market gossip fr chamatcar

[tanewbie]

Irrespective small unconvincing up move, I maintain my stand of sharp correction before next Thursday. The more delay in the correction, sharper it will be because rollover of Rs 40000 crs which include almost 3 cr Nifty is not a joke. I do not think any of the operators will pay premium for the rill over to the extent of 2 or 3%. At the same time we maintain our bullish view on SBI and Century Textiles. It is better to be fence sitter for next 2 to 3 trading sessions instead of betting wrongly and burning your fingers.

We have initiated buy call on Bihar Sponge not because it is under our research but simply because Indias leading research house owner has entered this stock in his personal capacity. It is worth taking risk in this stock which could turn out to be fortune maker. Another stock which hitting bulls eye which we intent to cover is diakafil chemical a company which has excellent export track record and set to compete Ciba Speciality. Do your duel diligence before your enter as our team yet to meet the management.

 

[tanewbie]

The man who can see tomorrow.....
Market closing below 10k as in line with our correction call. We still persist with our sell call for another couple of trading sessions.As from Monday onwards Marging Calls will start to trigger that means even if you do not wish to sell but will be forced to sell by your broker in order to fulfill margin obligations.So still refrain from taking new positions atleast for the next two days.

 

[gandharvashu]

If u want to buy bad stocks at higher levels then chamatcar is the nicest place. Experience says. I ask this person if u buy a stock like titanor component at 275 and then after some time the stock falls to 180 odd price and then jumps again after three months to that level. What you will call this great eye or selling stocks at higher levels or the thing called distribution

 

[tanewbie]

Thts the reason I mentiones it does not suit my style. BTW, Titanor is not a bad stock.

Chamatcar theory is buy 50% on recommendation and balance 50% on declines. If stock rises 20%, then sell 80% of holdings to recover your full cost thereby making 20% free.
As I said b4, hee has greatconviction in wht he writes. Thts all I like in him and his style of writing.

 

[tanewbie]

I was really surprised to see the SBI action in less than 24 hours. Caution word is playing more than required as most of the traders are afraid to build positions in the belief that market may correct by 500 points. Rail Budget is in line with my expectations and nothing surprising has come though some efforts and beginning has been made by the Govt in the right direction i.e privatization of railways in phased manner. I would straight away assign this Budget to the PMs budget as LALU has no power to play his cards post debacle of Bihar elections.

Going by Rail Budget, even main budget will be populist keeping in mind the elections ahead. PM will give more stress on phased privatization and reforms than tax filtering which augurs well for market.

I still have reasons to believe that the consensus call of expected correction will not materialize. In fact two funds saber capital and one Japanese fund ready with 400 mn USD to be deployed from Monday. This is sufficient to keep the fire alive. India Inc still getting real hot money and nothing nonsense in the budget could tickle the wishful investors with aggressive stance. Selling can come only if something nonsense like taxing LTGC comes in the budget which I believe is not the case.

After, SBI, my next best bet for next three months irrespective of Budget will be REL. This AA gr company has so far underperformed though its competitor Tata Power has out performed. I would suggest covert all holding from Tata Power to REL with a price target of Rs 1200 in next 12 months. Delhi issue is close to be settled soon, conversion to FII will happen at Rs 900 plus, earning will spark further, UPs 5 sector will add lot of gloss and above all REL will immerge as the single largest player in infrastructure which if compared with its peers will be nothing but free of cost. RJ and Enam both have entered the stock at around 650 and completed the downside of 15% as per their standard strategy and the big innings is set. Well, even FII love this stock

 

[aca_trader]

If u want to buy bad stocks at higher levels then chamatcar is the nicest place. Experience says. I ask this person if u buy a stock like titanor component at 275 and then after some time the stock falls to 180 odd price and then jumps again after three months to that level. What you will call this great eye or selling stocks at higher levels or the thing called distribution

But we are always taught that averaging in a loosing scenario is the biggest sin, is not it?

 

[tanewbie]

Hints from Economic Survey....

Our two picks for March have fired in Feb only i.e Century Textiles and
SBI. Polaris waits for big action from RJ. IDFC was our call of the day
it started moving is extremely hot territory after we gave buy call. IDFC
could become a SPV to launch infrastructure onslaught in the right
direction and spirit. Budget might have some package for this.Apart from IDFC, TFCS and REL could be two great winners from this Budget.
REL, simply because there is a power shortage in Mumbai, Delhi and REL
could do a better role to resolve the power crisis and at the same time
is an infrastructure story. This stock has tendency to move like elephant
and therefore wait for action. Can Reliance capital overtake REL and my
answer will be no and with the difference narrowing I would suggest all the
change the loyalty from capital to REL.
As regards Budget, Economic Survey has given enough hint of soft
Budget.
Market is still nervous on the rumour of LTCG tax which is very
unlikely. More than FM, PM is more concerned about the Budget and he will speak only High Commands wishes. Also Bush is in India this week which can be forgotten while deciding the Budget because the market sentiments ought
to be good on the day US president visits India.
Stock specific calls is that investors should either wait in our recommended stock till the time we either give exit call or the till the desired period or else should not invest at all. Please note that we are trying find out stocks which are good in our opinion but not necessarily they will move in the upward direction only. If stock like Aftek can correct by more than 60% then any stock on given day can correct. Have patience for your turn to come. Only 10 days are enough out 365 days to double your stock. When A gr rising B gr will necessarily take back seat except triggers in particular stocks.
Chamatkar continues to hold Basant, Sanguine, Triveni Glass and Pennar
Industries.

 

[tanewbie]

feel the FM has done well with Budget as he has not fingered with ant of the tax proposals. Increase in MAT by 2.5% could be considered negative in the short run for companies like Bharati but in my opinion nothing should be read as negative because these companies though may have to cough up 2.5% across the board, will get tax credit in the year in which they actually make profits and the period of such credit has been raised from 5 to 7 years. In any case, if the so called co is not likely to make real profits then there is no fun investing in such companies even if MAT is 0. Therefore the issue of MAT is inconsequential as far as Budget is concerned. Other negative is raising 2% service tax which I feel is more taxing but for industry it is sacrifice at the cost of growth of the country.

Positive ones are reduction in excise duty, custom duty, no fingering with capital gains and above all sticking with fiscal responsibility act for maintaining 3.8% fiscal deficit which is loved by FII across the board and will help bring more FDI. In fact, revised fiscal deficit for 05-06 from 4.3 to 4.1% was a real surprise from the FM. In order to maintain 3.8% fiscal deficit more and more revenue generation was must and FM has projected 30% rise in corporation tax and 16% hike in income tax and 48% from service tax which in my opinion is much achievable figures in comparison to previous year where doubts were cast on the sustainability of 4.3% fiscal deficit due to dynamic expectations. This one analysis is more than sufficient to keep FII interest alive in the Indian market.

Even the short term borrowing of the Govt has been reduced by Rs 8636 crs which is really heartening and welcome sign. Deficit financing is an indicator of weak economy. The Budget overall is oriented in the right direction and going forward in next three years practically everything will be net based and the speed at which efforts are being made are laudable and place in India ahead of US. This will re-rate all internet based companies in India and take them to new sky. Hardly a genuine internet company is listed on the exchange except Chamatkar.net India Ltd. Rediff and Sify the two leaders in the industry are listed on Nasdaq. Indiabulls and Indiainfoline are having different modules and cashing on franchise valuations which are not a real capitalisation method.

We maintain our initial target of 10800 before deciding the further trend. From tomorrow B gr shares will find takes as all fence sitters will jump into the band wagon.

 

[rvgandhi]

Hi Agilent

I really dont know who chamatcar is. I get his comments through email from a yahoo group where its posted and I post it here.

Can you share details of the yahoo group that you source this information from ?

 

[aca_trader]

feel the FM has done well with Budget as he has not fingered with ant of the tax proposals. Increase in MAT by 2.5% could be considered negative in the short run for companies like Bharati but in my opinion nothing should be read as negative because these companies though may have to cough up 2.5% across the board, will get tax credit in the year in which they actually make profits and the period of such credit has been raised from 5 to 7 years. In any case, if the so called co is not likely to make real profits then there is no fun investing in such companies even if MAT is 0. Therefore the issue of MAT is inconsequential as far as Budget is concerned.

This write-up does not portray a clear picture of MAT. MAT is applicable to the companies that make real profits but they don't pay tax due to certain exemptions available to them under different provisions of the Income Tax Act. The writer has confused the profits computed for the purpose of payment of Income Tax with the accounting profits/book profits. MAT will certainly affect adversaly the short-term cash-flow of the companies earning profits but enjoying Income Tax Exemptions.

going forward in next three years practically everything will be net based and the speed at which efforts are being made are laudable and place in India ahead of US. This will re-rate all internet based companies in India and take them to new sky.

Even if this does happen, the international internet companies like e-bay and skype will benefit more due to strong experience in their respective areas. Afterall, with internet growth, one doesn't need to stick to companies within geographical boundries of India.

Indiabulls and Indiainfoline are having different modules and cashing on franchise valuations which are not a real capitalisation method.

Indiabulls has a branch network and not franchisee network. In any case, franchisees give access to new markets and help the companies grow. Any valuation method has to take into account the growth in topline as a result of franchisee network compared with the cost of operating that network.

TA,
We know that these are chamatkar views, hence a reply not to you but for the members of the forum.

Best Reagrds,
--Ashish