though in book it shows losses. It has already announced de-merger of seeds division and the ratio is 128 shares for every 100 shares. Since existing 100 shares will remain in J K Agri Investments with EPS of Rs 30 (entire is dividend), the price will be maintained and the seeds division will get listed at Rs 500 plus which could a decent valuation of Rs 640 per share (1.28 x Rs500). Thus the combined valuation could be Rs 900 a cool return of 300%. You will not deny I had valued RIL when it was Rs 500 at Rs 1400 and today all put together is close to Rs 1400.

 

[tanewbie]

Date : 10 Mar 2006 Time : 16:36:18
No tax worries this time....

Couple of days back I had written about Suzlon and see it is firing all the way. Market is heading towards uncharted territory where charts will not work. Please abstain from following the same as well as stop going short in Nifty.
Monday could the day of HLL, Tata Chemicals and Wipro simply because Infy and Satya outperformed on the give day whereas Wipro has not though operator had consolidated good amount of position. However the best of the pack where lot of steam is left seems to be HLL and Tata Chemicals, the former will be the Sensex driver where at least 50 mn shares buying is likely to immerge from FII house. I believe that it could cross Rs 280 in next 15 days which will give fair idea on the Sensex. Stop talking nonsense of huge correction, market topping out etc. In fact, post 10850 the real sizzling will start till the year end. This year will be a different year as in my opinion no HNI is in hurry to sell in order to pay advance tax due to the fact that they are already enough liquid.
The second one is Tata Chemicals which has become the third largest soda Ash Company is the world after its recent UK acquisition. I was recommending Tata Power when it was Rs 140 till Rs 20o and now see it is become grown adult. Believe it Tata Chemicals is heading for vertical run in coming days. Above Rs 260 it will move like rocket in this month as lot of consolidation has happened. In next 12 months Tata Chemical is set to cross Rs 600 under the Stewart leadership none other than the only one who had been driving Titan, Century, Bhel, BEML etc. By the time it come in public domain, it could be Rs 400 plus. On 9th May 2003 we had picked up an unknown story (refer special features through search engine) Revathi Equipment at Rs 129 with which has become Rs 1200 in less than three years only because this blue cheap company famously known as CP Tools was taken over by Mr Abhishek Dalmia though acquisition route. This take over tycoon has speciality of turning stocks hot. Now as per the announcement made by Ashiana Housing, the same tycoon has joined the board of the company. With strong Q3 nos, more than fantastic Balance Sheet, small equity of Rs 5 crs and development of property worth Rs 250 crs on hand in Delhi, zero debt and just 32% free float makes Ashiana a real hot real estate story. If you are searching out for reality stories and I thing Ashina is one without much liquidity which will off course be seen once the stock crosses a decent level. I would suggest buy and forget this stock in quantity for next 2 years and see where you land up. My call is at Rs 500 plus.

 

[tanewbie]

Date : 13 Mar 2006 Time : 15:51:17
Bulls still in control....

Cut and paste story is over. Those who were giving 10817 as top out are busy revising the targets to 11500 and followers busy cutting nifty short.
How do we assume that market is set for 50% correction..? Till this month end no correction in sight. In fact, new tops are likely to be made. Everyday fresh buying is generated and retail sitting on the fence is feeling the heat. It is time that they have started pulling the socks and making entry into the market. But die hard speculators who are short in nifty are yet to cover their positions. Suzlon was the pick of stock whereas Tata Chemicals, HLL and SBI will remain hot till this vallan end. TCS is moving up on bonus buzz and by
the time actual announcement will come it has to be close to 2 K as
predicted. Heard that another leading research house is now busy releasing report of Genus Overseas which was first found by Chamatkar. At least three other broking houses had already issued reports on this Jaipure based power
equipment company. But in my opinion valuations are stretched at the moment. Use this opportunity to make exit from the stock to re-enter at Rs
150 levels in next three months.

RPG Cables is next turnaround story form RGP gr. We had initiated buy call
of KEC and CESC at Rs 17 each and both these stocks are darlings of the
market and now we are bullish on RPG cables. In fact, entire cable industry we are positive. We have reasonable belief that RPG Cables will cross Rs 300 mark in next two years. May be, after six months every research house will give buy call on this turn around story. Buy and forget any quantity and sell 80% at 20% profit and carry the residuals for the rest of the life and see how much returns you get. One of the leading FII got convinced about the story.

 

[tanewbie]

Date : 14 Mar 2006 Time : 18:9:44
Uncertain market sentiments pre Holi.....

Market begin strongly promising to reach the 10900 mark like the Australians but after mid day the market sentiments declined as it is a holiday tommorrow and the market started correcting ala South Africans. But we belive that on thursday the markets will open with some gap upwards.
Our picks for the day like SBI, TCS & TATA Chemicals were on fire in the
first half of the trading session. Belive in Chamatkar and Australia as we
will bounce back as would the market.
Wish you a happy holi and hope the post holi market sentiments would be
positive.